B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SPIR
Spire GlobalBNYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Two distinct NOAA awards add contracted work to a business showing ex-maritime core revenue growth. If delivery supports the reaffirmed outlook and reduces cash burn, the $11.15 anchor price could re-rate [#PR-2026-09-22] [#PR-2026-08-26] [#SEC-8K-2026-08-12].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.4.
What can break
Q2 GAAP gross margin fell to 34%; the company attributed much of the decline to the WildFireSat contract cancellation [#SEC-8K-2026-08-12].
Momentum
4
Value
36
Sentiment
97
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $12.50 · Bull $18.00 · Bear $6.50Analysis 2026-09-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $20.90
Why
Momentum4 · Δ7d +1.0
Value36 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment97 · Δ7d -4.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Q2 GAAP gross margin fell to 34%; the company attributed much of the decline to the WildFireSat contract cancellation [#SEC-8K-2026-08-12].
- • Q2 operating cash use was $23.4 million versus $91.7 million of cash, equivalents, and marketable securities at June 30, 2026 [#SEC-8K-2026-08-12].
- • Contract value is spread across future periods, the $33.2 million task order's additional options are unfunded, and Q2 still produced losses and substantial cash use.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-01
NOAA weather-data task order begins
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
4
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.0
Δ21d
-13.9
Value
36
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
97
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.4
Δ21d
+12.6
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 3.9 / Value 36.2 / Sentiment 97.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-30. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$12.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$388.35M
Beta
2.46
Shares Out
39.12M
P/E (TTM)
18.2
P/S (TTM)
3.67
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-3.42
Rev YoY
-5.9%
EPS YoY
-114.0%
Gross Margin
+37.7%
Op Margin
-108.1%
Net Debt
-$68.39M
Current Ratio
1.87
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data