TPST

Rating neutralAI Memo

Tempest Therapeutics

As of 2026-08-05/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-08-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

TPST-4003 first clinical dosing planned for Q4 2026 • 2026-12-31

Base target: $1 / p=55% prob

Biggest risk

The evidence is early-stage and based on limited interim data. The company remains exposed to clinical execution, regulatory, manufacturing, financing, and dilution risk. Analyst coverage and recent trusted-news flow are sparse, so forward estimates and market validation are limited.

Invalidation

Break below $1 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

TPST-2003 interim activity, manufacturing progress, and planned late-2026 registrational preparation could materially improve the value of the platform. The newly disclosed TPST-4003 in vivo CAR-T program adds additional optionality, with first dosing targeted for Q4 2026.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-08-05

Base target

p=55%

Bull target

p=15%

Bear target

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Financing and dilution remain near-term risks
TPST-2003 registrational-study preparation
Initial TPST-4003 clinical data

BearKey bullets

Analyst coverage, consensus estimates, and target-revision data are unavailable.
Clinical, regulatory, manufacturing, and enrollment execution could delay TPST-2003 or TPST-4003 milestones.
Financing needs, warrants, and potential share issuance create dilution risk.

WatchKey bullets

TPST-4003 first clinical dosing planned for Q4 2026

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $1 (p=55%)

Target spread vs base: +92% / -29%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $2 (p=15%)Base Target: $1 (p=55%)Bear Target: $1 (p=30%)

Commentary

This is a low-coverage, filing- and company-release-led micro-cap biotech setup. The deterministic prior remains negative, with expected returns of -5.94% over 20 days and -12.47% over 120 days. The new TPST-4003 announcement improves catalyst density, but the evidence remains too early and social, options, short-interest, and analyst-revision signals are unavailable.

As of 2026-08-05 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Financing and dilution remain near-term risks
TPST-2003 registrational-study preparation
Initial TPST-4003 clinical data

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$2 / p=15% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$1 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$1 / p=30% prob

Analysis 2026-08-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-12-31
TPST-4003 first clinical dosing planned for Q4 2026
Tempest plans an investigator-initiated study of approximately 10 patients with nervous-system autoimmune diseases, with first patient dosing anticipated in Q4 2026 [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-15].
Prob 55.00% • Move 25.00% • Priced-in 25.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Financing and dilution remain near-term risks
2026-09-30
The latest 10-Q contains registered-direct-offering, ATM-program, and warrant disclosures, leaving capital-raising and dilution mechanics important risks for this micro-cap biotech [#SEC-10Q-2026-05-14].
Prob 70% • Move -15% • Priced-in 70%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

TPST-2003 registrational-study preparation
2026-12-31
Tempest reported interim TPST-2003 results showing a 100% complete-response rate among 15 CAR-T-naive efficacy-evaluable patients, selected Cincinnati Children’s AGCTC as lead manufacturing partner, and targeted a first potentially registrational study later in 2026; the sample remains small and interim [#SEC-8K-2026-05-14].
Prob 50% • Move 45% • Priced-in 30%
Initial TPST-4003 clinical data
2027-06-30
Initial clinical data from the planned TPST-4003 study are expected in the first half of 2027, but the program is preclinical-to-early-clinical and carries substantial execution and clinical risk [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-15].
Prob 35% • Move 60% • Priced-in 15%

Risks

Analyst coverage, consensus estimates, and target-revision data are unavailable.
Clinical, regulatory, manufacturing, and enrollment execution could delay TPST-2003 or TPST-4003 milestones.
Financing needs, warrants, and potential share issuance create dilution risk.
No recent trusted-news flow or usable social coverage limits independent confirmation of sentiment.
Small, interim clinical dataset may not predict later registrational outcomes.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
BCDA	Loose same-sector micro-cap biotech comparator; useful mainly for framing event volatility and financing sensitivity rather than operating parity.
BIVI	Small biotechnology peer with limited direct program comparability; relevant primarily for illustrating high clinical and capital-raising risk.
GTBP	Same-sector micro-cap biotech comparator with loose business overlap and potentially similar binary-event trading behavior.
KALA	Small biotechnology peer; useful for sector-risk framing, but not a direct indication or platform comparable.
PTN	Same-sector micro-cap comparator; relevant for valuation and financing-risk context, not direct operating comparison.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-08-05

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Symbol

Summary

BCDA

Loose same-sector micro-cap biotech comparator; useful mainly for framing event volatility and financing sensitivity rather than operating parity.

BIVI

Small biotechnology peer with limited direct program comparability; relevant primarily for illustrating high clinical and capital-raising risk.

GTBP

Same-sector micro-cap biotech comparator with loose business overlap and potentially similar binary-event trading behavior.

KALA

Small biotechnology peer; useful for sector-risk framing, but not a direct indication or platform comparable.

PTN

Same-sector micro-cap comparator; relevant for valuation and financing-risk context, not direct operating comparison.