PSNY

Rating neutralAI Memo

Polestar Automotive UK

As of 2026-04-16/Confidence medium/Horizon 3m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

Key catalyst

Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results Release • 2026-04-17

Expected move: -11%

Biggest risk

Results that show persistent negative unit economics, disappointing deliveries, or increased cash burn would likely push the stock materially lower as financing risk and multiple compression are re-priced.

Invalidation

Break below $12 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Polestar's near-term upside depends on Q4/FY2025 results delivering clear margin and cash-flow improvement and management guidance for sustained unit-economics gains; a stronger-than-expected print plus constructive investor presentation could drive a re-rating toward premium EV multiples.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-04-16

Base target

$21

p=50%

Bull target

$30

p=20%

Bear target

$12

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Investor presentation / MD&A detail showing margin or cash-flow inflection
Polestar's near-term upside depends on Q4/FY2025 results delivering clear margin and cash-flow improvement and management guidance for sustained unit-economics gains; a stronger-than-expected print plus constructive investor presentation could drive a re-rating toward premium EV multiples.
ANCHOR: {"price": 21.04, "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z", "source": "rankalpha_api_adj_close"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Analyst median ~ $20.33; my base target (20.5) sits near that median and within the reported analyst range (low $15, high ~$22.95), reflecting limited near-term visibility and reliance on FY2025 result details.

BearKey bullets

Lower deliveries / demand slowdown for premium EVs
Need for dilutive financing or covenant pressure
Weak FY2025 margins or higher-than-expected cash burn

WatchKey bullets

Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results Release

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $21 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +30% / -48%

Vs latest close: Bull +30% · Base -11% · Bear -48%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $30 (p=20%)Base Target: $21 (p=50%)Bear Target: $12 (p=30%)

Commentary

Investor attention is concentrated ahead of the April 17 results, per Polestar's IR calendar and market news; sentiment is cautious with limited upside priced in given mixed analyst targets [#IR-undated] [#SERP-1]. Market commentary highlights ongoing scrutiny of EV unit economics and cash runway for growth names, which will shape reaction to Polestar's disclosures [#SERP-1].

As of 2026-04-16 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Investor presentation / MD&A detail showing margin or cash-flow inflection

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-04-16Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$20.33

Range (USD)

$15.00 - $22.95

Count

Query: Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC Class A ADR (PSNY) analyst consensus price target high low average

PSNY | Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC ADR Analyst ... - WSJ
Search result #3
Stock Price Target PSNY. High, $15.00. Median, $15.00. Low, $15.00. Average, $15.00. Current Price, $20.33. Related Links: Options · Overview · Research & ...
Extracted: $15.00, $20.33Open source
Polestar Automotive Holding A (PSNY) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #1
According to projections from 2 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Polestar Automotive Holding A is 22.500 USD, with a high estimate of ...
Extracted: $22.50Open source
PSNY | Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC ADR Analyst Estimates
Search result #2
Stock Price Targets. High, $15.00. Median, $15.00. Low, $15.00. Average, $15.00. Current Price, $20.33. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. PSNY will report 2026 ...
Extracted: $15.00, $20.33Open source
Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC: Target Price Consensus and ...
Search result #4
Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC analysts consensus, targets, ratings and recommendations | Nasdaq: PSNY | Nasdaq.
Open source
PSNY Stock Quote Price and Forecast - CNN
Search result #6
Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC Sponsored ADR Class A ... PSNY is trading near the bottom of its 52-week range and below its 200-day simple moving average.
Open source
PSNY / Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC - Depositary Receipt ...
Search result #9
The average one-year price target for Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC - Depositary Receipt (Common Stock) is $22.95. The forecasts range from a low of $15.15 ...
Extracted: $22.95, $15.15Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$30 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$21 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$12 / p=30% prob

Price $23 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 11%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +30% · Base -11% · Bear -48%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-17
Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results Release
Polestar expects to publish fourth-quarter select and full-year 2025 consolidated financial results on 2026-04-17 before market open; investors will get revenue, margin and cash-runway detail that could re-rate the stock [#IR-undated].
Prob 95.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Investor presentation / MD&A detail showing margin or cash-flow inflection
2027-04-16
Quarterly-results page and prior investor materials indicate Polestar publishes investor update presentations alongside results; if FY2025 disclosures show meaningful improvement in gross margin, improved unit economics, or a credible path to positive free cash flow, valuation could re-rate [#IR-undated].
Prob 35% • Move 40% • Priced-in 15%

Risks

Lower deliveries / demand slowdown for premium EVs
Need for dilutive financing or covenant pressure
Weak FY2025 margins or higher-than-expected cash burn

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ADNT	Auto interior/seat supplier with large OEM exposure; useful comparators for supply-chain and margin pressure dynamics.
GT	Tire and mobility product provider with global auto-cycle sensitivity; helpful for end-market demand signaling.
HOG	Consumer auto-related OEM with branded demand patterns; less direct but useful for consumer premium-product demand comparisons.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC Class A ADR (PSNY) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-04-16

AI Stock Memo: PSNY - Polestar Automotive UK - RankAlpha