Base case: $2 (p=51%)
Target spread vs base: +35% / -52%
Scenario probabilities
Bull Target: $2 (p=22%)Base Target: $2 (p=51%)Bear Target: $1 (p=27%)
Commentary
Primary-source tone is cautiously constructive, but the setup remains a low-conviction monitoring story. Deterministic scores remain only modestly positive with high uncertainty, catalyst density is sparse, and company-source flow since the March 12-13, 2026 earnings/10-K window has been thin. The peer set is also a material weakness: direct operating comps are private, while available public names are loose sector screens. At the May 6, 2026 anchor price of $1.47, the market appears to be discounting dilution and execution risk more than a near-term re-rating.
