AI Stock Memo: QBTS - D-Wave Quantum - RankAlpha

QBTS

Rating neutralTentativeAI Memo

D-Wave Quantum

As of 2026-04-28/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Post-year-end bookings momentum needs to translate into visible revenue and backlog support • 2026-09-30

Expected move: -38%

Biggest risk

The main bear argument is that the stock already discounts a large part of the commercialization story while the operating model remains early and uneven: FY2025 bookings fell 22% year over year, revenue was heavily helped by system sales, operating expenses rose 46%, and only $13.4 million of remaining performance obligations were disclosed at year-end, with about 14% expected to be recognized in the next 12 months [#10-K-2026-02-26].

Invalidation

Break below $10 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The strongest bull argument is that D-Wave entered 2026 with unusually strong demand signals relative to its historical scale: FY2025 revenue rose 179% to $24.6 million, gross margin improved, liquidity reached a record $884.5 million, and management disclosed more than $32.8 million of Q1 year-to-date 2026 bookings by February 25, 2026, suggesting commercial traction could be accelerating beyond the lumpy 2025 base [#8-K-2026-02-26].

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-04-28

Base target

$18

p=45%

Bull target

$32

p=25%

Bear target

$10

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

May 12 Q1 FY2026 report is the next hard proof point
Dual-platform expansion and government/commercial adoption can widen the narrative, but execution must catch up
The strongest bull argument is that D-Wave entered 2026 with unusually strong demand signals relative to its historical scale: FY2025 revenue rose 179% to $24.6 million, gross margin improved, liquidity reached a record $884.5 million, and management disclosed more than $32.8 million of Q1 year-to-date 2026 bookings by February 25, 2026, suggesting commercial traction could be accelerating beyond the lumpy 2025 base [#8-K-2026-02-26].

BearKey bullets

Execution risk remains elevated around integrating Quantum Circuits and proving that the dual-platform strategy can create durable commercial advantage rather than just a broader narrative [#8-K-2026-02-26].
Near-term revenue visibility is still imperfect; the 10-K disclosed $13.4 million of remaining performance obligations at December 31, 2025, with only about 14% expected to be recognized in the next 12 months [#10-K-2026-02-26].
Operating expense growth is still heavy relative to current revenue scale; FY2025 GAAP operating expenses increased 46% as D-Wave invested in product development and go-to-market capacity, so commercialization must keep accelerating to justify the cost base [#8-K-2026-02-26].

WatchKey bullets

Post-year-end bookings momentum needs to translate into visible revenue and backlog support

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $18 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +10% / -66%

Vs latest close: Bull +10% · Base -38% · Bear -66%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $32 (p=25%)Base Target: $18 (p=45%)Bear Target: $10 (p=30%)

Commentary

Headline flow is active and mostly supportive, centered on the scheduled May 12, 2026 earnings release and continued investor-conference participation, but the deterministic prior remains neutral and catalyst density is still modest. There is no usable social-coverage packet here, and direct-peer evidence remains thin beyond IonQ and Rigetti as public quantum-computing comparators, so the setup looks more like a high-volatility monitoring name than a high-confidence directional call ahead of results.

As of 2026-04-28 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

May 12 Q1 FY2026 report is the next hard proof point
Dual-platform expansion and government/commercial adoption can widen the narrative, but execution must catch up

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$32 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$18 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$10 / p=30% prob

Price $29 as of 2026-06-01

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 10%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +10% · Base -38% · Bear -66%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.20

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-09-30
Post-year-end bookings momentum needs to translate into visible revenue and backlog support
In its February 26, 2026 results release, D-Wave said January bookings exceeded $30 million and that first-quarter year-to-date 2026 bookings exceeded $32.8 million as of February 25, helped by a $20 million Florida Atlantic University system purchase and a $10 million two-year Fortune 100 QCaaS agreement; successful conversion of those wins into recognized revenue or firmer backlog metrics would support the stock, while weak conversion would undercut the thesis [#8-K-2026-02-26].
Prob 60.00% • Move 18.00% • Priced-in 45.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

May 12 Q1 FY2026 report is the next hard proof point
2026-05-12
D-Wave said it will report first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on May 12, 2026 before market open, with management hosting an 8:00 a.m. ET call; this is the clearest near-term test of whether the strong post-year-end demand commentary is converting into reported revenue, bookings, and guidance [#PR-2026-04-23].
Prob 80% • Move 12% • Priced-in 55%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Dual-platform expansion and government/commercial adoption can widen the narrative, but execution must catch up
2026-12-31
Management highlighted the Quantum Circuits acquisition, a new U.S. government-focused business unit, and technical progress in gate-model and annealing systems as part of a broader dual-platform strategy; if these moves deepen customer adoption and sustain larger deal flow, they could extend the commercial quantum leadership narrative, but the payoff remains execution-dependent [#8-K-2026-02-26].
Prob 45% • Move 22% • Priced-in 50%

Risks

Execution risk remains elevated around integrating Quantum Circuits and proving that the dual-platform strategy can create durable commercial advantage rather than just a broader narrative [#8-K-2026-02-26].
Near-term revenue visibility is still imperfect; the 10-K disclosed $13.4 million of remaining performance obligations at December 31, 2025, with only about 14% expected to be recognized in the next 12 months [#10-K-2026-02-26].
Operating expense growth is still heavy relative to current revenue scale; FY2025 GAAP operating expenses increased 46% as D-Wave invested in product development and go-to-market capacity, so commercialization must keep accelerating to justify the cost base [#8-K-2026-02-26].
Peer benchmarking is inherently noisy because the packet's same-sector software candidates are not direct quantum-computing operators, while the closer public quantum cohort has different architectures and still-limited operating maturity.
Revenue remains lumpy and concentrated in large system deals; the 10-K says FY2025 revenue growth was primarily driven by $16.2 million of system sales, which raises the risk of sharp quarterly volatility if follow-on conversions slip [#10-K-2026-02-26].

Peers

Symbol	Summary
IONQ	IonQ is the most relevant public-market comparator in the packet because recent trusted coverage groups IonQ with D-Wave inside the quantum-computing cohort. It is not a perfect operating peer because D-Wave emphasizes annealing systems and QCaaS while IonQ has a different quantum architecture, so the comparison is most useful for sentiment and valuation-risk framing rather than direct margin or growth benchmarking.
RGTI	Rigetti is the other direct public quantum-computing comparator identified in recent trusted coverage alongside D-Wave and IonQ. Like IonQ, it is a closer peer than the generic software companies in the packet, but operating-model differences mean QBTS should still be treated as a thin direct-peer case rather than benchmarked against conventional enterprise-software names.
BSY	Bentley Systems appears in the packet only as a same-sector, similar-market-cap software candidate, not as a direct operating peer. It should be used only as a broad software valuation sanity check, while the primary sentiment read-through for QBTS should come from public quantum names such as IonQ and Rigetti.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-04-28