QNST

Rating neutralAI MemoPost-earnings T+1

QuinStreet

As of 2026-05-08/Post-earnings T+1/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q3 print and Q4 guide reset the near-term setup • 2026-08-01

Expected move: +24%

Biggest risk

The bear read is that the post-earnings setup is not unequivocally clean: AP/Zacks said adjusted EPS of $0.31 was a penny below the four-analyst consensus even as revenue beat, and T+1 analyst revision evidence was thin. The 10-Q also shows $70M of debt and sizable post-closing payment obligations after the HomeBuddy deal, increasing execution pressure if demand cools [#10-Q-2026-05-08].

Invalidation

Break below $11 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The strongest bull read is that Q3 confirmed real operating leverage: revenue grew 28% year over year, adjusted EBITDA grew 53%, operating cash flow was $36.9M, and management guided to another record quarter with continued margin expansion [#8-K-2026-05-07]. Home services growth and HomeBuddy integration add a second leg beyond auto insurance [#10-Q-2026-05-08].

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-08

Base target

$16

p=45%

Bull target

$19

p=25%

Bear target

$11

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Immediate post-earnings digestion remains mixed rather than fully confirmed
Home services mix and HomeBuddy integration can extend growth
The strongest bull read is that Q3 confirmed real operating leverage: revenue grew 28% year over year, adjusted EBITDA grew 53%, operating cash flow was $36.9M, and management guided to another record quarter with continued margin expansion [#8-K-2026-05-07].

BearKey bullets

A slight adjusted EPS miss versus consensus on an otherwise strong quarter shows valuation still depends on margin conversion, not just top-line growth.
Auto insurance remains a major revenue driver; the 10-Q says results depend significantly on carrier advertising demand and can be hurt by macro conditions, weather losses, or supply-chain effects [#10-Q-2026-05-08].
Client budget volatility, data privacy/security exposure, and regulatory pressure remain standing risks called out in company disclosures [#8-K-2026-05-07].

WatchKey bullets

Q3 print and Q4 guide reset the near-term setup

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+1

Base case: $16 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +52% / -16%

Vs latest close: Bull +52% · Base +24% · Bear -16%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $19 (p=25%)Base Target: $16 (p=45%)Bear Target: $11 (p=30%)

Commentary

Headline tone improved after the May 7, 2026 earnings release because the company posted record revenue, profit, and Q4 guidance, but the May 8, 2026 tape was not a clean endorsement: shares traded below the May 7 close late in the session. Trusted follow-up coverage showed a mixed surprise profile, with revenue above consensus but adjusted EPS roughly in line to slightly below. Because this is a low-coverage T+1 follow-up with limited visible analyst revision data, the read remains monitoring-oriented rather than a high-conviction post-earnings upgrade.

As of 2026-05-08 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Immediate post-earnings digestion remains mixed rather than fully confirmed
Home services mix and HomeBuddy integration can extend growth

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$19 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$16 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$11 / p=30% prob

Price $13 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 16%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +52% · Base +24% · Bear -16%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.20

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-08-01
Q3 print and Q4 guide reset the near-term setup
QuinStreet reported record fiscal Q3 revenue of $346.1M, GAAP net income of $7.4M, adjusted EBITDA of $29.6M, and guided fiscal Q4 revenue to $350M-$370M with adjusted EBITDA of $37M-$43M, both implying another quarterly record and margin expansion [#8-K-2026-05-07]. AP/Zacks also framed the print as a revenue beat but a slight adjusted EPS miss versus consensus, which supports a constructive but not clean post-print read.
Prob 70.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 55.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Immediate post-earnings digestion remains mixed rather than fully confirmed
2026-05-22
The stock opened sharply lower on May 8, 2026 and was still below the May 7 anchor close by late trading despite record results, suggesting investors are weighing the small EPS miss, acquisition-related balance-sheet additions, and how durable the Q4 setup is. A cleaner analyst revision cycle would help, but visible post-print rating and target changes were limited at T+1.
Prob 50% • Move 6% • Priced-in 65%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Home services mix and HomeBuddy integration can extend growth
2026-11-01
The 10-Q shows home services revenue rose 63% year over year in the quarter, with HomeBuddy contributing about $39.1M of quarterly revenue, while management said integration and synergy capture are progressing [#10-Q-2026-05-08]. If acquired volume scales without eroding margin, the market may give more credit to a broader, less insurance-concentrated growth profile.
Prob 60% • Move 10% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

A slight adjusted EPS miss versus consensus on an otherwise strong quarter shows valuation still depends on margin conversion, not just top-line growth.
Auto insurance remains a major revenue driver; the 10-Q says results depend significantly on carrier advertising demand and can be hurt by macro conditions, weather losses, or supply-chain effects [#10-Q-2026-05-08].
Client budget volatility, data privacy/security exposure, and regulatory pressure remain standing risks called out in company disclosures [#8-K-2026-05-07].
HomeBuddy integration must convert into durable synergies; the deal added goodwill, intangibles, $70M of debt, and substantial post-closing payment obligations [#10-Q-2026-05-08].

Peers

Symbol	Summary
EVER	EverQuote is the closest operating peer in the packet because both monetize performance-based consumer acquisition in insurance; QNST currently looks stronger on scale and current growth, but insurance ad-spend cyclicality is a shared risk.
CRTO	Criteo is a looser peer but relevant on ad-tech and performance-marketing execution; QNST’s recent upside is more vertical-specific and lead-gen driven, so peer read-through is limited.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-08

AI Stock Memo: QNST - QuinStreet - RankAlpha