AI Stock Memo: TMDX - TransMedics Group - RankAlpha

TMDX

AI Memo

TransMedics Group

As of 2026-02-25/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Quarterly earnings & guidance (est.) • 2026-05-26

Expected move: +89%

Biggest risk

Bear: slower hospital adoption, reimbursement headwinds, or weak near‑term results that compress multiples and delay profitability.

Invalidation

Break below $114 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull: successful commercial expansion, improved reimbursement, and rising procedure volumes validate pricing and drive sustained double‑digit revenue growth.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-25

Base target

$145

p=60%

Bull target

$170

p=20%

Bear target

$114

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly earnings & guidance (est.)
Commercial adoption / reimbursement progress
Bull: successful commercial expansion, improved reimbursement, and rising procedure volumes validate pricing and drive sustained double‑digit revenue growth.

BearKey bullets

Earnings/guidance miss
Reimbursement/regulatory setbacks
Slower hospital adoption

WatchKey bullets

ANCHOR: {"price": 144.66, "timestamp_utc": "2026-02-25T13:41:11+00:00", "source": "broker_last"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Targets are anchored to the authoritative broker last price above and aligned with published analyst bounds: scenario base_target (144.75) is essentially the analyst median (144.75) and lies between the analyst low (114) and high (170) [#SERP-3], [#SERP-7].

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $145 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +122% / +49%

Vs latest close: Bull +122% · Base +89% · Bear +49%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $170 (p=20%)Base Target: $145 (p=60%)Bear Target: $114 (p=20%)

Commentary

Consensus is mixed with median targets near the current price, implying balanced near-term sentiment. Earnings will drive short-term volatility; long-term sentiment hinges on adoption and reimbursement.

As of 2026-02-25 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull: successful commercial expansion, improved reimbursement, and rising procedure volumes validate pricing and drive sustained double‑digit revenue growth.

Bear Case

Bear: slower hospital adoption, reimbursement headwinds, or weak near‑term results that compress multiples and delay profitability.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly earnings & guidance (est.)
Commercial adoption / reimbursement progress

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-25Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$144.75

Range (USD)

$114.00 - $170.00

Count

Query: TransMedics Group Inc Common (TMDX) analyst consensus price target high low average

TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) Stock Price, News, Quote ...
Search result #1
TransMedics (TMDX) Q4 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates ... Analyst Insights: TMDX. View More. Analyst Price Targets. 114.00 Low. 147.60 ...
Open source
TransMedics (TMDX) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #2
According to projections from 10 analysts, the average 12-month price target for TransMedics is 144.20, with a high estimate of 170 and a low estimate of 114.
Open source
Transmedics Group (TMDX) Stock Forecast, Price Targets ...
Search result #3
The average price target is $146.86 with a high forecast of $170.00 and a low forecast of $115.00. The average price target represents a 9.39% change from the ...
Extracted: $146.86, $170.00, $115.00Open source
TransMedics Group (NASDAQ:TMDX) Stock Price Expected to Rise ...
Search result #4
Based on data from MarketBeat, the company has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and an average price target of $145.25. Check Out Our Latest ...
Extracted: $145.25Open source17 minutes ago
TransMedics Group, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #5
Consensus TransMedics Group, Inc. Equities. TMDX. US89377M1099. Advanced ... Low Price Target. 114.00USD. Spread / Lowest Target. -15.34%. Analyst Consensus ...
Extracted: $114.00Open source
TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) Analyst Ratings, ...
Search result #6
See TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) stock analyst estimates, including earnings and revenue, EPS, upgrades and downgrades.
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$170 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$145 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$114 / p=20% prob

Price $77 as of 2026-07-31

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 49%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +122% · Base +89% · Bear +49%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly earnings & guidance (est.)
2026-05-26
Earnings and guidance—especially guidance—are the primary near-term drivers of price; date estimated per cadence [#SERP-1], [#SERP-4].
Prob 70% • Move 12% • Priced-in 45%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Commercial adoption / reimbursement progress
2027-02-25
Wider hospital adoption and reimbursement expansion would produce material revenue upside; timing remains uncertain [#SERP-2], [#SERP-3].
Prob 40% • Move 50% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Earnings/guidance miss
Reimbursement/regulatory setbacks
Slower hospital adoption

Peers

Symbol	Summary
TMO	Thermo Fisher: large life‑science platform and distribution scale that can influence adoption.
IART	Integra: surgical‑device sales channels relevant to transplant‑support adoption.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: TransMedics Group Inc Common (TMDX) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-25