B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
QBTS
D-Wave QuantumCNasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The strongest bull argument is that D-Wave entered 2026 with unusually strong demand signals relative to its historical scale: FY2025 revenue rose 179% to $24.6 million, gross margin improved, liquidity reached a record $884.5 million, and management disclosed more than $32.8 million of Q1 year-to-date 2026 bookings by February 25, 2026, suggesting commercial traction could be accelerating beyond the lumpy 2025 base [#8-K-2026-02-26].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.8.
What can break
Execution risk remains elevated around integrating Quantum Circuits and proving that the dual-platform strategy can create durable commercial advantage rather than just a broader narrative [#8-K-2026-02-26].
Momentum
9
Value
35
Sentiment
76
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $18.00 · Bull $32.00 · Bear $10.00Analysis 2026-04-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-08
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $35.73
Why
Momentum9 · Δ7d -0.2
Value35 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment76 · Δ7d +7.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Execution risk remains elevated around integrating Quantum Circuits and proving that the dual-platform strategy can create durable commercial advantage rather than just a broader narrative [#8-K-2026-02-26].
- • Near-term revenue visibility is still imperfect; the 10-K disclosed $13.4 million of remaining performance obligations at December 31, 2025, with only about 14% expected to be recognized in the next 12 months [#10-K-2026-02-26].
- • The main bear argument is that the stock already discounts a large part of the commercialization story while the operating model remains early and uneven: FY2025 bookings fell 22% year over year, revenue was heavily helped by system sales, operating expenses rose 46%, and only $13.4 million of remaining performance obligations were disclosed at year-end, with about 14% expected to be recognized in the next 12 months [#10-K-2026-02-26].
Catalyst clock
2026-05-12
May 12 Q1 FY2026 report is the next hard proof point
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
9
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-11.6
Value
35
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
76
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.8
Δ21d
+32.5
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 8.8 / Value 35.1 / Sentiment 75.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-28. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$10.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$7.77B
Beta
1.55
Shares Out
372.44M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-18.9
P/S (TTM)
444.32
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-63.34
Rev YoY
-0.6%
EPS YoY
-76.6%
Gross Margin
-7.3%
Op Margin
-1372.9%
Net Debt
-$841.02M
Current Ratio
20.55
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data