SOHU

AI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Sohu.com

As of 2026-05-19/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-19 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 2026 print confirmed modest revenue growth but soft Q2 outlook • 2026-05-19

Expected move: +13%

Biggest risk

The bear case is that Q2 guidance implies online game revenue may sequentially decline, net loss may widen to US$15 million-US$25 million, mobile game engagement is already fading in older titles, and marketing services remains weak. That makes sustained re-rating dependent on continued game traction rather than a single print. [#IR-20260518]

Invalidation

Break below $10 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The bull case is that Q1 showed revenue growth, operating profit remained solid, cash and short-term investments totaled about US$1.2 billion, and the buyback remains active. If TLBB: Return keeps supporting PC game engagement, Sohu can defend per-share value even with modest top-line growth. [#IR-20260518]

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-19

Base target

$15

p=50%

Bull target

$19

p=25%

Bear target

$10

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

TLBB: Return is still the main operating lever for game engagement
Ongoing buyback provides per-share support
The bull case is that Q1 showed revenue growth, operating profit remained solid, cash and short-term investments totaled about US$1.2 billion, and the buyback remains active.

BearKey bullets

Changyou said declines in mobile games were mainly due to natural decline of older titles, which underscores content-rotation risk.
Q2 guidance points to lower online-game revenue sequentially and a GAAP/non-GAAP net loss of US$15 million to US$25 million.
Sohu explicitly said the Business Outlook reflects management's current and preliminary view and is subject to substantial uncertainty.

WatchKey bullets

Q1 2026 print confirmed modest revenue growth but soft Q2 outlook

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $15 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +41% / -25%

Vs latest close: Bull +41% · Base +13% · Bear -25%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $19 (p=25%)Base Target: $15 (p=50%)Bear Target: $10 (p=25%)

Commentary

Post-earnings reaction looks muted rather than euphoric: trusted coverage said the stock showed no significant after-hours movement, and the low-coverage setup still lacks a clear analyst revision wave. The current quote is only modestly above the May 18 anchor price, so this remains a cautious monitoring view rather than a conviction re-rating story.

As of 2026-05-19 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

TLBB: Return is still the main operating lever for game engagement
Ongoing buyback provides per-share support

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$19 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$15 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$10 / p=25% prob

Price $14 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 13%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +41% · Base +13% · Bear -25%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.18

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-19
Q1 2026 print confirmed modest revenue growth but soft Q2 outlook
Sohu reported Q1 2026 total revenue of US$125 million, up 6% year over year, with GAAP operating profit of US$65 million, but GAAP net loss attributable to Sohu.com Limited of US$4 million and Q2 2026 guidance for online game revenue of US$104 million to US$114 million and net loss of US$15 million to US$25 million. The setup supports incremental follow-through if investors focus on cash generation and buybacks, but the guide also signals near-term moderation. [#IR-20260518]
Prob 85.00% • Move 4.00% • Priced-in 55.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

TLBB: Return is still the main operating lever for game engagement
2026-08-18
Changyou said PC game MAU rose 17% year over year and APA rose 7% year over year, with the increases mainly tied to Tian Long Ba Bu: Return launched in Q3 2025. That supports a longer-duration thesis that content refreshes can stabilize gaming revenue even as older mobile titles decline. [#IR-20260518]
Prob 60% • Move 3% • Priced-in 35%
Ongoing buyback provides per-share support
2026-08-18
Management said Sohu had repurchased 8.7 million ADSs for an aggregate cost of about US$116 million under the previously announced US$150 million repurchase program as of May 13, 2026. That does not change the core operating picture, but it remains a steady long-duration support for per-share value if cash deployment continues. [#IR-20260518]
Prob 70% • Move 2% • Priced-in 45%

Risks

Changyou said declines in mobile games were mainly due to natural decline of older titles, which underscores content-rotation risk.
Q2 guidance points to lower online-game revenue sequentially and a GAAP/non-GAAP net loss of US$15 million to US$25 million.
Sohu explicitly said the Business Outlook reflects management's current and preliminary view and is subject to substantial uncertainty.
The release reiterates exposure to exchange-rate fluctuations, China macro instability, and reliance on marketing services and online games.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
PERI	Loose same-sector media/ad-tech comparator; useful mainly for sentiment and monetization comparisons, not a direct operating peer.
TTGT	Loose same-sector digital media comparator with more B2B exposure; helpful for relative valuation context, but business overlap is limited.
BMBL	Loose consumer internet comparator; relevant for market-cap and sentiment context, though the business model is materially different.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-19

AI Stock Memo: SOHU - Sohu.com - RankAlpha