RLGT

Rating neutralAI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Radiant Logistics

As of 2026-05-14/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Capital allocation remains a live support lever • 2026-09-30

Base target: $8 / p=50% prob

Biggest risk

The bear read is that the quarter did not show a clean operating inflection: adjusted gross profit, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, and nine-month adjusted earnings all declined year over year, suggesting the freight environment is still pressuring earnings quality even with flat revenue. T+3 analyst revision evidence remains sparse, so there is little external confirmation that estimates or targets have moved up materially after the print.

Invalidation

Break below $7 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The best post-print bull read is that RLGT held revenue flat in a difficult freight market, improved GAAP profitability year over year, maintained strong liquidity, and still has capacity for buybacks or acquisitions. Management's comments on domestic truckload/intermodal improvement and technology enablement provide some medium-term upside optionality.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-14

Base target

p=50%

Bull target

p=25%

Bear target

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Post-earnings setup is balanced rather than clearly bullish
Domestic recovery and internal tech execution could help offset a difficult freight backdrop
The best post-print bull read is that RLGT held revenue flat in a difficult freight market, improved GAAP profitability year over year, maintained strong liquidity, and still has capacity for buybacks or acquisitions.

BearKey bullets

Adjusted gross profit, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EBITDA margin declined year over year in fiscal Q3 despite flat revenue, signaling margin compression risk.
Low analyst coverage and limited post-earnings revision data make it harder for the stock to gain a stronger rerating quickly.
Management described a sharply divergent freight environment, with international disruption and uneven domestic conditions limiting forward visibility.

WatchKey bullets

Capital allocation remains a live support lever

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $8 (p=50%)

Target spread vs base: +16% / -14%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $9 (p=25%)Base Target: $8 (p=50%)Bear Target: $7 (p=25%)

Commentary

News tone around the May 11, 2026 earnings release was mildly positive because coverage highlighted an earnings beat, but the market reaction was muted: the stock closed at $8.37 on May 13 versus about $8.31 on May 7 before the release, so the tape did not confirm a strong rerating. By this T+3 follow-up, analyst revision visibility is still sparse and coverage is thin, which supports a monitoring stance rather than a high-conviction bullish call.

As of 2026-05-14 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Post-earnings setup is balanced rather than clearly bullish
Domestic recovery and internal tech execution could help offset a difficult freight backdrop

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$9 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$8 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$7 / p=25% prob

Analysis 2026-05-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.10

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-09-30
Capital allocation remains a live support lever
Management said the company is essentially debt free on a net basis relative to its $200 million credit facility, and the March 31 10-Q reported $39.7 million of unrestricted cash plus $29.4 million of operating cash flow over the first nine months of fiscal 2026. The company also repurchased 585,050 shares for $3.5 million during the nine-month period, leaving room for further buybacks or tuck-in M&A if freight conditions stabilize. [#10-Q-2026-05-11]
Prob 60.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 45.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Post-earnings setup is balanced rather than clearly bullish
2026-05-30
Radiant's May 11 earnings release showed fiscal Q3 revenue essentially flat at $214.1 million while adjusted gross profit, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EBITDA margin declined year over year; GAAP EPS improved to $0.10 and adjusted EPS was $0.11. By May 13, the stock was $8.37 versus $8.31 on May 7, implying only a muted post-print reaction despite the earnings beat framing. [#8-K-2026-05-11]
Prob 70% • Move 4% • Priced-in 65%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Domestic recovery and internal tech execution could help offset a difficult freight backdrop
2026-12-31
Management described encouraging signs of a supply-driven recovery in North American truckload and intermodal markets and highlighted continued work on the Navegate platform and 'Ray,' its first AI agent. If those tools improve operating efficiency while domestic freight normalizes, RLGT could rebuild margins from the current compressed level, but the same release also described a sharply divergent freight environment, so visibility remains limited. [#8-K-2026-05-11]
Prob 45% • Move 10% • Priced-in 35%

Risks

Adjusted gross profit, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EBITDA margin declined year over year in fiscal Q3 despite flat revenue, signaling margin compression risk.
Low analyst coverage and limited post-earnings revision data make it harder for the stock to gain a stronger rerating quickly.
Management described a sharply divergent freight environment, with international disruption and uneven domestic conditions limiting forward visibility.
RLGT remains exposed to execution risk around operating partner conversions, tuck-in acquisitions, and integration of acquired businesses.
The company still cites risks tied to disclosure controls/internal control history, cyber incidents, and transportation-industry regulatory or macro shocks. [#8-K-2026-05-11]

Peers

Symbol	Summary
FDX	FedEx is a much larger integrated freight and logistics operator, but it is the closest candidate in the packet to a direct logistics comp; RLGT lacks FDX's scale and network density, so margin and valuation comparisons should be conservative.
CSX	CSX is a broad transportation comp rather than a direct freight-forwarding peer; it is useful mainly as a read on transport demand sensitivity, not on RLGT's asset-light brokerage and forwarding model.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-05-14

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Symbol

Summary

FDX

FedEx is a much larger integrated freight and logistics operator, but it is the closest candidate in the packet to a direct logistics comp; RLGT lacks FDX's scale and network density, so margin and valuation comparisons should be conservative.

CSX

CSX is a broad transportation comp rather than a direct freight-forwarding peer; it is useful mainly as a read on transport demand sensitivity, not on RLGT's asset-light brokerage and forwarding model.