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SNFCA

Rating neutralAI Memo

Security National Financial

As of 2026-03-17/Confidence medium/Horizon 3m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-03-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

Key catalyst

2025 earnings call (management commentary on FY results & capital allocation) • 2026-03-17

Base target: $10 / p=55% prob

Biggest risk

Worsening reserve trends, disappointing underwriting/income disclosure in the 10-K, or a conservative capital-allocation stance at the call would pressure the stock toward the bear target as investor yield/return expectations reset.

Invalidation

Break below $6 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

If management uses the earnings call and 10-K to signal disciplined capital returns (repurchase authorization or rising dividend) alongside improving underwriting/reserve metrics, multiple expansion toward small-cap financial peers could drive material upside to the bull target.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-03-17

Base target

$10

p=55%

Bull target

$13

p=20%

Bear target

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

FY-2025 10-K filed — annual disclosures on reserves and capital allocation
If management uses the earnings call and 10-K to signal disciplined capital returns (repurchase authorization or rising dividend) alongside improving underwriting/reserve metrics, multiple expansion toward small-cap financial peers could drive material upside to the bull target.
ANCHOR: {"price": 9.25, "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T13:09:33+00:00", "source": "broker_last"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Our base target (9.75) sits modestly above the analyst median (8.88) reflecting a neutral-to-slightly constructive view that near-term guidance or capital-return signals at the March 17 call could lift sentiment; analyst median = $8.88, low = $8.33, high = $22.83 (count=4).

BearKey bullets

Broader small-cap financial sector derating / funding-cost shock
No capital-return action or conservative dividend stance
Weak 2025 earnings or adverse reserve disclosures in 10-K

WatchKey bullets

2025 earnings call (management commentary on FY results & capital allocation)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $10 (p=55%)

Target spread vs base: +33% / -38%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $13 (p=20%)Base Target: $10 (p=55%)Bear Target: $6 (p=25%)

Commentary

Market tone is cautiously neutral ahead of the company's March 17 earnings call and after a 10-K filing on March 16; investors are focused on capital-allocation language and reserve trends [#IR-undated] [#10-K-2026-03-16]. Coverage is light but recent press activity centers on the call and annual report release, implying near-term volatility around management commentary [#8-K-2025-07-01].

As of 2026-03-17 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

FY-2025 10-K filed — annual disclosures on reserves and capital allocation

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-03-17Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$8.88

Range (USD)

$8.33 - $22.83

Count

Query: Security National Financial Corporation Class A Common (SNFCA) analyst consensus price target high low average

SNFCA | Security National Financial Corp. Cl A Analyst Estimates ...
Search result #8
Cl A analyst ratings, historical stock prices, earnings estimates & actuals. SNFCA updated stock price target ... Low. Average. Current Price, $8.54. Related ...
Extracted: $8.54Open source
snfca - Security National Financial Stock Forecast - StockInvest.us
Search result #1
Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Security National Financial Corporation stock with a 90% probability to be traded between $8.33 and $9.22 at ...
Extracted: $8.33, $9.22Open source
SNFCA Stock Quote Price and Forecast - CNN
Search result #3
The price of SNFCA shares has decreased $0.13 since the market last closed. This is a 1.50% drop.
Open source
Security National Financial Corp Class A (SNFCA) - Morningstar
Search result #5
See the latest Security National Financial Corp Class A stock price (SNFCA:XNAS), related news, valuation, dividends and more to help you make your ...
Open source
SNFCA | Security National Financial Corp. Cl A Analyst Estimates
Search result #6
Security National Financial Corp. Cl A analyst estimates, including SNFCA earnings per share estimates and analyst recommendations.
Open source
SNFCA Stock Forecast 2026 - Security National Price Targets ...
Search result #7
Latest SNFCA Stock Price Targets & Analyst Predictions. SNFCA has shown a year-to-date change of 3.9% and a 1-year change of -20.2%, reflecting downward ...
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$13 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$10 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$6 / p=25% prob

Analysis 2026-03-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-03-17
2025 earnings call (management commentary on FY results & capital allocation)
Company-hosted earnings call to review 2025 results and management outlook; press release/IR notice announced call for March 17, 2026 and is the primary upcoming datapoint for guidance, capital-return commentary, and reserve/capital adequacy discussion [#IR-undated] [#10-K-2026-03-16].
Prob 90.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 40.00%
EVENT2026-06-30
Annual Meeting stockholder outcomes and corporate governance review
Company held its Annual Meeting on June 27, 2025; proxy/meeting outcomes can influence board-level capital-allocation decisions if follow-ups are disclosed this year—monitor any 8‑K follow-ups or board resolutions [#8-K-2025-07-01].
Prob 35.00% • Move 4.00% • Priced-in 10.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

FY-2025 10-K filed — annual disclosures on reserves and capital allocation
2026-03-16
10-K for fiscal year ended 2025 was filed 2026-03-16; investors should monitor the filing and related MD&A for disclosed reserve trends, capital-return framework, and any concrete share-repurchase/dividend authorization [#10-K-2026-03-16].
Prob 100% • Move 3% • Priced-in 30%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

No long-term catalysts

Risks

Broader small-cap financial sector derating / funding-cost shock
No capital-return action or conservative dividend stance
Weak 2025 earnings or adverse reserve disclosures in 10-K

Peers

Symbol	Summary
MFIN	Small-cap specialty finance peer with similar market-cap scale and focus on niche credit products; useful credit-cycle and reserve-comparison benchmark.
OPRT	Consumer lender with comparable market-cap and sensitivity to credit/underwriting trends; helpful for NIM and credit-loss trend checks.
AOMR	Mortgage REIT peer of similar market-cap where capital-return and dividend policy dynamics offer a governance/return comparison.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Security National Financial Corporation Class A Common (SNFCA) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-03-17

AI Stock Memo: SNFCA - Security National Financial - RankAlpha