AI Stock Memo: GT - Goodyear Tire Rubber - RankAlpha

GT

AI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Goodyear Tire Rubber

As of 2026-05-09/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Post-earnings reset keeps focus on whether self-help can outrun volume pressure [#8-K-2026-05-06] • 2026-05-07

Expected move: +32%

Biggest risk

The bear case is that the earnings beat was low quality because net loss widened to $249M, worldwide units fell 11.6%, Americas segment operating income fell to $37M from $155M, and management explicitly flagged weaker industry demand plus higher raw-material costs.

Invalidation

Break below $6 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The cleanest bull read-through is that Q1 was weak but not thesis-breaking: adjusted EPS and revenue appear to have come in modestly better than third-party consensus, while EMEA and Asia Pacific improved and Goodyear Forward delivered meaningful offsets to cost inflation.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-09

Base target

p=45%

Bull target

$10

p=30%

Bear target

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Liquidity and working-capital normalization need confirmation [#10-Q-2026-05-07]
Goodyear Forward plus price/mix remain the core long-duration repair story [#8-K-2026-05-06][#10-Q-2026-05-07]
The cleanest bull read-through is that Q1 was weak but not thesis-breaking: adjusted EPS and revenue appear to have come in modestly better than third-party consensus, while EMEA and Asia Pacific improved and Goodyear Forward delivered meaningful offsets to cost inflation.

BearKey bullets

Higher raw-material and other input costs, with management tying some pressure to conflict in the Middle East.
Large Q1 working-capital outflow and revolver usage increase, which make cash conversion a near-term watch item.
Rationalization and restructuring execution risk after $104M of Q1 rationalization charges.

WatchKey bullets

Post-earnings reset keeps focus on whether self-help can outrun volume pressure [#8-K-2026-05-06]

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $8 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +66% / -7%

Vs latest close: Bull +66% · Base +32% · Bear -7%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $10 (p=30%)Base Target: $8 (p=45%)Bear Target: $6 (p=25%)

Commentary

Tone is mixed but cautious. Primary company materials emphasized EMEA/APAC improvement and $107M of Goodyear Forward benefits, while trusted coverage focused on the swing to a net loss and weak demand. Secondary coverage also indicated a negative immediate stock reaction after the print, and the May 7, 2026 anchor close of $6.86 shows the market did not reward the modest headline beat. Delayed analyst revision evidence was limited in checked sources, so this remains more of a monitoring setup than a strong re-rating call.

As of 2026-05-09 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Liquidity and working-capital normalization need confirmation [#10-Q-2026-05-07]
Goodyear Forward plus price/mix remain the core long-duration repair story [#8-K-2026-05-06][#10-Q-2026-05-07]

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$10 / p=30% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$8 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$6 / p=25% prob

Price $6 as of 2026-06-02

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 7%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +66% · Base +32% · Bear -7%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

-0.20

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-07
Post-earnings reset keeps focus on whether self-help can outrun volume pressure [#8-K-2026-05-06]
Q1 2026 results showed net sales of $3.9B, adjusted EPS of -$0.39, and segment operating income of $95M. Goodyear Forward delivered $107M of benefits, but lower volume and higher inflation/other costs still drove a sharp year-over-year earnings step-down.
Prob 80.00% • Move 7.00% • Priced-in 70.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Liquidity and working-capital normalization need confirmation [#10-Q-2026-05-07]
2026-06-30
Q1 operating cash outflow was $718M, including $650M of working-capital use and $83M of rationalization payments. Quarter-end cash was $723M, unused availability was $2.975B, and Goodyear had $530M drawn on its U.S. revolver, so the next balance-sheet update matters for confidence.
Prob 55% • Move 9% • Priced-in 45%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Goodyear Forward plus price/mix remain the core long-duration repair story [#8-K-2026-05-06][#10-Q-2026-05-07]
2026-12-31
Management is still leaning on cost transformation and price/mix to offset macro weakness. EMEA and Asia Pacific improved year over year, and the company said further savings actions are needed as demand and raw-material pressure persist.
Prob 60% • Move 20% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

Higher raw-material and other input costs, with management tying some pressure to conflict in the Middle East.
Large Q1 working-capital outflow and revolver usage increase, which make cash conversion a near-term watch item.
Rationalization and restructuring execution risk after $104M of Q1 rationalization charges.
Timing uncertainty around tariff-related refunds even though the company recognized a probable recovery in Q1.
Weak consumer OE and replacement demand across key geographies, especially North America replacement and China OE.

Peers

No peer data

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-09