TPC

AI Memo

Tutor Perini

As of 2026-10-24/Confidence medium/Horizon 6‑12m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-10-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

6‑12m

Key catalyst

New awards enter third-quarter backlog • 2026-11-15

Base target: $87 / p=50% prob

Biggest risk

Backlog is not guaranteed profit: delays, cost overruns, weaker project mix, or slower collections could undermine the 2027 earnings outlook. Recent awards provide visibility but do not establish their eventual margins.

Invalidation

Break below $58 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Large backlog, stronger second-quarter project profitability, raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance, and recent awards support further earnings growth if execution and collections hold. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05] Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/77543/000007754326000184/tpc20260805ex991.htm

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-10-24

Base target

$87

p=50%

Bull target

$108

p=30%

Bear target

$58

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Convert backlog into cash-generating profit
Large backlog, stronger second-quarter project profitability, raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance, and recent awards support further earnings growth if execution and collections hold.
[#SEC-8K-2026-08-05] Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/77543/000007754326000184/tpc20260805ex991.htm

BearKey bullets

August–September Form 4 filings show director and executive-chairman open-market sales; these are ownership signals, not evidence of weaker operations.
[#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-11] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-28] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-09-02]
Complex, multiyear construction projects expose backlog conversion to scheduling, labor, subcontractor, and cost execution risk.

WatchKey bullets

New awards enter third-quarter backlog

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

6‑12m

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $87 (p=50%)

Target spread vs base: +24% / -33%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $108 (p=30%)Base Target: $87 (p=50%)Bear Target: $58 (p=20%)

Commentary

Company-confirmed awards and the raised August guidance support a positive but measured tone. The packet does not establish a dependable post-award price reaction or current analyst revisions. Social, options, short-interest, and employee measures are unavailable; zeroes above indicate missing data, not neutral readings.

As of 2026-10-24 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Convert backlog into cash-generating profit

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$108 / p=30% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$87 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$58 / p=20% prob

Analysis 2026-10-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.45

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-11-15
New awards enter third-quarter backlog
Tutor Perini says its $315 million Coast Guard fuel-pier award and Fisk Electric's $24 million data-center award will enter third-quarter backlog. The next report can test whether awards replenish work as projects advance. The date is an estimated reporting checkpoint, not an announced earnings date. [#PR-2026-10-05] [#PR-2026-10-06] Sources: https://investors.tutorperini.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2026/Perini-Management-Services-Inc--Awarded-315-Million-Maritime-Infrastructure-Project-to-Construct-Fuel-Pier-to-Support-Major-Cutter-Operations-at-U-S--Coast-Guard-Base-Kodiak/default.aspx and https://investors.tutorperini.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2026/Fisk-Electric-Awarded-24-Million-Data-Center-Electrical-Project-Expanding-Prefabrication-Capabilities-in-Houston/default.aspx
Prob 85.00% • Move 4.00% • Priced-in 60.00%
EVENT2027-02-28
Raised 2026 guidance faces an execution test
The August earnings exhibit reported second-quarter revenue of $1.6 billion, adjusted EPS of $1.74, and raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.15–$5.45 from $4.90–$5.30. Subsequent results must sustain higher-margin project activity and cash generation. The June 30 10-Q is the filed period baseline; the date below is an estimated year-end reporting checkpoint. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05] [#10-Q-2026-08-05] Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/77543/000007754326000184/tpc20260805ex991.htm
Prob 65.00% • Move 9.00% • Priced-in 55.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Convert backlog into cash-generating profit
2027-12-31
Tutor Perini reported $19.9 billion of June 30 backlog and $334.1 million of first-half operating cash flow. Management expects 2027 adjusted EPS substantially above the top of its raised 2026 range, but that outcome depends on project execution, mix, and collections. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05] Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/77543/000007754326000184/tpc20260805ex991.htm
Prob 60% • Move 20% • Priced-in 45%

Risks

August–September Form 4 filings show director and executive-chairman open-market sales; these are ownership signals, not evidence of weaker operations. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-11] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-28] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-09-02]
Complex, multiyear construction projects expose backlog conversion to scheduling, labor, subcontractor, and cost execution risk.
Second-quarter operating improvement partly reflected a $27.5 million year-over-year decrease in share-based compensation expense; headline growth should not be attributed solely to project margins. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
The $315 million fuel-pier project's anticipated substantial completion is September 2030, so near-term backlog recognition does not imply near-term cash realization. [#PR-2026-10-05]

Peers

Symbol	Summary
FLR	Fluor offers a large-project engineering and construction comparison, though its global EPC and industrial mix differs from Tutor Perini's. Source: https://investor.fluor.com/
MTZ	MasTec is an infrastructure-construction comparison, but its communications, power-delivery, and pipeline mix limits direct valuation comparability. Source: https://investors.mastec.com/

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-10-24

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Symbol

Summary

FLR

Fluor offers a large-project engineering and construction comparison, though its global EPC and industrial mix differs from Tutor Perini's. Source: https://investor.fluor.com/

MTZ

MasTec is an infrastructure-construction comparison, but its communications, power-delivery, and pipeline mix limits direct valuation comparability. Source: https://investors.mastec.com/