B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$115.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TMDX
TransMedics GroupCNasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is supported by record Q2 revenue, 21% growth, 29% service growth, raised full-year revenue guidance, management-described sequential gross-margin expansion, and continued investment in organ-preservation and logistics infrastructure. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.1.
What can break
Available price data do not establish whether the initial post-earnings reaction was sustained or reversed.
Momentum
64
Value
54
Sentiment
64
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $90.00 · Bull $115.00 · Bear $65.00Analysis 2026-08-07; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-17 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-17
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-17
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-17. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $97.30
Why
Momentum64 · Δ7d -3.8
Value54 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment64 · Δ7d -4.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Available price data do not establish whether the initial post-earnings reaction was sustained or reversed.
- • Director Thomas J. Gunderson reported an open-market sale of 9,624 shares on June 15, 2026. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-17]
- • The bear case is that revenue growth is not yet translating into comparable earnings growth: Q2 operating margin and diluted EPS deteriorated materially year over year.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-04
Q2 results, raised guidance and post-print digestion
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
64
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-3.8
Δ21d
-16.9
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
64
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.1
Δ21d
+3.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 63.9 / Value 53.8 / Sentiment 63.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-07. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$90.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$65.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.06B
Beta
2.04
Shares Out
34.68M
P/E (TTM)
53.0
P/S (TTM)
7.62
P/FCF (TTM)
35.77
Rev YoY
+20.7%
EPS YoY
-55.8%
Gross Margin
+57.8%
Op Margin
+12.2%
Net Debt
$30.91M
Current Ratio
6.63
As of 2026-09-17 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data