SPIR

Rating neutralAI MemoPost-earnings T+1

Spire Global

As of 2026-11-11/Post-earnings T+1/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-11-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Fourth-quarter guidance and cash-use test • 2026-12-31

Base target: $9 / p=45% prob

Biggest risk

Q3 revenue missed the $20.58 million consensus reported by StreetInsider, while Spire lowered the 2026 revenue ceiling and worsened its adjusted-EBITDA outlook relative to Q2. The GAAP net loss remained $20.3 million. No verified post-print analyst rating, target, or estimate revisions were available at this early T+1 point. Consensus comparison; SEC earnings exhibit

Invalidation

Break below $7 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Core revenue grew 77% year over year excluding maritime, Q3 operating cash use fell to $5.0 million from $23.4 million in Q2, and Spire introduced preliminary 2027 revenue guidance of $96 million–$106 million. Award conversion could support growth if margins and cash use continue to improve. SEC earnings exhibit

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-11-11

Base target

p=45%

Bull target

$13

p=25%

Bear target

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Post-earnings reassessment
NOAA award conversion
Core revenue grew 77% year over year excluding maritime, Q3 operating cash use fell to $5.0 million from $23.4 million in Q2, and Spire introduced preliminary 2027 revenue guidance of $96 million–$106 million.

BearKey bullets

Full-year adjusted-EBITDA guidance worsened; a substantial Q4 improvement is still required.
Low coverage and the absence of verified post-print analyst revisions limit confidence.
NOAA options are unfunded, while satellite readiness, delivery timing and contract execution can delay revenue.

WatchKey bullets

Fourth-quarter guidance and cash-use test

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+1

Base case: $9 (p=45%)

Target spread vs base: +44% / -28%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $13 (p=25%)Base Target: $9 (p=45%)Bear Target: $7 (p=30%)

Commentary

The earnings print changes the prior tentative-buy view to cautious monitoring: stronger core growth and lower cash use were offset by a revenue miss and weaker 2026 guidance. Investing.com reported an approximately 15% after-hours decline to $7.92, but that is an initial reaction, not a confirmed November 11 closing price. No verified post-print analyst revision was found. Social, options, short-interest and employee metrics are unavailable; zero fields are placeholders, not neutral observations. Initial reaction

As of 2026-11-11 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Post-earnings reassessment
NOAA award conversion

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$13 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$9 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$7 / p=30% prob

Analysis 2026-11-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-12-31
Fourth-quarter guidance and cash-use test
Spire now guides to 2026 revenue of $75 million–$80 million, down from the prior $75 million–$85 million range, and adjusted EBITDA of negative $32.4 million to negative $27.4 million versus the prior negative $26.0 million to negative $20.7 million range. Management expects Q4 cash use to improve; delivery against these targets matters more than Q3's year-over-year growth alone [#8-K-2026-11-10]. Q3 SEC earnings exhibit; Q2 company release
Prob 50.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 45.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Post-earnings reassessment
2026-11-20
Q3 revenue of $18.0 million and adjusted EBITDA of negative $8.6 million came alongside improved gross margin and operating cash use. But revenue missed the $20.58 million consensus reported by StreetInsider, and Spire cut the high end of 2026 revenue guidance. The durability of the initial negative market reaction is the near-term test [#8-K-2026-11-10]. SEC earnings exhibit; consensus comparison
Prob 70% • Move -10% • Priced-in 55%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

NOAA award conversion
2027-12-31
The $33.2 million NOAA weather-data task order begins December 1, 2026, and Spire reported $175.4 million of remaining performance obligations at September 30. The forward test is turning awards into revenue and cash flow. Unfunded surge-buy options are not committed revenue [#8-K-2026-11-10]. SEC earnings exhibit
Prob 60% • Move 15% • Priced-in 50%

Risks

Full-year adjusted-EBITDA guidance worsened; a substantial Q4 improvement is still required.
Low coverage and the absence of verified post-print analyst revisions limit confidence.
NOAA options are unfunded, while satellite readiness, delivery timing and contract execution can delay revenue.
Operating cash flow remains negative, and quarter-to-quarter working-capital benefits may not persist.
The Q3 revenue miss and reduced 2026 guidance weaken the prior positive thesis despite stronger core growth.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
PL	Satellite-data comparator, but Planet's imagery products differ from Spire's weather and radio-frequency data. Planet IR
BKSY	Adjacent satellite-intelligence comparator with a different imagery and analytics mix; not a close valuation match. BlackSky IR

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-11-11