AI Stock Memo: SXC - SunCoke Energy - RankAlpha

SXC

AI Memo

SunCoke Energy

As of 2026-01-30/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Analyst target revisions post-results • 2026-07-30

Expected move: -11%

Biggest risk

Bear: prolonged weak steel demand, higher input or regulatory costs, or operational issues compress margins and push valuation toward the downside target (6.5).

Invalidation

Break below $7 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull: a sustained steel recovery, tighter coke markets, and successful pricing pass-through drive margin expansion and push the stock toward analyst highs (10.00) with improved cash flow.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-30

Base target

p=60%

Bull target

$10

p=20%

Bear target

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly results & guidance (Q1/Q2 2026)
Steel-cycle recovery / coke market tightening
Bull: a sustained steel recovery, tighter coke markets, and successful pricing pass-through drive margin expansion and push the stock toward analyst highs (10.00) with improved cash flow.

BearKey bullets

Cyclical drop in steel production reducing coke demand
Environmental/regulatory cost increases
Operational outages at cokemaking facilities

WatchKey bullets

Analyst target revisions post-results

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $8 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +11% / -28%

Vs latest close: Bull +11% · Base -11% · Bear -28%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $10 (p=20%)Base Target: $8 (p=60%)Bear Target: $7 (p=20%)

Commentary

Coverage is mixed: aggregator snapshots cluster around the analyst high (~$10.00) while median indications sit near the anchor, producing a cautious market tone ahead of results; headlines (guidance, contract news) drive short-term moves.

As of 2026-01-30 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull: a sustained steel recovery, tighter coke markets, and successful pricing pass-through drive margin expansion and push the stock toward analyst highs (10.00) with improved cash flow.

Bear Case

Bear: prolonged weak steel demand, higher input or regulatory costs, or operational issues compress margins and push valuation toward the downside target (6.5).

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly results & guidance (Q1/Q2 2026)
Steel-cycle recovery / coke market tightening

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-30Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$7.89

Range (USD)

$7.00 - $10.00

Count

Query: SunCoke Energy Inc Common (SXC) analyst consensus price target high low average

SunCoke Energy, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #1
Average target price. 10.00USD ; Spread / Average Target. +25.63% ; High Price Target. 10.00USD ; Spread / Highest target. +25.63% ; Low Price Target. 10.00USD.
Extracted: $10.00Open source
SunCoke Energy (SXC) Stock Forecast & Price Target - MarketBeat
Search result #2
According to the 2 analysts' twelve-month price targets for SunCoke Energy, the average price target is $10.00. The highest price target for SXC is $10.00, ...
Extracted: $10.00Open source
SunCoke Energy, Inc. (SXC) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #3
SUNCOKE ENERGY INC has an Investment Rating of SELL; a target price of $7.000000; an Industry Subrating of Medium; a Management Subrating of Low; a Safety ...
Extracted: $7.00Open source
SunCoke Energy Consensus Estimates (SXC) - Investing.com NG
Search result #4
SunCoke Energy has a potential Upside of +39.86%, based on analysts' average price target. How Has SunCoke Energy Stock Performed Over the Past 52 Weeks?
Open source
SunCoke Energy Inc. Analyst Estimates - SXC - MarketWatch
Search result #5
Stock Price Targets. High, $10.00. Median, $10.00. Low, $10.00. Average, $10.00. Current Price, $7.96. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. SXC will report 2025 earnings ...
Extracted: $10.00, $7.96Open source
SXC Analyst Ratings for Suncoke Energy Stock - Barchart.com
Search result #6
... Analyst Target Prices. HIGH TARGET. MEAN TARGET. LOW TARGET. 52 WK High. 52 WK Low. Average Analyst Ratings. 3 Mths Ago. Moderate Buy. 3.67.
Open sourceJan 16, 2026

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$10 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$8 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$7 / p=20% prob

Price $9 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 11%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +11% · Base -11% · Bear -28%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-07-30
Analyst target revisions post-results
Analysts typically refresh 12-month targets after full-year results or investor commentary; this can compress or widen the visible target range.
Prob 50.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 35.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly results & guidance (Q1/Q2 2026)
2026-04-30
Earnings and updated 2026 guidance will be the primary near-term driver; investors will focus on coke volumes, utilization, and input-cost pass-through.
Prob 65% • Move 7% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Steel-cycle recovery / coke market tightening
2027-01-30
Sustained recovery in steel production and tighter coke markets would support higher realizations and utilization over multiple quarters.
Prob 40% • Move 25% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Cyclical drop in steel production reducing coke demand
Environmental/regulatory cost increases
Operational outages at cokemaking facilities
Volatile coal/energy input costs compressing margins

Peers

Symbol	Summary
CLF	Large integrated steel producer; its coke demand is a direct proxy for SunCoke volumes.
NUE	Nucor — North American steel demand proxy, useful for regional demand trends.
KOP	Koppers — exposure to coke/carbon products and regulatory pressures similar to SunCoke.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: SunCoke Energy Inc Common (SXC) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-30