SNAL

Rating neutralAI Memo

Snail

As of 2026-05-27/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 revenue and profit inflection with Q2 launch bridge [#8-K-2026-05-13] • 2026-06-30

Expected move: +31%

Biggest risk

This is still a small, execution-sensitive gaming/media name. Profitability is recent, ARK remains the core driver, and the May 20 ATM amendment keeps dilution risk alive if the company chooses to fund growth through share issuance. Any launch slip or weaker monetization would likely compress the rerating quickly.

Invalidation

Break below $0 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The May 13 release showed a real operating inflection: Q1 net revenues rose 35.7% year over year, the company returned to net income, and management pointed to additional ARK content releases plus roughly $11 million of deferred revenue recognition tied to Genesis Part 1. If the 2026 pipeline lands on time, the market can justify a higher multiple than the current sub-$1 anchor.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-27

Base target

p=45%

Bull target

p=30%

Bear target

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

May 20 ATM expansion keeps dilution risk on the table [#8-K-2026-05-21]
ARK pipeline can extend the rerating if launches land [#8-K-2026-05-13]
The May 13 release showed a real operating inflection: Q1 net revenues rose 35.7% year over year, the company returned to net income, and management pointed to additional ARK content releases plus roughly $11 million of deferred revenue recognition tied to Genesis Part 1.

BearKey bullets

ATM expansion increases potential dilution and can cap upside if shares are issued into weakness.
Low market cap and sparse analyst coverage make price discovery noisy and consensus signals unreliable.
New IP diversification is still unproven; timing slips on Genesis Part 1 or other releases would weaken the rerating case.

WatchKey bullets

Q1 revenue and profit inflection with Q2 launch bridge [#8-K-2026-05-13]

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $1 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +118% / -48%

Vs latest close: Bull +118% · Base +31% · Bear -48%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $2 (p=30%)Base Target: $1 (p=45%)Bear Target: $0 (p=25%)

Commentary

Primary-source evidence is constructive because the May 13 earnings release showed strong Q1 growth and a return to net income, but the May 20 ATM amendment reintroduces a dilution overhang. Coverage remains thin, and the packet does not provide a verified post-print analyst revision cluster or post-release price reaction, so this is still a cautious monitoring case rather than a clean breakout thesis.

As of 2026-05-27 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

May 20 ATM expansion keeps dilution risk on the table [#8-K-2026-05-21]
ARK pipeline can extend the rerating if launches land [#8-K-2026-05-13]

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$2 / p=30% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$1 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$0 / p=25% prob

Price $1 as of 2026-05-27

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 31%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +118% · Base +31% · Bear -48%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-30
Q1 revenue and profit inflection with Q2 launch bridge [#8-K-2026-05-13]
Snail reported Q1 2026 net revenues of $27.3 million, up 35.7% year over year, and net income of $2.1 million versus a $1.9 million loss a year ago. Management said Q2 should benefit from May/June ARK releases and that about $11 million of deferred revenue backlog is expected to be recognized on Genesis Part 1. [#8-K-2026-05-13]
Prob 70.00% • Move 18.00% • Priced-in 55.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

May 20 ATM expansion keeps dilution risk on the table [#8-K-2026-05-21]
2026-05-20
The company filed an amendment to increase ATM capacity and explicitly noted it has no obligation to issue shares; the facility improves flexibility but adds a potential supply overhang if utilized. [#8-K-2026-05-21]
Prob 85% • Move 10% • Priced-in 80%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

ARK pipeline can extend the rerating if launches land [#8-K-2026-05-13]
2026-12-31
Management highlighted a dense 2026-27 release slate, including Fantastic Tames, Tides of Fortune, Genesis Part 1, Dragontopia, Bellwright console plans, and new titles such as Dead Party and Gobby Gang, with the goal of diversifying revenue beyond ARK over time. [#8-K-2026-05-13]
Prob 45% • Move 28% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

ATM expansion increases potential dilution and can cap upside if shares are issued into weakness.
Low market cap and sparse analyst coverage make price discovery noisy and consensus signals unreliable.
New IP diversification is still unproven; timing slips on Genesis Part 1 or other releases would weaken the rerating case.
Recent profitability still depends on ARK-related launches, deferred revenue recognition, and execution on a crowded 2026 pipeline.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
CNVS	Loose same-sector micro-cap comparator; useful for small-cap media/gaming sentiment and liquidity context rather than direct operating overlap.
GAME	Another size-matched comparator in media and gaming; more of a valuation and trading reference than a true same-product peer.
ABLV	Same-sector micro-cap peer for trading context only; operating drivers are not tightly matched.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-05-27

AI Stock Memo: SNAL - Snail - RankAlpha