AI Stock Memo: PSMT - PriceSmart - RankAlpha

PSMT

Rating buyTentativeAI Memo

PriceSmart

As of 2026-04-09/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

high-coverage report lacks a dated company-specific catalyst beyond generic cadence

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q2 FY2026 SEC filings and earnings disclosure (filed 2026-04-08) • 2026-04-08

Expected move: -1%

Biggest risk

Slower consumer demand in core Latin American markets, FX headwinds, or membership churn compresses margins and revenue growth, pulling the stock below historical trading multiples.

Invalidation

Break below $120 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Continued membership growth, better traffic retention and pricing/mix improvements drive margin expansion; FY2027 results exceed consensus, supporting materially higher multiples.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-04-09

Base target

$165

p=55%

Bull target

$195

p=25%

Bear target

$120

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Near-term guidance revision or FX / Central America macro sensitivity
Membership/traffic mix and margin improvements driving FY2027 upside
Continued membership growth, better traffic retention and pricing/mix improvements drive margin expansion; FY2027 results exceed consensus, supporting materially higher multiples.

BearKey bullets

Commodity/wholesale inflation compressing gross margins
Execution risk on assortment and pricing initiatives
FX volatility in Latin America and Caribbean markets

WatchKey bullets

Q2 FY2026 SEC filings and earnings disclosure (filed 2026-04-08)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $165 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +17% / -28%

Vs latest close: Bull +17% · Base -1% · Bear -28%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $195 (p=25%)Base Target: $165 (p=55%)Bear Target: $120 (p=20%)

Commentary

Recent filings and the IR quarterly summary show modestly positive top-line momentum (revenues +9.9% in the first quarter FY2026) and management disclosure via an 8-K/10-Q that tempered guidance uncertainty [#IR-undated][#10-Q-2026-04-08]. Street analyst consensus median (~$142.8) remains below the market anchor but shows a mixed tone with a high near $160, indicating cautious optimism [#SERP-5].

As of 2026-04-09 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Continued membership growth, better traffic retention and pricing/mix improvements drive margin expansion; FY2027 results exceed consensus, supporting materially higher multiples.

Bear Case

Slower consumer demand in core Latin American markets, FX headwinds, or membership churn compresses margins and revenue growth, pulling the stock below historical trading multiples.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Near-term guidance revision or FX / Central America macro sensitivity
Membership/traffic mix and margin improvements driving FY2027 upside

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-04-09Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Below RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$142.83

Range (USD)

$98.10 - $160.00

Count

Query: PriceSmart Inc Common (PSMT) analyst consensus price target high low average

PriceSmart Inc. Analyst Estimates & Ratings - PSMT - WSJ
Search result #5
Stock Price Target PSMT. High, $160.00. Median, $135.00. Low, $134.00. Average, $143.00. Current Price, $147.52. Related Links: Options · Overview · Research & ...
Extracted: $160.00, $135.00, $134.00, $143.00, $147.52Open source
PriceSmart (PSMT) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #1
According to projections from 3 analysts, the average 12-month price target for PriceSmart is 143.00 USD, with a high estimate of 160 USD and a low estimate ...
Extracted: $143.00, $160.00Open source
PriceSmart, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #2
Analysts' Consensus ; Mean consensus. BUY ; Number of Analysts. 3 ; Last Close Price. 152.48USD ; Average target price. 143.00USD ; Spread / Average Target. -6.22%.
Extracted: $152.48, $143.00Open source
PriceSmart, Inc. Stock Price: Quote, Forecast, Splits & News (PSMT)
Search result #4
Despite trading above the analyst consensus target, PriceSmart's ... target now well below current trading levels. 37 sources. Mar 19. $142.67.
Extracted: $142.67Open source2 days ago
PriceSmart Inc. Analyst Estimates - PSMT - MarketWatch
Search result #6
N/A. Stock Price Targets. High, $160.00. Median, $135.00. Low, $134.00. Average, $143.00. Current Price, $151.36. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. PSMT will report ...
Extracted: $160.00, $135.00, $134.00, $143.00, $151.36Open source
PriceSmart, Inc. Target price 2026 - Analyst rating & recommendation
Search result #7
A rating was issued by 10 analysts: 8 Analysts recommend PriceSmart, Inc. to buy, 2 to hold and 0 to sell. Analysts don't have a crystal ball either, ...
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$195 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$165 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$120 / p=20% prob

Price $167 as of 2026-05-26

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 1%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +17% · Base -1% · Bear -28%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-08
Q2 FY2026 SEC filings and earnings disclosure (filed 2026-04-08)
PriceSmart filed an 8-K and Form 10-Q on 2026-04-08 covering the quarter ended 2026-02-28 and disclosed Q2 results via IR; market reaction and management commentary on membership metrics and guidance occurred in those filings and the accompanying release [#8-K-2026-04-08][#10-Q-2026-04-08][#IR-undated].
Prob 95.00% • Move 4.00% • Priced-in 70.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Near-term guidance revision or FX / Central America macro sensitivity
2026-07-08
Given PriceSmart's exposure to Latin American purchasing-power trends disclosed in the 10-K and 10-Q, adverse FX or consumer demand shifts could prompt guidance cuts or margin pressure in the next 90 days [#10-K-2025-10-30][#10-Q-2026-04-08].
Prob 30% • Move -8% • Priced-in 25%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Membership/traffic mix and margin improvements driving FY2027 upside
2027-04-09
Management's Q2 disclosures and IR summary show revenue growth (Q1 FY2026 revenues +9.9% to $1.38B) and emphasize member-driven sales; sustained membership growth, improved attach rate/pricing mix, and margin bridge across fiscal 2027 are the company-specific drivers for upside [#IR-undated][#10-K-2025-10-30].
Prob 55% • Move 22% • Priced-in 40%

Risks

Commodity/wholesale inflation compressing gross margins
Execution risk on assortment and pricing initiatives
FX volatility in Latin America and Caribbean markets
Membership retention or traffic deterioration

Peers

Symbol	Summary
UNFI	U.S. wholesale/food distributor with scale in grocery distribution; useful comparator for wholesale margins and channel dynamics.
TBBB	Regional food/retail operator with similar consumer staples retail dynamics in branded/private-label mix.
VLGEA	Smaller regional supermarket operator—useful as a traffic/loyalty comparator for membership-driven retail performance.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: PriceSmart Inc Common (PSMT) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-04-09