SHOP

Rating buyAI Memo

Shopify

As of 2026-01-16/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q4 / FY2025 earnings • 2026-02-28

Expected move: +52%

Biggest risk

Weaker GMV, slower adoption of higher‑margin services, or fulfillment/margin pressures lead to revenue and margin downgrades and price action toward the low‑$100s or below consensus lows.

Invalidation

Break below $122 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Shopify scales merchant monetization (Payments, Fulfillment, add-ons) and sustains GMV growth, driving revenue and margin expansion that supports re-rating toward the high‑$100s to ~$200 area.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-16

Base target

$180

p=60%

Bull target

$200

p=20%

Bear target

$122

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Analyst target revisions
Merchant growth & monetization
Shopify scales merchant monetization (Payments, Fulfillment, add-ons) and sustains GMV growth, driving revenue and margin expansion that supports re-rating toward the high‑$100s to ~$200 area.

BearKey bullets

Failure to monetize Payments/Fulfillment as expected
Large analyst downgrades or target cuts
Macro-driven merchant spending decline

WatchKey bullets

Q4 / FY2025 earnings

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $180 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +68% / +3%

Vs latest close: Bull +68% · Base +52% · Bear +3%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $200 (p=20%)Base Target: $180 (p=60%)Bear Target: $122 (p=20%)

Commentary

Consensus analyst targets skew modestly above the anchor with several highs near $200, supporting an upside case. Coverage shows meaningful dispersion (lows near the low‑$100s), reflecting macro and execution uncertainty.

As of 2026-01-16 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Shopify scales merchant monetization (Payments, Fulfillment, add-ons) and sustains GMV growth, driving revenue and margin expansion that supports re-rating toward the high‑$100s to ~$200 area.

Bear Case

Weaker GMV, slower adoption of higher‑margin services, or fulfillment/margin pressures lead to revenue and margin downgrades and price action toward the low‑$100s or below consensus lows.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Analyst target revisions
Merchant growth & monetization

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-16Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$171.61

Range (USD)

$110.00 - $200.00

Count

Query: Shopify Inc Class A Common (SHOP) analyst consensus price target high low average

SHOP | Shopify Inc. Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch
Search result #1
Stock Price Targets. High, $200.00. Median, $180.00. Low, $122.00. Average, $177.23. Current Price, $157.51. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. SHOP will report 2025 ...
Extracted: $200.00, $180.00, $122.00, $177.23, $157.51Open source
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #2
Find the latest Shopify Inc. (SHOP) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.
Open source
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and ... - TipRanks
Search result #3
The average price target is $180.62 with a high forecast of $200.00 and a low forecast of $140.00. The average price target represents a 7.87% change from the ...
Extracted: $180.62, $200.00, $140.00Open source
What is the current Price Target and Forecast for Shopify (SHOP)
Search result #4
The forecasts range from a low of $110.00 to a high of $200.00. The average price target represents an increase of 11.35% from the last closing price of $157.51 ...
Extracted: $110.00, $200.00, $157.51Open source
Shopify (SHOP) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026 - MarketBeat
Search result #5
According to the 45 analysts' twelve-month price targets for Shopify, the average price target is $171.61. The highest price target for SHOP is $200.00, while ...
Extracted: $171.61, $200.00Open source
Shopify Inc (SHOP) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #6
According to projections from 45 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Shopify Inc is 179.48889, with a high estimate of 200 and a low estimate of ...
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$200 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$180 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$122 / p=20% prob

Price $119 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 3%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +68% · Base +52% · Bear +3%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-02-28
Q4 / FY2025 earnings
Quarterly results and guidance—primary near-term liquidity event; date estimated from typical reporting cadence and may shift.
Prob 90.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 50.00%
EVENT2026-07-31
Macro commerce slowdown
Broader consumer-spend weakness or recession that materially reduces GMV and merchant monetization.
Prob 25.00% • Move 18.00% • Priced-in 30.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Analyst target revisions
2026-04-16
Post-earnings consensus updates (medians cluster near the low-to-mid $100s–$200s range) that can re-rate the stock.
Prob 40% • Move 10% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Merchant growth & monetization
2027-01-16
Sustained merchant additions and higher take-rates from Payments/Fulfillment that materially increase revenue and margins over multiple quarters.
Prob 35% • Move 50% • Priced-in 15%

Risks

Failure to monetize Payments/Fulfillment as expected
Large analyst downgrades or target cuts
Macro-driven merchant spending decline
Slowing GMV or rising merchant churn

Peers

Symbol	Summary
WIX	SMB-focused website and commerce tools—comparable on self-serve merchant acquisition and subscription monetization.
ETSY	Marketplace-led commerce—useful contrast for GMV sensitivity and demand-driven revenue swings.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Shopify Inc Class A Common (SHOP) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-16

AI Stock Memo: SHOP - Shopify - RankAlpha