AI Stock Memo: SNOW - Snowflake - RankAlpha

SNOW

AI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Snowflake

As of 2026-05-28/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence high

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

high

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 FY2027 beat-and-raise with stronger AI/data momentum • 2026-06-10

Expected move: +8%

Biggest risk

The bear case is mostly about durability and valuation after a sharp rerate. If AI workloads do not keep expanding, if the AWS deal does not translate into lasting margin or share gains, or if growth settles back toward the low-30% range without further upside, the stock can stall or give back part of the post-earnings move.

Invalidation

Break below $215 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The print confirmed durable acceleration: product revenue grew 34%, total revenue grew 33%, NRR stayed at 126%, and management raised FY2027 product revenue to $5.84B and non-GAAP operating margin to 13.5%. Trusted market coverage also said Snowflake beat EPS and revenue consensus and that analysts quickly lifted targets, reinforcing the idea that AI-driven consumption is translating into real operating leverage.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

high

As of

2026-05-28

Base target

$275

p=50%

Bull target

$330

p=30%

Bear target

$215

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

AWS agreement deepens the AI infrastructure tailwind
Customer and AI adoption remains broad-based
The print confirmed durable acceleration: product revenue grew 34%, total revenue grew 33%, NRR stayed at 126%, and management raised FY2027 product revenue to $5.84B and non-GAAP operating margin to 13.5%.

BearKey bullets

No full consensus EPS/revenue revision table was provided in the packet, so conviction is stronger on the company release and price reaction than on a complete analyst-estimate reset.
Peer comparisons remain imperfect because the closest strategic competitor, Databricks, is private, while the public alternatives are either narrower data-infrastructure vendors or much larger hyperscalers.
Q2 product revenue guidance still implies roughly 30% growth, so the market needs continued AI/workload acceleration rather than just one strong quarter.

WatchKey bullets

Q1 FY2027 beat-and-raise with stronger AI/data momentum

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

high

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $275 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +29% / -16%

Vs latest close: Bull +29% · Base +8% · Bear -16%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $330 (p=30%)Base Target: $275 (p=50%)Bear Target: $215 (p=20%)

Commentary

Primary-source evidence is strong and the post-print reaction is real: SNOW traded around $239.20 on May 28, 2026, roughly 36% above the $175.26 anchor, after the company raised FY2027 guidance and disclosed a $6B AWS agreement. Reuters also reported that at least 25 analysts raised price targets, lifting the median target to about $275. Social context was not provided in the packet, so this remains a news-and-filings-driven report; the stance is constructive but partly priced in, with peer read-throughs best framed against data-platform and consumption-software names rather than the packet's broad same-sector market-cap set.

As of 2026-05-28 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

AWS agreement deepens the AI infrastructure tailwind
Customer and AI adoption remains broad-based

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$330 / p=30% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$275 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$215 / p=20% prob

Price $256 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 8%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +29% · Base +8% · Bear -16%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-10
Q1 FY2027 beat-and-raise with stronger AI/data momentum
Snowflake's May 27, 2026 8-K and press release confirmed Q1 FY2027 product revenue of $1.33B (+34% YoY), total revenue of $1.39B (+33% YoY), NRR of 126%, RPO of $9.21B, and a raise to FY2027 product revenue guidance of $5.84B and non-GAAP operating margin of 13.5% [#8-K-2026-05-27].
Prob 95.00% • Move 9.00% • Priced-in 80.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

AWS agreement deepens the AI infrastructure tailwind
2026-08-31
Snowflake's new $6B, five-year AWS agreement should support compute supply, deepen the platform's strategic AWS relationship, and help Snowflake convert AI workload growth into more durable consumption [#8-K-2026-05-27].
Prob 75% • Move 8% • Priced-in 55%
Customer and AI adoption remains broad-based
2026-11-30
The company said more than 13,600 accounts are using Snowflake AI capabilities, Cortex Code is in use across more than 7,100 accounts, and 779 customers now generate over $1M of trailing-12-month product revenue, suggesting the AI Data Cloud story is still expanding into deeper consumption [#8-K-2026-05-27].
Prob 70% • Move 6% • Priced-in 45%

Risks

No full consensus EPS/revenue revision table was provided in the packet, so conviction is stronger on the company release and price reaction than on a complete analyst-estimate reset.
Peer comparisons remain imperfect because the closest strategic competitor, Databricks, is private, while the public alternatives are either narrower data-infrastructure vendors or much larger hyperscalers.
Q2 product revenue guidance still implies roughly 30% growth, so the market needs continued AI/workload acceleration rather than just one strong quarter.
The AWS and AI expansion story must convert into durable margin and consumption leverage; if compute economics or adoption soften, the thesis weakens.
The stock already had a very large post-earnings rerating, so any disappointment in the next read-through can trigger a giveback.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
MDB	MongoDB is a closer public data-platform comparator than the packet's broad same-sector list because both companies sell developer and enterprise data infrastructure, though MongoDB is more operational-database oriented while Snowflake is centered on cloud data warehousing, analytics, and AI workloads.
ESTC	Elastic is an adjacent public comparator for enterprise search, observability, security analytics, and data-query workloads; it is useful for tracking data-platform software demand, but Snowflake has a larger consumption-based warehouse and AI Data Cloud profile.
DDOG	Datadog is an adjacent usage-based cloud software peer with large-scale data ingestion and analytics exposure; it is not a direct warehouse competitor, but it is a useful public benchmark for consumption growth, retention, and software multiple sensitivity.
AMZN	AWS is a direct platform counterparty and competitive reference because Snowflake's own filing highlights large public cloud providers as competitors, but Amazon is too diversified to serve as a clean valuation comp for Snowflake's pure-play data-cloud model.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-28