SUNS

Rating neutralAI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Sunrise Realty Trust

As of 2026-05-17/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Financing capacity is a monitored deployment hook, not a confirmed origination catalyst • 2027-03-31

Expected move: +0%

Biggest risk

The bear case is that this remains a small, externally managed CRE lender with limited coverage, low cash on hand, reliance on secured and affiliate financing, and results that can be affected by episodic repayments, credit marks, and portfolio timing.

Invalidation

Break below $6 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The post-earnings bull case is that SUNS covered its dividend with distributable earnings, grew interest income year over year, reduced funded-loan CECL reserves, and retained lending capacity for future portfolio growth.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-17

Base target

p=52%

Bull target

$10

p=22%

Bear target

p=26%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q1 print supports dividend coverage but is not enough for a full rerating
Book-value discount requires sustained execution evidence
The post-earnings bull case is that SUNS covered its dividend with distributable earnings, grew interest income year over year, reduced funded-loan CECL reserves, and retained lending capacity for future portfolio growth.

BearKey bullets

Analyst coverage appears thin and post-earnings estimate or target revisions were not available in the packet, limiting outside confirmation.
Book value per share slipped modestly to about $13.50 from $13.56 sequentially, so the discount to book is not enough without sustained execution.
Borrowings under the affiliate line rose to $51.35 million from $19.75 million at year-end, increasing funding sensitivity if capital availability tightens.

WatchKey bullets

Financing capacity is a monitored deployment hook, not a confirmed origination catalyst

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $9 (p=52%)

Bull/Bear spread: +21% / -26%

Vs latest close: Bull +21% · Base +0% · Bear -26%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $10 (p=22%)Base Target: $9 (p=52%)Bear Target: $6 (p=26%)

Commentary

The May 14, 2026 8-K and 10-Q provide primary-source support for the earnings and balance-sheet update, but forward visibility remains limited. The evidence supports a lower-conviction monitoring view: Q1 was constructive, yet no company-confirmed forward catalyst, analyst revision signal, or direct-peer validation is available in the packet. Social context is unavailable and should not affect the thesis.

As of 2026-05-17 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q1 print supports dividend coverage but is not enough for a full rerating
Book-value discount requires sustained execution evidence

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$10 / p=22% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$9 / p=52% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$6 / p=26% prob

Price $8 as of 2026-05-27

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 0%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +21% · Base +0% · Bear -26%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2027-03-31
Financing capacity is a monitored deployment hook, not a confirmed origination catalyst
As of March 31, 2026, SUNS had $76.9 million available under its revolving credit facility and $23.6 million available under its affiliate SRTF credit facility, and management stated cash on hand, facility capacity, and operating cash flow should be sufficient to service debt over the next twelve months. This supports monitoring for loan deployment, but no specific forward origination event is confirmed by the primary sources. [#10-Q-2026-05-14]
Prob 45.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q1 print supports dividend coverage but is not enough for a full rerating
2026-05-14
Q1 2026 distributable earnings were $0.35 per share versus a $0.30 common dividend, while GAAP net income was $4.3 million. The 10-Q also showed the funded-loan CECL reserve falling to $0.3 million from $1.9 million at year-end, improving the near-term credit snapshot but still leaving the thesis dependent on repeat performance. [#8-K-2026-05-14] [#10-Q-2026-05-14]
Prob 65% • Move 5% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Book-value discount requires sustained execution evidence
2026-12-31
Book value per share was about $13.50 at March 31, 2026 versus the $7.93 anchor price, implying a steep discount, but this is a valuation setup rather than a primary-source-confirmed catalyst. Closing the gap likely requires several quarters of dividend coverage, disciplined leverage, and benign credit performance. [#10-Q-2026-05-14]
Prob 40% • Move 14% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Analyst coverage appears thin and post-earnings estimate or target revisions were not available in the packet, limiting outside confirmation.
Book value per share slipped modestly to about $13.50 from $13.56 sequentially, so the discount to book is not enough without sustained execution.
Borrowings under the affiliate line rose to $51.35 million from $19.75 million at year-end, increasing funding sensitivity if capital availability tightens.
Cash and cash equivalents were only about $5.7 million at March 31, 2026, leaving the model more dependent on credit-facility access and operating cash flow.
Portfolio growth is concentrated in transitional CRE lending, including a hotel-related subordinate B-note, which can amplify asset-specific credit risk.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
RPT	Packet-listed same-sector small-cap peer, but still a loose comparator rather than a direct operating peer; use only as a rough check on investor appetite for small real-estate-credit vehicles.
GHI	Packet-listed same-sector income-oriented real-estate finance comparator, but asset mix and structure are not a clean match, so peer evidence should not drive the thesis.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-17

AI Stock Memo: SUNS - Sunrise Realty Trust - RankAlpha