SFBC

AI Memo

Sound Financial Bancorp

As of 2026-01-27/Confidence medium/Horizon 3m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

Key catalyst

Capital / dividend / regulatory actions • 2026-04-27

Expected move: -2%

Biggest risk

NIM compression, unexpected deposit outflows, or elevated credit costs push valuation toward recent lows; any capital issuance would further pressure the share price.

Invalidation

Break below $43 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Recovery in regional spreads and above-consensus loan growth drives re-rating toward the analyst high; improving credit metrics and steady deposit trends support upside.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-27

Base target

$44

p=60%

Bull target

$55

p=20%

Bear target

$43

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly earnings release (Q4 / FY2025)
Net interest margin normalization and loan growth
Recovery in regional spreads and above-consensus loan growth drives re-rating toward the analyst high; improving credit metrics and steady deposit trends support upside.

BearKey bullets

Adverse regulatory or capital actions
Deposit outflows or funding stress
Higher-than-expected credit losses

WatchKey bullets

Capital / dividend / regulatory actions

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $44 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +21% / -5%

Vs latest close: Bull +21% · Base -2% · Bear -5%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $55 (p=20%)Base Target: $44 (p=60%)Bear Target: $43 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market coverage is light but shows recent stable pricing around the low-44s with some upside in analyst snippets [#SERP-2][#SERP-8]. News and quote pages present a neutral-to-cautious tone; analyst target dispersion is moderate with a higher outlier at the analyst high [#SERP-1]. Overall sentiment is neutral, leaning slightly cautious given regional-bank funding sensitivity [#SERP-4].

As of 2026-01-27 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Recovery in regional spreads and above-consensus loan growth drives re-rating toward the analyst high; improving credit metrics and steady deposit trends support upside.

Bear Case

NIM compression, unexpected deposit outflows, or elevated credit costs push valuation toward recent lows; any capital issuance would further pressure the share price.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly earnings release (Q4 / FY2025)
Net interest margin normalization and loan growth

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-27Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$44.28

Range (USD)

$42.75 - $54.69

Count

Query: Sound Financial Bancorp Inc Common (SFBC) analyst consensus price target high low average

Sound Financial Bancorp, Inc. (SFBC) - Yahoo Finance
Search result #1
See Sound Financial Bancorp, Inc. (SFBC) stock analyst estimates, including earnings and revenue, EPS, upgrades and downgrades.
Open source
SFBC Stock Quote Price and Forecast - CNN
Search result #2
The price of SFBC shares has decreased $0.05 since the market last closed. This is a 0.11% drop. Closed at $44.39.
Extracted: $44.39Open source
SFBC Stock Forecast - Sound Financial Bancorp Inc - Alpha Spread
Search result #3
SFBC price targets and financial estimates made by Wall st analysts. Profitability Analysis. Detailed analysis of the company's profitability. Solvency Analysis.
Open source
Sound Financial Bancorp Inc. Analyst Estimates - SFBC - MarketWatch
Search result #4
Stock Price Targets. High, N/A. Median, N/A. Low, N/A. Average, N/A. Current Price, $43.75. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. SFBC will report earnings on 02/09/2010 ...
Extracted: $43.75Open source
Sound Financial Bancorp Inc (SFBC) - NASDAQ - Investing.com
Search result #5
Upside (Analyst Target). -, 10.5%, 12.5%. Fair Value Upside. Unlock, 3.0%, 1.0%, Unlock. Firm. Position, Price Target, Upside / Downside, From Price Target ...
Open source
Sound Community Bank (SFBC) - Stocks - Robinhood
Search result #6
As of 2026-01-20, Sound Community Bank(SFBC) stock has fluctuated between $44.20 and $44.26. The current price stands at $44.21, placing the stock +0.0% above ...
Extracted: $44.20, $44.26, $44.21Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$55 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$44 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$43 / p=20% prob

Price $45 as of 2026-07-23

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 2%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +21% · Base -2% · Bear -5%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-27
Capital / dividend / regulatory actions
Dividend change, capital raise, or regulatory action would be material; no specific filing or date located so conservatively assume event window end per guidance [#SERP-6][#SERP-8].
Prob 30.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 20.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly earnings release (Q4 / FY2025)
2026-04-27
Upcoming quarterly results could move shares; no confirmed public date found so using conservative short-window estimate. Market/analyst pages show active coverage and recent quote activity [#SERP-1][#SERP-8]. Date assumed per short-window rule.
Prob 70% • Move 6% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Net interest margin normalization and loan growth
2027-01-27
Medium-term improvement in NIM / loan growth could drive re-rating if regional spread environment stabilizes; sector pages note recent price/volume context [#SERP-3][#SERP-8].
Prob 60% • Move 15% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

Adverse regulatory or capital actions
Deposit outflows or funding stress
Higher-than-expected credit losses
NIM compression from rate moves

Peers

Symbol	Summary
PNFP	Regional community bank peer; comparable emphasis on commercial lending and regional deposits.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Sound Financial Bancorp Inc Common (SFBC) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-27

AI Stock Memo: SFBC - Sound Financial Bancorp - RankAlpha