AI Stock Memo: SUPN - Supernus - RankAlpha

SUPN

Rating buyAI Memo

Supernus

As of 2026-02-25/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Analyst target revisions / re-rating • 2026-05-26

Expected move: +35%

Biggest risk

Bear case assumes weaker-than-expected sales or negative guidance leading to re-pricing toward the analyst low; pipeline setbacks or loss of market share could deepen downside.

Invalidation

Break below $51 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case assumes successful commercial momentum and positive analyst re-rating toward the high end of consensus, validating premium multiple and driving price toward the analyst high.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-25

Base target

$62

p=55%

Bull target

$68

p=25%

Bear target

$51

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Next quarterly earnings (estimated)
Pipeline / commercial execution milestone
Bull case assumes successful commercial momentum and positive analyst re-rating toward the high end of consensus, validating premium multiple and driving price toward the analyst high.

BearKey bullets

Analyst downgrades or consensus target compression
Regulatory or reimbursement setbacks for marketed products
Weaker-than-expected quarterly revenue/guidance

WatchKey bullets

Analyst target revisions / re-rating

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $62 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +50% / +13%

Vs latest close: Bull +50% · Base +35% · Bear +13%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $68 (p=25%)Base Target: $62 (p=55%)Bear Target: $51 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market consensus shows modest upside vs. current quote with median targets near $61.50 and a high near $68.25, supporting a cautiously constructive tone [#SERP-5][#SERP-7]. Public aggregator pages and recent analyst notes reflect a clustered range, implying limited but tangible upside in the near term [#SERP-1].

As of 2026-02-25 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull case assumes successful commercial momentum and positive analyst re-rating toward the high end of consensus, validating premium multiple and driving price toward the analyst high.

Bear Case

Bear case assumes weaker-than-expected sales or negative guidance leading to re-pricing toward the analyst low; pipeline setbacks or loss of market share could deepen downside.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Next quarterly earnings (estimated)
Pipeline / commercial execution milestone

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-25Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$61.50

Range (USD)

$51.35 - $68.25

Count

Query: Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc Common (SUPN) analyst consensus price target high low average

Supernus Consensus Estimates (SUPN) - Investing.com NG
Search result #1
The highest analyst price target is USD65, and the lowest is USD55. What Is SUPN's Potential Upside or Downside, Based on the Analysts' Average Price Target?
Extracted: $65.00, $55.00Open source
Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN) Stock Price, News, Quote ...
Search result #2
Find the latest Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and ...
Open source
Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and ...
Search result #3
BofA Securities Initiates Supernus Pharmaceuticals at Buy With $65 Price Target · Supernus Pharmaceuticals Shares Rise After Piper Sandler Upgrade · Piper Sandler ...
Extracted: $65.00Open source
Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) Price Targets
Search result #4
The forecasts range from a low of $55.00 to a high of $65.00. The average price target represents an increase of 19.44% from the last closing price of $51.35.
Extracted: $55.00, $65.00, $51.35Open source
SUPN Stock Forecast 2026 - Supernus Price Targets & Predictions
Search result #5
Based on our analysis of 9 Wall Street analysts, SUPN has a bullish consensus with a median price target of $61.50 (ranging from $55.00 to $65.00). The overall ...
Extracted: $61.50, $55.00, $65.00Open source
SUPERNUS PHARMACEUTICALS INC (SUPN) Stock Analyst Ratings
Search result #6
12 analysts have analysed SUPN and the average price target is 62.56 USD. This implies a price increase of 23.05% is expected in the next year ...
Extracted: $62.56Open sourceFeb 13, 2026

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$68 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$62 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$51 / p=20% prob

Price $46 as of 2026-07-30

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 13%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +50% · Base +35% · Bear +13%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-26
Analyst target revisions / re-rating
Analyst note flow and consensus targets (range shown in public aggregates) often trigger re-rating episodes; assume window end if no single date disclosed [#SERP-1][#SERP-6].
Prob 30.00% • Move 10.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Next quarterly earnings (estimated)
2026-05-26
Quarterly results and guidance could move the stock; no confirmed date disclosed so conservatively set at +90 days (assumption). Market consensus and quote pages imply modest upside expectations [#SERP-2][#SERP-8].
Prob 40% • Move 6% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Pipeline / commercial execution milestone
2027-02-25
Longer-term commercial uptake or late-stage pipeline/commercial milestones could produce sustained re-rating; conservative 12‑month horizon used due to lack of a single disclosed milestone date.
Prob 30% • Move 20% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

Analyst downgrades or consensus target compression
Regulatory or reimbursement setbacks for marketed products
Weaker-than-expected quarterly revenue/guidance

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ACAD	CNS-focused specialty pharma with marketed neuropsychiatric products and similar commercialization dynamics.
ALKS	Alkermes: commercial-stage CNS therapeutics and recurring-revenue products, comparable market/specialty focus.
INDV	Indivior: specialty company focused on CNS/addiction therapeutics with analogous regulatory and commercial risk profile.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc Common (SUPN) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-25