AI Stock Memo: NCMI - National CineMedia - RankAlpha

NCMI

Rating neutralAI MemoPost-earnings T+3

National CineMedia

As of 2026-05-15/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q2 outlook points to a seasonal step-up after an in-line Q1 • 2026-08-01

Expected move: +7%

Biggest risk

The weaker read is that attendance rose 15.1% but total revenue still fell 2.6%, with total revenue per attendee down 15.3%, operating loss widening to $26.9M and Adjusted OIBDA slipping to negative $10.5M; that leaves the story highly sensitive to ad pricing, mix and execution.

Invalidation

Break below $2 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The best post-earnings read is that Q1 landed inside management's range despite seasonal weakness and Olympic competition, while Q2 guidance implies a normal seasonal rebound and the transformation program offers visible cost leverage.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-15

Base target

p=50%

Bull target

p=25%

Bear target

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Post-earnings reset remains active after a sharp two-day drop
Operational transformation could widen earnings leverage if savings stick
The best post-earnings read is that Q1 landed inside management's range despite seasonal weakness and Olympic competition, while Q2 guidance implies a normal seasonal rebound and the transformation program offers visible cost leverage.

BearKey bullets

Cinema ad demand remains exposed to film slate variability, macro ad budgets and competition for premium video spend.
Low analyst coverage and the stock's sharp post-earnings move increase volatility and make price discovery noisier.
Operating loss widened to $26.9M and Adjusted OIBDA remained negative at $10.5M, so the margin bridge still depends on stronger seasonal demand and savings execution.

WatchKey bullets

Q2 outlook points to a seasonal step-up after an in-line Q1

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $3 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +49% / -32%

Vs latest close: Bull +49% · Base +7% · Bear -32%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $5 (p=25%)Base Target: $3 (p=50%)Bear Target: $2 (p=25%)

Commentary

As of May 15, 2026, the post-earnings tone looks cautious rather than broken. The company source confirmed an in-range Q1 and constructive Q2 guide, but the market reaction was negative, with the stock down about 13.0% from the May 12 close to the May 14 close. Delayed analyst reaction appears limited and mildly negative, with target cuts showing up in aggregated coverage; given thin coverage, that should be treated as a monitoring signal rather than a strong consensus shift. Overall sentiment is restrained by weak per-attendee monetization and the need for Q2 follow-through.

As of 2026-05-15 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Post-earnings reset remains active after a sharp two-day drop
Operational transformation could widen earnings leverage if savings stick

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$5 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$3 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$2 / p=25% prob

Price $3 as of 2026-05-28

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 7%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +49% · Base +7% · Bear -32%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

-0.12

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-08-01
Q2 outlook points to a seasonal step-up after an in-line Q1
Management said Q1 revenue of $34.0M and profitability were within expectations, and guided Q2 revenue to $57.0M-$63.0M with Adjusted OIBDA of $1.0M-$5.0M, making the next quarter the clearest near-term check on whether advertiser demand and the 2026 film slate convert into improved profitability [#8-K-2026-05-12].
Prob 65.00% • Move 18.00% • Priced-in 55.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Post-earnings reset remains active after a sharp two-day drop
2026-05-29
Shares fell from $3.38 on May 12, 2026 to $2.98 on May 13 and $2.94 on May 14, while aggregated post-print coverage indicated target cuts including Benchmark to $6 from $7 and Wedbush to $6 from $6.50; stabilization would help, but the tape still reflects skepticism toward the Q1 mix and margin profile.
Prob 70% • Move -9% • Priced-in 75%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Operational transformation could widen earnings leverage if savings stick
2026-12-31
The company said its operational transformation is targeting about $11.0M of annualized cost savings, with about $3.0M realized to date and up to $6.0M expected in 2026; if execution holds, that is meaningful against NCMI's small-cap earnings base and could offset some per-attendee revenue pressure [#8-K-2026-05-12].
Prob 60% • Move 22% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

Cinema ad demand remains exposed to film slate variability, macro ad budgets and competition for premium video spend.
Low analyst coverage and the stock's sharp post-earnings move increase volatility and make price discovery noisier.
Operating loss widened to $26.9M and Adjusted OIBDA remained negative at $10.5M, so the margin bridge still depends on stronger seasonal demand and savings execution.
Per-attendee monetization weakened materially in Q1 even as attendance improved, with total revenue per attendee down 15.3%.
Transformation benefits are partly back-end loaded; management expects only up to $6.0M of 2026 savings versus an $11.0M annualized run-rate target.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
AMC	AMC shares NCMI's core theater attendance and release-slate exposure, but it is an exhibitor rather than a cinema advertising platform; useful as an end-market read, not a pure peer.
CNK	Cinemark is another exhibitor tied to box office traffic and screen economics; it offers a cleaner theatrical-demand comp than the packet's loose same-cap media names, though it is still not a direct advertising peer.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-15