SCI

TentativeAI Memo

Service International

As of 2026-09-27/Confidence medium/Horizon 6‑12m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-09-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

6‑12m

Key catalyst

Declared dividend payment • 2026-09-30

Base target: $82 / p=50% prob

Biggest risk

Funeral service volume declined 1% despite stronger average revenue, funeral gross profit fell, and deferred cemetery sales temporarily pressured margins. A failure to convert preneed production into recognized profit would weaken the thesis. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]

Invalidation

Break below $68 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Higher funeral sales averages, preneed production, and operating cash flow support earnings resilience and future backlog conversion. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-09-27

Base target

$82

p=50%

Bull target

$90

p=25%

Bear target

$68

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

2026 cash-flow delivery
Preneed backlog conversion
Higher funeral sales averages, preneed production, and operating cash flow support earnings resilience and future backlog conversion.

BearKey bullets

Deferred cemetery property recognition can pressure near-term gross margins, and backlog conversion timing is uncertain.
[#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
Funeral service volume softness could outlast gains in average revenue per service.

WatchKey bullets

Declared dividend payment

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

6‑12m

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $82 (p=50%)

Target spread vs base: +10% / -17%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $90 (p=25%)Base Target: $82 (p=50%)Bear Target: $68 (p=25%)

Commentary

Primary-source operating evidence is constructive, but recent headline coverage is sparse. The September 25 anchor is $77.84; no reliable post-release price-reaction attribution or analyst-revision history was supplied. Social sentiment, options skew, short interest, and employee-rating figures are unavailable; the zero fields above represent missing data, not measured neutral or zero readings. Paired executive option exercises and sales are not treated as evidence of operating performance. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-04]

As of 2026-09-27 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Higher funeral sales averages, preneed production, and operating cash flow support earnings resilience and future backlog conversion. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

2026 cash-flow delivery
Preneed backlog conversion

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$90 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$82 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$68 / p=25% prob

Analysis 2026-09-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-09-30
Declared dividend payment
SCI declared a $0.36-per-share dividend payable September 30. The payment is largely anticipated and is not, by itself, evidence of improving operations. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-05]
Prob 98.00% • Move 1.00% • Priced-in 95.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

2026 cash-flow delivery
2026-12-31
Second-quarter operating cash flow rose 43% year over year to $238.7 million. SCI raised full-year cash-flow guidance while maintaining the midpoint of EPS guidance; delivery through year-end is the key near-term test. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
Prob 70% • Move 5% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Preneed backlog conversion
2027-12-31
Comparable cemetery and funeral preneed sales production rose 8% and 7%, respectively. Management said deferred cemetery property sales temporarily pressured margins but could yield higher-margin revenue in future periods; conversion timing remains uncertain. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
Prob 65% • Move 12% • Priced-in 50%

Risks

Deferred cemetery property recognition can pressure near-term gross margins, and backlog conversion timing is uncertain. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
Funeral service volume softness could outlast gains in average revenue per service. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
The declared dividend does not guarantee future dividends, which remain subject to board approval. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-05]

Peers

Symbol	Summary
CSV	Carriage Services is a direct U.S. funeral-and-cemetery operating comparator. Its 2025 annual report describes 155 funeral homes and 28 cemeteries and reports funeral and cemetery operations at approximately 65% and 35% of revenue. Funeral volume, pricing, preneed sales, and fixed-cost leverage are relevant comparisons, though CSV is much smaller than SCI. Source: https://investors.carriageservices.com/static-files/43945545-4a22-434f-8371-153c4a3fa146

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-09-27

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Symbol

Summary

CSV

Carriage Services is a direct U.S. funeral-and-cemetery operating comparator. Its 2025 annual report describes 155 funeral homes and 28 cemeteries and reports funeral and cemetery operations at approximately 65% and 35% of revenue. Funeral volume, pricing, preneed sales, and fixed-cost leverage are relevant comparisons, though CSV is much smaller than SCI. Source: https://investors.carriageservices.com/static-files/43945545-4a22-434f-8371-153c4a3fa146