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SPIR

Spire GlobalA
NYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Core revenue accelerated sequentially, RFGL customer additions continued, satellite capacity expanded, and management reaffirmed an outlook whose midpoint implies roughly 50% core growth. A NOAA award plus continued cash-burn improvement could materially improve revenue visibility [#SEC-8K-2026-08-12] [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-19].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.7.
What can break
Adjusted EBITDA remained negative at $8.6 million and operating cash outflow was $23.4 million despite sequential improvement [#SEC-8K-2026-08-12].
Momentum
12
Value
36
Sentiment
95
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $14.50 · Bull $20.90 · Bear $7.50Analysis 2026-09-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $20.88
Why
Momentum12 · Δ7d -3.4
Value36 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment95 · Δ7d -3.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Adjusted EBITDA remained negative at $8.6 million and operating cash outflow was $23.4 million despite sequential improvement [#SEC-8K-2026-08-12].
  • • Q2 GAAP gross margin declined 16 percentage points year over year to 34%, primarily because of the WildFireSat contract cancellation [#SEC-8K-2026-08-12].
  • • Q2 GAAP gross margin fell to 34%, adjusted EBITDA remained negative at $8.6 million, and operating cash outflow was $23.4 million.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Second-half execution against reaffirmed 2026 outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
12
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-3.4
Δ21d
-8.5
Value
36
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
95
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.7
Δ21d
+15.3
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 11.7 / Value 36.3 / Sentiment 95.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-11. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$20.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$14.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$558.04M
Beta
2.46
Shares Out
39.11M
P/E (TTM)
18.2
P/S (TTM)
3.67
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-4.92
Rev YoY
-5.9%
EPS YoY
-114.0%
Gross Margin
+37.7%
Op Margin
-108.1%
Net Debt
-$68.39M
Current Ratio
1.87
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data