AI Stock Memo: VLGEA - Village Super Market - RankAlpha

VLGEA

Rating neutralAI Memo

Village Super Market

As of 2026-04-16/Confidence medium/Horizon 3m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

Key catalyst

Quarterly cash dividend payable April 23, 2026 • 2026-04-23

Expected move: -5%

Biggest risk

Adverse litigation rulings, greater-than-expected legal expense or sustained traffic softness could compress margins and force multiple contraction; dividend reductions would amplify downside.

Invalidation

Break below $32 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Settlement or favorable litigation outcome plus stable same-store sales and continued dividend support could re-rate the shares toward a mid-teens multiple expansion and materially higher cash returns to shareholders.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-04-16

Base target

$44

p=50%

Bull target

$53

p=25%

Bear target

$32

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly cash dividend payable April 23, 2026
Litigation developments vs.
Wakefern (counterclaims/third-party complaint)

BearKey bullets

Adverse litigation outcome or protracted trial
Dividend cut if cash flow weakens
Regional grocery traffic/margin pressures from competition or cost inflation

WatchKey bullets

ANCHOR: {"price": 41.22, "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-15T00:00:00Z", "source": "rankalpha_api_adj_close"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Analyst median target is $41.00; our base target $44.00 sits modestly above the median and slightly above the reported analyst high ($43.76) while remaining well above the reported low ($10.8), reflecting a conservative upside for payout support and litigation binary risk.

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $44 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +14% / -31%

Vs latest close: Bull +14% · Base -5% · Bear -31%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $53 (p=25%)Base Target: $44 (p=50%)Bear Target: $32 (p=25%)

Commentary

Market tone is neutral-to-cautious: analysts show a tight band around low-double-digit targets while press releases emphasize dividend continuity [#PR-2025-12-02] and filings disclose contentious litigation with Wakefern [#8-K-2026-03-25]. Investor interest appears income-driven with headline sensitivity to legal updates [#10-Q-2026-03-04].

As of 2026-04-16 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Adverse litigation rulings, greater-than-expected legal expense or sustained traffic softness could compress margins and force multiple contraction; dividend reductions would amplify downside.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly cash dividend payable April 23, 2026
Litigation developments vs. Wakefern (counterclaims/third-party complaint)

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-04-16Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$41.00

Range (USD)

$10.80 - $43.76

Count

Query: Village Super Market Inc Class A Common (VLGEA) analyst consensus price target high low average

VLGEA | Village Super Market Inc. Cl A Analyst Estimates & Ratings
Search result #1
Stock Price Target VLGEA. High, $. Median, $. Low, $. Average, $. Current Price, $43.76. Related Links: Options · Overview · Research & Ratings ... WSJ High ...
Extracted: $43.76Open source
VLGEA Stock Quote Price and Forecast - CNN
Search result #3
VLGEA is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average. ... The price of VLGEA shares has decreased $2.02 since the market ...
Extracted: $2.02Open source
VLGEA Stock Forecast 2026 - Village Super Market Price Targets ...
Search result #5
Village Super Market (VLGEA) is rated a 'Buy' with a fair value of $40–$42, showing a 16% upside and a 2.8% yield. FCF increased 27% to $10.8 million, covering ...
Extracted: $40.00, $42.00, $10.80Open source
Village Super Market (VLGEA) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Search result #6
Find the latest Village Super Market Inc (VLGEA) stock forecast, 12-month price target, predictions and analyst recommendations.
Open source
Village Super Market: VLGEA Stock Price Quote & News | Robinhood
Search result #7
Village Super Market(VLGEA) stock is priced at $41.00, giving the company a market capitalization of 575.33M. It carries a P/E multiple of 11.08 and pays a ...
Extracted: $41.00Open source
Village Super Market (Nasdaq:VLGE.A) - Stock Analysis
Search result #8
Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend on Class A and Class B Common Share, Payable on April 23, 2026 ... Price Volatility. Low High VLGE.A Average Market Volatility ...
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$53 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$44 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$32 / p=25% prob

Price $46 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 5%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +14% · Base -5% · Bear -31%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly cash dividend payable April 23, 2026
2026-04-23
Board-declared quarterly cash dividend (Class A $0.25) with payable date in late April supports near-term income return and can modestly re-rate yield-sensitive buyers [#PR-undated] [#PR-2025-12-02].
Prob 95% • Move 2% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Litigation developments vs. Wakefern (counterclaims/third-party complaint)
2026-12-31
Village disclosed Wakefern filed an Answer, Separate Defenses, Counterclaims and Third-Party Complaint on March 19, 2026; resolution path (motions schedule, discovery, settlement or trial) represents a company-specific multi-quarter catalyst that could affect liabilities, costs and commercial relationships [#8-K-2026-03-25].
Prob 60% • Move 20% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Adverse litigation outcome or protracted trial
Dividend cut if cash flow weakens
Regional grocery traffic/margin pressures from competition or cost inflation

Peers

Symbol	Summary
NGVC	Natural Grocers — similar small-cap specialty grocery retailer; comparable traffic and margin sensitivity to food retail trends.
WILC	G. Willi-Food International — regional/wholesale grocery operator with overlapping scale and supply dynamics.
HFFG	HF Foods Group — smaller food distributor/retailer peer showing similar exposure to CPG pricing and margin swings.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Village Super Market Inc Class A Common (VLGEA) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-04-16