AI Stock Memo: SIGI - Selective Insurance Group - RankAlpha

SIGI

AI Memo

Selective Insurance Group

As of 2026-01-30/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Reserve review / actuarial commentary • 2026-05-01

Expected move: -14%

Biggest risk

Material adverse reserve development, elevated catastrophe losses, or reinsurance-cost spikes compress margins and push valuation toward the analyst low.

Invalidation

Break below $72 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Rate adequacy persists, reserve development is neutral or favorable, and catastrophe activity remains subdued — underwriting margins expand and shares re-rate toward the analyst high.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-30

Base target

$82

p=60%

Bull target

$95

p=20%

Bear target

$72

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q4 2025 / FY2025 earnings (est.)
Underwriting margin recovery
Rate adequacy persists, reserve development is neutral or favorable, and catastrophe activity remains subdued — underwriting margins expand and shares re-rate toward the analyst high.

BearKey bullets

Large catastrophe losses or higher reinsurance costs
Rate erosion from competitive pressure
Regulatory or capital constraints limiting underwriting flexibility

WatchKey bullets

Reserve review / actuarial commentary

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $82 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: -1% / -25%

Vs latest close: Bull -1% · Base -14% · Bear -25%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $95 (p=20%)Base Target: $82 (p=60%)Bear Target: $72 (p=20%)

Commentary

Analyst median (~82.29) sits near the current price, implying neutral consensus and limited immediate upside; catalysts split tone—near-term earnings/reserve updates increase volatility while multi-quarter rate progress would support upside. Peer pricing and reinsurance dynamics are key directional drivers.

As of 2026-01-30 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Rate adequacy persists, reserve development is neutral or favorable, and catastrophe activity remains subdued — underwriting margins expand and shares re-rate toward the analyst high.

Bear Case

Material adverse reserve development, elevated catastrophe losses, or reinsurance-cost spikes compress margins and push valuation toward the analyst low.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q4 2025 / FY2025 earnings (est.)
Underwriting margin recovery

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-30Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$82.29

Range (USD)

$72.00 - $95.00

Count

Query: Selective Insurance Group Inc Common (SIGI) analyst consensus price target high low average

Selective (SIGI) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #1
According to projections from 7 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Selective is 83.71, with a high estimate of 95 and a low estimate of 72.
Open source
Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (SIGI) Stock Price, News, Quote ...
Search result #2
Selective Insurance Group Inc has an Investment Rating of HOLD; a target price of $78.000000; an Industry Subrating of High; a Management Subrating of Medium; a ...
Extracted: $78.00Open source
SIGI Stock Forecast: Analyst Ratings, Predictions & Price Target 2026
Search result #3
Wall Street analysts have set a price target of $83, reflecting a 0.00% increase from the current stock price. What is the 2026 price prediction for SIGI?
Extracted: $83.00Open source
Selective Insurance Group (SIGI) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and ...
Search result #4
The average price target is $81.75 with a high forecast of $95.00 and a low forecast of $72.00. The average price target represents a -0.02% change from the ...
Extracted: $81.75, $95.00, $72.00Open source
Selective Insurance Group (Nasdaq:SIGI) - Stock Analysis
Search result #5
Selective Insurance Group, Inc. is covered by 19 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report.
Open source
SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP, INC. (SIGI) Stock, Price ... - MSN
Search result #6
High. 2.23 x. Analyst rating and price target. SIGI is rated "Hold" with a 12-month target price of $83.71, a ‎4.55% upside from the current price of $80.07.
Extracted: $83.71, $80.07Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$95 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$82 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$72 / p=20% prob

Price $96 as of 2026-07-10

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 1%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull -1% · Base -14% · Bear -25%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-01
Reserve review / actuarial commentary
Material reserve revisions or new actuarial guidance in filings/investor events could change profitability outlook.
Prob 60.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 35.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q4 2025 / FY2025 earnings (est.)
2026-04-30
Earnings release that updates combined ratio and reserve development; expect volatility around reported reserve adjustments and cat losses.
Prob 85% • Move 6% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Underwriting margin recovery
2027-01-30
Sustained rate adequacy and loss-cost normalization that supports margin improvement and potential re-rating over ~12 months.
Prob 55% • Move 25% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

Large catastrophe losses or higher reinsurance costs
Rate erosion from competitive pressure
Regulatory or capital constraints limiting underwriting flexibility
Reserve deterioration from prior accident years

Peers

Symbol	Summary
PGR	Large personal-lines insurer; comparable sensitivity to reserving and pricing cycles.
TRV	Diversified insurer with scale; useful benchmark for claims management and capital trends.
HIG	Regional/specialty peer with similar agency distribution and catastrophe exposure.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Selective Insurance Group Inc Common (SIGI) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-30