TENB

Rating neutralTentativeAI Memo

Tenable

As of 2026-05-29/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

memo remains a monitoring view with limited forward evidence and should not be standard-conviction

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Investor Day reset provides a medium-term monitoring point • 2026-05-21

Expected move: -3%

Biggest risk

The main bear case is that expansion has already slowed to 105% and management flagged macro/policy-related purchasing delays, so revenue acceleration may remain muted. If the Investor Day targets do not show up in bookings or growth, the stock may stay range-bound or re-rate lower [#10-Q-2026-05-05].

Invalidation

Break below $22 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Tenable can defend a stronger multiple if Tenable Hexa and the broader exposure-management story translate into customer growth, continued cross-sell, and margin expansion. The Q1 filing showed positive operating income and cash flow plus solid customer/ACV metrics, but the evidence is still more supportive than decisive [#10-Q-2026-05-05].

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-29

Base target

$30

p=47%

Bull target

$34

p=28%

Bear target

$22

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Near-term upside is capped by slower expansion and macro-sensitive deal timing
Q1 platform metrics support the thesis but do not yet prove acceleration
Tenable can defend a stronger multiple if Tenable Hexa and the broader exposure-management story translate into customer growth, continued cross-sell, and margin expansion.

BearKey bullets

Dollar-based net expansion has moderated to 105%, suggesting less upsell momentum than the market would want to see [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
Macro and policy-driven purchasing delays could slow deal closure and extend sales cycles [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
No recent analyst revision or post-event price-reaction evidence was provided in the packet, so conviction should stay limited until follow-through appears.

WatchKey bullets

Investor Day reset provides a medium-term monitoring point

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $30 (p=47%)

Bull/Bear spread: +10% / -30%

Vs latest close: Bull +10% · Base -3% · Bear -30%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $34 (p=28%)Base Target: $30 (p=47%)Bear Target: $22 (p=25%)

Commentary

Coverage is medium, recent news flow in the packet is thin, and there is no trusted post-event price reaction or analyst-revision evidence to extend the thesis beyond primary-source filings. The quality gate flags this as tentative, so the setup should remain a monitoring view anchored to the Investor Day and Q1 filing rather than a standard-conviction momentum trade.

As of 2026-05-29 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Near-term upside is capped by slower expansion and macro-sensitive deal timing
Q1 platform metrics support the thesis but do not yet prove acceleration

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$34 / p=28% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$30 / p=47% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$22 / p=25% prob

Price $31 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 3%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +10% · Base -3% · Bear -30%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-21
Investor Day reset provides a medium-term monitoring point
The May 21 Investor Day used the 8-K filing to frame Tenable Hexa and a longer-dated operating plan that points to high-single-digit to low-double-digit revenue growth and roughly 31% unlevered free cash flow margin by FY2029. That can support a re-rating only if the company converts the plan into visible customer adoption and sustained margin progression [#8-K-2026-05-21].
Prob 58.00% • Move 4.00% • Priced-in 55.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Near-term upside is capped by slower expansion and macro-sensitive deal timing
2026-06-30
Management said macroeconomic conditions and U.S. policy decisions may lengthen purchasing and approval phases in 2026, while dollar-based net expansion slipped to 105%. That keeps the near-term setup cautious until the company proves the Investor Day targets are translating into faster growth and steadier bookings [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
Prob 43% • Move -3% • Priced-in 33%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Q1 platform metrics support the thesis but do not yet prove acceleration
2026-12-31
The Q1 2026 10-Q showed 10% revenue growth to $262.1M, 406 new enterprise platform customers, 2,204 customers above $100K ACV, 105% dollar-based net expansion, and positive operating income and operating cash flow. Those metrics support continued platform expansion, but the softer expansion rate keeps this from being a high-conviction growth inflection [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
Prob 53% • Move 5% • Priced-in 44%

Risks

Dollar-based net expansion has moderated to 105%, suggesting less upsell momentum than the market would want to see [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
Macro and policy-driven purchasing delays could slow deal closure and extend sales cycles [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
No recent analyst revision or post-event price-reaction evidence was provided in the packet, so conviction should stay limited until follow-through appears.
The FY2029 margin and growth framework from Investor Day is still a longer-dated promise rather than a near-term proof point [#8-K-2026-05-21].

Peers

Symbol	Summary
BRZE	Same-sector enterprise software peer with comparable scrutiny on growth durability, go-to-market efficiency, and margin leverage; useful for reading how the market prices platform expansion versus profitability.
CCC	Same-sector software peer with a more vertical workflow angle; helpful for comparing enterprise spend sensitivity and execution discipline, though the product mix is less security-focused.
FSLY	Adjacent software/infrastructure peer that can help gauge how investors treat durable recurring revenue versus cyclical demand and margin repair, but direct product overlap is limited.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-29

AI Stock Memo: TENB - Tenable - RankAlpha