TATT

Rating neutralTentativeAI MemoPost-earnings T+3

TAT

As of 2026-05-23/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence low

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

Coverage is limited for this name. This memo is usable, but confidence is lower and evidence depth is thinner than a standard report.

Action

neutral

Confidence

low

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 2026 print was mixed but backlog stayed high • 2026-05-20

Expected move: -15%

Biggest risk

The bear case is that Q1 still missed on revenue and EPS, with execution tied to supplier disruptions and delayed deliveries, so the recovery path depends on management actually converting backlog into revenue. No clear post-print analyst target or estimate revisions were available in the supplied or checked sources, which leaves the recovery thesis unconfirmed.

Invalidation

Break below $28 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The bull case is that the quarter was noisy but not broken: the company kept a large backlog/LTAs base, improved gross margin, and turned operating cash flow positive, so if supplier disruptions fade, growth can reaccelerate from a stronger starting point [#6-K-2026-05-20].

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

low

As of

2026-05-23

Base target

$36

p=50%

Bull target

$52

p=25%

Bear target

$28

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Backlog conversion could reaccelerate growth in H2 2026
The bull case is that the quarter was noisy but not broken: the company kept a large backlog/LTAs base, improved gross margin, and turned operating cash flow positive, so if supplier disruptions fade, growth can reaccelerate from a stronger starting point [#6-K-2026-05-20].
At $37.07, the stock remains below the provided analyst median target of about $58.7, but that target should be treated cautiously because analyst count is unavailable and the post-print revision picture is thin.

BearKey bullets

Revenue and EPS missed in Q1, so the market will want a cleaner Q2 before re-rating the story.
Small-cap capital-goods names can de-rate quickly if backlog conversion slips or if working-capital and margin execution prove uneven.
Supplier and OEM-delivery disruptions were cited as a real operating headwind, and any delay in resolution can push revenue recognition out.

WatchKey bullets

Q1 2026 print was mixed but backlog stayed high

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

low

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $36 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +24% / -34%

Vs latest close: Bull +24% · Base -15% · Bear -34%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $52 (p=25%)Base Target: $36 (p=50%)Bear Target: $28 (p=25%)

Commentary

Post-earnings tone is mixed-to-cautious. The company source confirms the revenue/EPS miss but also the backlog and margin/cash-flow positives [#6-K-2026-05-20]. Market coverage indicated shares rose after the print, suggesting investors may have focused on backlog resilience more than the headline miss, but coverage is thin and no clear post-print analyst revisions were available, so that reaction should be treated as tentative rather than thesis-confirming.

As of 2026-05-23 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Backlog conversion could reaccelerate growth in H2 2026

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$52 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$36 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$28 / p=25% prob

Price $42 as of 2026-05-28

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 15%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +24% · Base -15% · Bear -34%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.10

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-20
Q1 2026 print was mixed but backlog stayed high
The SEC 6-K shows a mixed quarter: revenue and EPS missed, but gross margin improved, operating cash flow turned positive, and backlog/LTAs were reported at about $580M. That makes the print a near-term check on execution rather than a clean thesis break [#6-K-2026-05-20].
Prob 70.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 60.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Backlog conversion could reaccelerate growth in H2 2026
2026-12-31
Management said the OEM supplier disruptions that weighed on Q1 should resolve over the next few months, which would let the record backlog work through into Q2/H2 growth if execution normalizes [#6-K-2026-05-20].
Prob 55% • Move 15% • Priced-in 35%

Risks

Revenue and EPS missed in Q1, so the market will want a cleaner Q2 before re-rating the story.
Small-cap capital-goods names can de-rate quickly if backlog conversion slips or if working-capital and margin execution prove uneven.
Supplier and OEM-delivery disruptions were cited as a real operating headwind, and any delay in resolution can push revenue recognition out.
The available evidence did not show clear post-print analyst upgrades, target raises, or estimate revisions, so there is little external validation of the rebound thesis.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ELVA	Same-sector, similar-market-cap capital-goods comparator; useful for gauging how small-cap cyclical execution and aftermarket demand are being valued.
MEC	Closer small-cap capital-goods peer for comparing order timing, margin swing, and execution cadence.
JLHL	Broad small-cap capital-goods comparator from the candidate set; useful when direct aerospace/MRO peers are sparse.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-23

AI Stock Memo: TATT - TAT - RankAlpha