AI Stock Memo: RIVN - Rivian Automotive - RankAlpha

RIVN

AI Memo

Rivian Automotive

As of 2026-02-14/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Next quarterly earnings • 2026-05-15

Expected move: +15%

Biggest risk

Bear: production delays, sustained cash burn or weak demand force downward revisions and push valuation toward the analyst low absent clear operational improvement [#SERP-2].

Invalidation

Break below $10 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull: timely production ramps, margin expansion and stronger demand de-risk capital needs and push valuation toward the analyst high; execution would enable a meaningful re-rate [#SERP-3].

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-14

Base target

$17

p=60%

Bull target

$26

p=20%

Bear target

$10

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Next quarterly earnings
Analyst target/consensus revisions
Full-year production/guidance update

BearKey bullets

Demand weakness or pricing pressure
High cash burn / need for dilution
Macro/interest-rate pressure on EV multiples

WatchKey bullets

ANCHOR: {"price": 17.76, "timestamp_utc": "2026-02-14T09:23:03+00:00", "source": "broker_last"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Targets align to the observable analyst distribution: base_target equals the reported analyst median (17.44), bull_target equals the reported analyst high (26.25), and bear_target aligns with the reported analyst low (10.0).

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $17 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +73% / -34%

Vs latest close: Bull +73% · Base +15% · Bear -34%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $26 (p=20%)Base Target: $17 (p=60%)Bear Target: $10 (p=20%)

Commentary

Sentiment is mixed-to-neutral: median targets cluster near current levels while a wide high/low spread signals divergent views on execution and financing risk [#SERP-2][#SERP-3]. Near-term tone centers on upcoming earnings and delivery cadence; longer-term views hinge on margin and scale progress [#SERP-5].

As of 2026-02-14 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull: timely production ramps, margin expansion and stronger demand de-risk capital needs and push valuation toward the analyst high; execution would enable a meaningful re-rate [#SERP-3].

Bear Case

Bear: production delays, sustained cash burn or weak demand force downward revisions and push valuation toward the analyst low absent clear operational improvement [#SERP-2].

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Next quarterly earnings
Analyst target/consensus revisions
Full-year production/guidance update

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-14Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$17.44

Range (USD)

$10.00 - $26.25

Count

Query: Rivian Automotive Inc Class A Common (RIVN) analyst consensus price target high low average

Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts
Search result #1
See Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) stock analyst estimates, including earnings and revenue, EPS, upgrades and downgrades.
Open source
Rivian Automotive Inc. Cl A Analyst Estimates - RIVN - MarketWatch
Search result #2
Stock Price Targets. High, $25.00. Median, $17.50. Low, $10.00. Average, $17.67. Current Price, $14.00. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. RIVN will report 2026 ...
Extracted: $25.00, $17.50, $10.00, $17.67, $14.00Open source
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and ...
Search result #3
The average price target is $17.69 with a high forecast of $25.00 and a low forecast of $10.00. The average price target represents a 19.85% change from the ...
Extracted: $17.69, $25.00, $10.00Open source
RIVN Stock Forecast 2026 - Rivian Price Targets & Predictions
Search result #4
Based on our analysis of 29 Wall Street analysts, RIVN has a neutral consensus with a median price target of $16.00 (ranging from $10.00 to $25.00). The overall ...
Extracted: $16.00, $10.00, $25.00Open source
Rivian Automotive Inc - RIVN Stock Forecast - Alpha Spread
Search result #5
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for RIVN is 17.379 USD with a low forecast of 10.1 USD and a high forecast of 26.25 USD. What ...
Extracted: $17.38, $10.10, $26.25Open source
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #6
Top Analyst. Canaccord Genuity. 64/100. Latest Rating. Buy. Analyst Price Targets. 10.00 Low. 17.60 Average. 17.73 目前. 25.00 High. Analyst Recommendations.
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$26 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$17 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$10 / p=20% prob

Price $15 as of 2026-05-28

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 15%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +73% · Base +15% · Bear -34%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Next quarterly earnings
2026-05-15
Quarterly results and guidance are the primary near-term volatility driver; consensus shows a tight median with wide high/low dispersion that can amplify moves [#SERP-2][#SERP-3].
Prob 85% • Move 18% • Priced-in 60%
Analyst target/consensus revisions
2026-05-15
Analyst revisions to the consensus median (~17.44) or range (≈10–26.25) can shift sentiment around earnings and events [#SERP-2][#SERP-5].
Prob 60% • Move 8% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Full-year production/guidance update
2027-02-14
Progress on production, deliveries and FY-2026 guidance could materially re-rate valuation; date conservatively set a year out to capture guidance cycles.
Prob 50% • Move 40% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Demand weakness or pricing pressure
High cash burn / need for dilution
Macro/interest-rate pressure on EV multiples
Production/delivery delays
Supply-chain disruption

Peers

Symbol	Summary
TSLA	Scale leader in EVs and software monetization; benchmark for long-term margins and ecosystem advantages.
F	Legacy OEM with scale and supply-chain context; relevant for production and volume economics.
LCID	Smaller EV pure-play highlighting execution and production risk contrasts.
GM	Large incumbent shifting to EVs; comparator for manufacturing scale and channel dynamics.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Rivian Automotive Inc Class A Common (RIVN) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-14