STAG

AI Memo

STAG Industrial

As of 2026-04-29/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q2 occupancy trough and next leasing checkpoint • 2026-07-28

Expected move: +7%

Biggest risk

The caution is that GAAP EPS fell year over year, occupancy still faces a near-term trough in Q2, and no broad post-print target-revision wave was available in the checked evidence as of April 29, 2026, limiting confirmation that analysts materially raised forward numbers.

Invalidation

Break below $36 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The post-earnings read-through is modestly constructive: operating metrics were strong, consensus beat data checked in trusted coverage was favorable, and management held its leasing and retention framework while pointing to a second-half occupancy recovery.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-04-29

Base target

$41

p=1%

Bull target

$44

p=0%

Bear target

$36

p=0%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q1 print beat with solid operating metrics
Pipeline conversion and data-center-adjacent demand could support 2H growth
The post-earnings read-through is modestly constructive: operating metrics were strong, consensus beat data checked in trusted coverage was favorable, and management held its leasing and retention framework while pointing to a second-half occupancy recovery.

BearKey bullets

Management said occupancy is expected to trough in Q2 2026 before recovering later in the year, creating a near-term execution risk.
Net income per share fell to $0.32 from $0.49 year over year, helped less by property-sale gains and facing higher interest expense pressure.
[#8-K-2026-04-28]

WatchKey bullets

Q2 occupancy trough and next leasing checkpoint

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $41 (p=1%)

Bull/Bear spread: +15% / -6%

Vs latest close: Bull +15% · Base +7% · Bear -6%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $44 (p=0%)Base Target: $41 (p=1%)Bear Target: $36 (p=0%)

Commentary

Near-term tone improved after the April 28, 2026 release because the company delivered a clean operating quarter and trusted follow-up coverage pointed to an EPS/revenue beat with about a 0.9% premarket move on April 29, 2026. Still, this remains a cautious post-earnings monitoring setup rather than a strong rerating call because checked evidence did not yet show a broad analyst target-reset cycle, and management's own framing still includes a Q2 occupancy trough before the hoped-for second-half recovery.

As of 2026-04-29 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q1 print beat with solid operating metrics
Pipeline conversion and data-center-adjacent demand could support 2H growth

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$44 / p=0% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$41 / p=1% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$36 / p=0% prob

Price $38 as of 2026-05-27

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 6%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +15% · Base +7% · Bear -6%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.20

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-07-28
Q2 occupancy trough and next leasing checkpoint
Management indicated occupancy should trough in Q2 before improving in the second half, so the next earnings cycle is the key proof point that strong spreads, retention and addressed leasing are offsetting near-term move-outs; failure to show that handoff would likely pressure the shares.
Prob 60.00% • Move 5.00% • Priced-in 45.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q1 print beat with solid operating metrics
2026-04-29
STAG's April 28, 2026 earnings release showed Core FFO per diluted share of $0.65, up 6.6% year over year, Same Store Cash NOI up 4.1%, occupancy at 95.1%, and 6.0 million square feet of leasing with 20.9% cash rent change; checked post-print coverage also indicated revenue and EPS came in above consensus with a modest positive premarket reaction. [#8-K-2026-04-28]
Prob 75% • Move 4% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Pipeline conversion and data-center-adjacent demand could support 2H growth
2026-12-31
The company reported a $3.9 billion acquisition pipeline as of April 27, 2026, plus eight data-center-related leases totaling 1.6 million square feet since the start of 2025; if that demand remains durable, STAG has room to sustain above-normal leasing spreads and back-half occupancy recovery. [#8-K-2026-04-28]
Prob 55% • Move 7% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

Management said occupancy is expected to trough in Q2 2026 before recovering later in the year, creating a near-term execution risk.
Net income per share fell to $0.32 from $0.49 year over year, helped less by property-sale gains and facing higher interest expense pressure. [#8-K-2026-04-28]
The company used its ATM program on a forward basis in Q1 at an average price of $38.30, which supports liquidity but can weigh on per-share upside if used more heavily. [#8-K-2026-04-28]
With the stock already near the packet median target, any miss on leasing, retention or occupancy recovery could compress the limited valuation cushion.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
FR	First Industrial Realty Trust is a closer industrial REIT peer on portfolio mix and leasing exposure; STAG's current setup looks comparable on leasing-driven cash flow resilience but remains more of a monitoring story until occupancy recovery is confirmed.
PLD	Prologis is the best-in-class industrial REIT benchmark; STAG's valuation leaves less upside than PLD-quality operators typically command, so STAG likely needs continued leasing execution and pipeline conversion to narrow the quality gap.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-04-29

AI Stock Memo: STAG - STAG Industrial - RankAlpha