AI Stock Memo: RDW - Redwire - RankAlpha

RDW

AI Memo

Redwire

As of 2026-01-25/Confidence medium/Horizon 3m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

Key catalyst

Government/commercial contract awards or mission milestones • 2026-12-31

Expected move: +27%

Biggest risk

Bear case centers on program delays, concentrated government revenue, or weaker-than-expected commercial demand that compresses multiples and guidance.

Invalidation

Break below $7 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case assumes successful contract awards and mission deliveries, improving revenue visibility and multiple expansion toward peers.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-25

Base target

$12

p=60%

Bull target

$18

p=20%

Bear target

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Near-term analyst revisions / earnings surprise
Secular growth in space infrastructure and commercial demand
Bull case assumes successful contract awards and mission deliveries, improving revenue visibility and multiple expansion toward peers.

BearKey bullets

High customer concentration in government contracts
Program delays or payload failures
Supply-chain or component shortages affecting delivery schedules

WatchKey bullets

Government/commercial contract awards or mission milestones

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $12 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +85% / -28%

Vs latest close: Bull +85% · Base +27% · Bear -28%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $18 (p=20%)Base Target: $12 (p=60%)Bear Target: $7 (p=20%)

Commentary

Analyst coverage is limited but shows a narrow median (~$12.4) and a wide high/low dispersion, reflecting mixed views on upside [#SERP-9], [#SERP-2]. Market tone appears neutral-to-cautious given modest analyst upside vs current price and execution risk on contracts [#SERP-1].

As of 2026-01-25 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull case assumes successful contract awards and mission deliveries, improving revenue visibility and multiple expansion toward peers.

Bear Case

Bear case centers on program delays, concentrated government revenue, or weaker-than-expected commercial demand that compresses multiples and guidance.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Near-term analyst revisions / earnings surprise
Secular growth in space infrastructure and commercial demand

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-25Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$12.40

Range (USD)

$6.00 - $23.10

Count

Query: Redwire Corp Common (RDW) analyst consensus price target high low average

Redwire Corp (RDW) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #1
According to projections from 9 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Redwire is 12.556, with a high estimate of 22 and a low estimate of 6.
Open source
RDW Stock Forecast - Redwire Corp - Alpha Spread
Search result #2
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for RDW is 12.24 USD with a low forecast of 6.06 USD and a high forecast of 23.1 USD. What is ...
Extracted: $12.24, $6.06, $23.10Open source
Redwire (RDW) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026 - MarketBeat
Search result #3
The highest price target for RDW is $22.00, while the lowest price target for RDW is $6.00. The average price target represents a forecasted upside of 5.28% ...
Extracted: $22.00, $6.00Open source
Redwire Corporation (RDW) Price Targets
Search result #4
The forecasts range from a low of $6.00 to a high of $22.00. The average price target represents an increase of 4.84% from the last closing price of $11.98.
Extracted: $6.00, $22.00, $11.98Open source
Redwire Corporation: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #5
Redwire Corporation analysts consensus, targets, ratings and recommendations | Nyse: RDW | Nyse. ... Evolution of the Average Target: Redwire Corporation ...
Open source
Redwire Corporation Stock Forecast | RDW Price Target & Analyst ...
Search result #6
The average 12-month price target for Redwire Corporation is $13.20, based on 5 analysts. The highest price target is $22.00, while the lowest is $9.00.
Extracted: $13.20, $22.00, $9.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$18 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$12 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$7 / p=20% prob

Price $10 as of 2026-07-14

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 27%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +85% · Base +27% · Bear -28%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-12-31
Government/commercial contract awards or mission milestones
Contract awards or mission milestones (e.g., mission deliveries or procurement wins) can trigger outsized moves; date assumed at year-end window (conservative end-of-window assumption) if no firm public date is available [#SERP-3].
Prob 25.00% • Move 20.00% • Priced-in 30.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Near-term analyst revisions / earnings surprise
2026-04-25
Quarterly results or near-term analyst estimate changes could move the stock; analyst consensus shows a tight median near $12.4 which can amplify reactions to beats/misses [#SERP-1], [#SERP-2].
Prob 55% • Move 8% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Secular growth in space infrastructure and commercial demand
2027-01-25
Long-term adoption of commercial space infrastructure and increased mission cadence could materially expand revenue opportunities over the next year [#SERP-6], [#SERP-1].
Prob 20% • Move 30% • Priced-in 15%

Risks

High customer concentration in government contracts
Program delays or payload failures
Supply-chain or component shortages affecting delivery schedules

Peers

Symbol	Summary
RKLB	Launch and small-satellite systems competitor; comparison useful for launch/manifest demand trends.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Redwire Corp Common (RDW) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-25