TJX

Rating buyAI Memo

TJX Companies

As of 2026-02-26/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Next quarterly earnings release • 2026-05-27

Expected move: +7%

Biggest risk

A deeper consumer slowdown, inventory missteps, or margin compression from freight/markdowns could push multiples and fundamentals lower, producing sustained underperformance versus peers and dragging the stock below current levels.

Invalidation

Break below $140 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

TJX benefits from resilient consumer demand for value retail, continued share gains in apparel and home categories, and operating leverage from scale—driving upside toward the high end of sell-side targets if comps and margins beat expectations [#SERP-3].

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-26

Base target

$166

p=55%

Bull target

$203

p=25%

Bear target

$140

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Ongoing off-price expansion and inventory normalization
TJX benefits from resilient consumer demand for value retail, continued share gains in apparel and home categories, and operating leverage from scale—driving upside toward the high end of sell-side targets if comps and margins beat expectations [#SERP-3].
ANCHOR: {"price": 157.84, "timestamp_utc": "2026-02-26T17:42:45+00:00", "source": "broker_last"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Method: scenario targets are anchored to the authoritative price above and set to reflect a base roughly in-line with the sell-side median, a bull that reaches consensus upside, and a conservative bear reflecting execution or demand weakness.

BearKey bullets

Disappointing same-store sales or margin guidance
Inventory glut forcing deeper markdowns
Wider-than-expected consumer discretionary slowdown

WatchKey bullets

Next quarterly earnings release

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $166 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +31% / -10%

Vs latest close: Bull +31% · Base +7% · Bear -10%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $203 (p=25%)Base Target: $166 (p=55%)Bear Target: $140 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market consensus shows mild positive skew with median price targets slightly above the current anchor, reflecting modest upside expectations [#SERP-1]. Commentary centers on TJX's resilient off-price positioning and growth optionality, tempered by macro sensitivity and inventory execution risk [#SERP-5]. Recent aggregator snapshots show most sell-side targets clustered in the mid‑$160s to low‑$170s range [#SERP-2].

As of 2026-02-26 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Ongoing off-price expansion and inventory normalization

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-26Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$165.76

Range (USD)

$94.37 - $202.65

Count

Query: TJX Companies Inc Common (TJX) analyst consensus price target high low average

TJX Companies (TJX) Stock Forecast & Price Target - MarketBeat
Search result #1
According to the 24 analysts' twelve-month price targets for TJX Companies, the average price target is $164.76. The highest price target for TJX is $193.00, ...
Extracted: $164.76, $193.00Open source
TJX (TJX) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #2
According to projections from 18 analysts, the average 12-month price target for TJX is 167.72 USD, with a high estimate of 193 USD and a low estimate of ...
Extracted: $167.72, $193.00Open source
The TJX Companies (TJX) Stock Price & Overview - Stock Analysis
Search result #3
According to 16 analysts, the average rating for TJX stock is "Strong Buy." The 12-month stock price target is $166.75, which is an increase of 7.02% from the ...
Extracted: $166.75Open source
TJX Companies, Inc. (The) TJX Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #4
3. Hold. 4. Under-perform. 5. Sell. Analyst Price Targets. 100.00 Low. 166.28 Average. 156.51 Current. 193.00 High. Analyst Recommendations.
Open source
TJX Companies, Inc. (The) Analyst Forecasts - Quiver Quantitative
Search result #5
The median price target is a 4.66% change from the last price of $157.66. The highest analyst price target is $193.00, and the lowest forecast is $140.00. * ...
Extracted: $157.66, $193.00, $140.00Open source
What is the current Price Target and Forecast for The TJX ...
Search result #6
The forecasts range from a low of $146.88 to a high of $193.00. The average price target represents an increase of 7.95% from the last closing price of $157.66.
Extracted: $146.88, $193.00, $157.66Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$203 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$166 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$140 / p=20% prob

Price $155 as of 2026-05-28

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 7%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +31% · Base +7% · Bear -10%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-27
Next quarterly earnings release
Company quarterly results and guidance typically move consensus on same-store sales and margin trajectory; market consensus price targets summarized in sell-side aggregates may update after release [#SERP-1], [#SERP-2]. Assumed date used where issuer has not published a firm date.
Prob 80.00% • Move 4.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Ongoing off-price expansion and inventory normalization
2027-02-26
Execution of store growth and inventory management can sustain earnings multiple expansion over 12 months; long runway tied to secular value-retail demand [#SERP-3].
Prob 65% • Move 18% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Disappointing same-store sales or margin guidance
Inventory glut forcing deeper markdowns
Wider-than-expected consumer discretionary slowdown

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ROST	Off-price apparel peer with similar value-seeking customer base; comparable margin sensitivity to merchandise mix and traffic.
BURL	Competes in the off-price channel with faster store expansion history; higher growth optionality but greater execution risk.
M	Full-price department-store peer exposed to promotional risk and different inventory dynamics; useful contrast on earnings cyclicality.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: TJX Companies Inc Common (TJX) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-26

AI Stock Memo: TJX - TJX Companies - RankAlpha