AI Stock Memo: CLBT - Cellebrite DI - RankAlpha

CLBT

AI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Cellebrite DI

As of 2026-05-17/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence low

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

low

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 beat with maintained FY26 outlook and explicit Q2 ARR acceleration • 2026-05-14

Expected move: -2%

Biggest risk

The post-print read is not cleanly bullish. Shares bounced on May 14 but slipped on May 15, and secondary coverage reported Needham cut its price target to $15 from $18 while maintaining Buy, implying that better numbers alone may not overcome multiple compression and execution skepticism.

Invalidation

Break below $11 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Primary-source support improved after earnings: Q1 ARR growth held at 21%, free-cash-flow margin was 32% TTM, and management pointed to multiple new offerings plus Q2 ARR acceleration, which supports a cautious positive read if adoption converts into bookings [#PR-2026-05-14].

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

low

As of

2026-05-17

Base target

$16

p=45%

Bull target

$19

p=25%

Bear target

$11

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Post-earnings investor conference stretch can clarify whether the beat is durable
FedRAMP High plus new AI and investigation products broaden the federal and platform story
Primary-source support improved after earnings: Q1 ARR growth held at 21%, free-cash-flow margin was 32% TTM, and management pointed to multiple new offerings plus Q2 ARR acceleration, which supports a cautious positive read if adoption converts into bookings [#PR-2026-05-14].

BearKey bullets

Cellebrite remains exposed to execution risk on multiple simultaneous launches and integrations, including SCG drone forensics, device-access releases, and broader cloud workflow expansion.
Federal and public-sector demand can be slowed by procurement timing, budget cycles, and long authorization or reuse processes even after FedRAMP High.
Genesis was still in beta testing in the May 14 earnings release, so AI enthusiasm may outrun near-term paid deployment and revenue conversion.

WatchKey bullets

Q1 beat with maintained FY26 outlook and explicit Q2 ARR acceleration

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

low

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $16 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +17% / -34%

Vs latest close: Bull +17% · Base -2% · Bear -34%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $19 (p=25%)Base Target: $16 (p=45%)Bear Target: $11 (p=30%)

Commentary

The immediate earnings reaction was positive but not decisive: CLBT closed at $13.12 on May 14, 2026, up 8.43% from $12.10 on May 13, then eased to $12.98 on May 15, down 1.07% day over day but still above the pre-print close. News tone around the release was beat-positive, yet delayed analyst revision evidence is limited and includes at least one reported target cut, so this still reads as a cautious monitoring setup rather than a high-conviction rerating call.

As of 2026-05-17 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Post-earnings investor conference stretch can clarify whether the beat is durable
FedRAMP High plus new AI and investigation products broaden the federal and platform story

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$19 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$16 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$11 / p=30% prob

Price $16 as of 2026-07-15

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 2%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +17% · Base -2% · Bear -34%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.15

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-14
Q1 beat with maintained FY26 outlook and explicit Q2 ARR acceleration
Cellebrite reported Q1 2026 revenue of $128.3M (+19% YoY), subscription revenue of $117.9M (+23%), ARR of $493.0M (+21%), 115% net retention, and guided Q2 ARR to $510M-$513M and FY26 ARR to $567M-$573M, while management said Q2 should show ARR acceleration [#PR-2026-05-14].
Prob 70.00% • Move 9.00% • Priced-in 55.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Post-earnings investor conference stretch can clarify whether the beat is durable
2026-05-18
Cellebrite has investor events scheduled for May 18, 2026, May 27, 2026, and May 28, 2026, giving management near-term opportunities to reinforce the Q1 print, FedRAMP progress, and product-cycle narrative [#IR-2026-05-17].
Prob 55% • Move 4% • Priced-in 35%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

FedRAMP High plus new AI and investigation products broaden the federal and platform story
2026-12-31
The May 6 FedRAMP High authorization makes Cellebrite Government Cloud reusable across federal agencies, while the Q1 release highlighted Guardian Investigate general availability, Genesis early access, Spring 2026 device-access upgrades, and the SCG drone-forensics acquisition as additional expansion vectors [#IR-2026-05-06] [#PR-2026-05-14].
Prob 45% • Move 16% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

Cellebrite remains exposed to execution risk on multiple simultaneous launches and integrations, including SCG drone forensics, device-access releases, and broader cloud workflow expansion.
Federal and public-sector demand can be slowed by procurement timing, budget cycles, and long authorization or reuse processes even after FedRAMP High.
Genesis was still in beta testing in the May 14 earnings release, so AI enthusiasm may outrun near-term paid deployment and revenue conversion.
The company’s own filings and releases continue to flag geopolitical, export-control, compliance, cyber, and reputational risks tied to its Israeli operations and sensitive investigative end markets.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
VRNS	Varonis is a closer software/security workflow comp on recurring revenue and data-investigation analytics, though it lacks Cellebrite’s device-forensics and public-safety focus.
QLYS	Qualys is a useful cloud-security and compliance comp with federal exposure and strong margin discipline, but it is not a direct digital-investigation peer.
TDC	Teradata offers an enterprise analytics platform comparison for data-workflow monetization, but it is a loose comp versus Cellebrite’s law-enforcement and intelligence workflow niche.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-17