AI Stock Memo: PRKS - United Parks Resorts - RankAlpha

PRKS

AI MemoPost-earnings T+3

United Parks Resorts

As of 2026-05-14/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Summer attendance and Q2 follow-through will test whether weather-disrupted demand truly snaps back • 2026-08-12

Expected move: -15%

Biggest risk

The bear case is that the weak print still exposed real operating fragility: attendance fell 5.0%, admission per cap slipped 0.5%, operating expenses rose 6.2% on insurance, third-party labor, consulting, and other costs, net loss widened to $34.1M, and PRKS enters its key season needing near-ideal weather and cleaner execution to recover. [#10-Q-2026-05-11]

Invalidation

Break below $28 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The post-earnings bull case is that Q1 was distorted more by weather and international softness than by a core demand break: management said weather and international declines together pressured attendance by roughly 220,000 visits and that attendance would have risen more than 1% absent those factors, while in-park per-cap spending hit a record $40.62, pass sales rose about 10% in Q1 and 12% through April 30, and Discovery Cove/group bookings were ahead of 2025. [#8-K-2026-05-11]

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-14

Base target

$34

p=45%

Bull target

$44

p=25%

Bear target

$28

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Q1 miss reset near-term expectations into peak season
Pass sales, bookings, and 2026 attraction slate offer a recovery path but need execution proof
The post-earnings bull case is that Q1 was distorted more by weather and international softness than by a core demand break: management said weather and international declines together pressured attendance by roughly 220,000 visits and that attendance would have risen more than 1% absent those factors, while in-park per-cap spending hit a record $40.62, pass sales rose about 10% in Q1 and 12% through April 30, and Discovery Cove/group bookings were ahead of 2025.

BearKey bullets

Capital returns are supportive for EPS optics but also consume liquidity; PRKS repurchased about $92.7M in Q1 and another $64.8M through May 8.
[#8-K-2026-05-11]
International visitation weakened year over year and was cited as a separate attendance drag, which raises concern that recovery depends on factors outside management control.

WatchKey bullets

Summer attendance and Q2 follow-through will test whether weather-disrupted demand truly snaps back

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $34 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +10% / -30%

Vs latest close: Bull +10% · Base -15% · Bear -30%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $44 (p=25%)Base Target: $34 (p=45%)Bear Target: $28 (p=30%)

Commentary

Primary-source coverage is strong because the May 11, 2026 8-K and 10-Q clearly document the earnings miss and management’s explanation. Market reaction was negative at first: investing coverage said shares fell 5.56% on the print, and historical price coverage showed PRKS closing at $35.15 on May 12 versus $39.22 on May 8 before earnings, with only a modest rebound to the packet’s $35.86 May 13 anchor. Analyst follow-through by T+3 was available but mixed rather than broadly constructive, so the setup still looks more like a cautious post-earnings monitoring case than a clean recovery thesis.

As of 2026-05-14 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Q1 miss reset near-term expectations into peak season
Pass sales, bookings, and 2026 attraction slate offer a recovery path but need execution proof

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$44 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$34 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$28 / p=30% prob

Price $40 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 10%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +10% · Base -15% · Bear -30%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

-0.32

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-08-12
Summer attendance and Q2 follow-through will test whether weather-disrupted demand truly snaps back
Management said weather cost about 140,000 guests and international weakness about 80,000 guests, while adjusted attendance would have grown more than 1% absent those impacts; the next demand read through peak summer and the following quarter should determine whether the weak Q1 was mostly transitory. [#8-K-2026-05-11] [#10-Q-2026-05-11]
Prob 60.00% • Move 10.00% • Priced-in 45.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Q1 miss reset near-term expectations into peak season
2026-05-11
Q1 revenue fell 3.0% to $278.3M, attendance fell 5.0%, adjusted EBITDA fell 14.1% to $58.0M, and management said results fell short mainly because of unfavorable weather and lower international visitation; investing coverage linked the print to an immediate 5.56% share drop on May 11. [#8-K-2026-05-11] [#10-Q-2026-05-11]
Prob 85% • Move -6% • Priced-in 80%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Pass sales, bookings, and 2026 attraction slate offer a recovery path but need execution proof
2027-05-14
Management reported paid pass sales up about 10% in Q1 and 12% through April 30, with Discovery Cove advanced bookings and group business ahead of 2025, alongside a broader 2026 lineup of new rides, shows, attractions, food, retail, and marketing support; this is the main bullish counterweight but still needs conversion into sustained attendance and EBITDA growth. [#8-K-2026-05-11]
Prob 55% • Move 12% • Priced-in 35%

Risks

Capital returns are supportive for EPS optics but also consume liquidity; PRKS repurchased about $92.7M in Q1 and another $64.8M through May 8. [#8-K-2026-05-11]
International visitation weakened year over year and was cited as a separate attendance drag, which raises concern that recovery depends on factors outside management control. [#8-K-2026-05-11]
Leverage is still material: as of March 31, 2026, PRKS had $1.519B of term loans, $725M of senior notes, $30M drawn on the revolver, and cash had fallen to $28.9M after capex and aggressive repurchases. [#10-Q-2026-05-11]
Operating expense growth outpaced revenue, with the 10-Q citing higher non-cash self-insurance adjustments plus higher non-recurring third-party labor and consulting costs. [#10-Q-2026-05-11]
Stifel’s May 12 downgrade added a governance overhang by focusing on concentrated shareholder control rather than purely operating performance.
Weather sensitivity remains high, and management explicitly tied the Q1 miss to poor conditions across major markets during key holiday and spring-break periods. [#8-K-2026-05-11]

Peers

Symbol	Summary
FUN	Six Flags is a direct public amusement-park peer and a cleaner operating comp for regional/theme-park attendance, pricing, and guest-spend trends than the packet’s same-sector market-cap names; PRKS itself identifies Six Flags as a principal direct competitor in its 10-K. [#10-K-2026-03-03]
DIS	Disney is a direct but much larger competitor in destination theme parks, highlighting PRKS’s tougher competitive backdrop and weaker resource base even if it is not a close valuation comp; PRKS names Disney-operated parks as a principal direct competitor in its 10-K. [#10-K-2026-03-03]

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-14