AI Stock Memo: PLAY - Dave Buster's Entertainment - RankAlpha

PLAY

Rating buyAI Memo

Dave Buster's Entertainment

As of 2026-01-11/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Asset monetization or portfolio optimization announcement • 2026-06-30

Expected move: +80%

Biggest risk

Bear case assumes a pullback in discretionary spend, weaker-than-expected traffic or unit-level productivity, and continued margin pressure from labor/food costs; absent successful asset monetization or capital returns, these outcomes would compress multiples and could leave the stock near or below the $15 bear target.

Invalidation

Break below $15 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case requires persistent improvement in same-store sales, clear margin expansion from operating leverage, successful new-unit economics, and at least one material capital-allocation action (asset monetization or buybacks) that supports a premium multiple. Under that conditional set of outcomes, investors could re-rate the shares toward the high end of published targets, consistent with the $46 bull target.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-11

Base target

$24

p=55%

Bull target

$46

p=25%

Bear target

$15

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly earnings (comps, margin guidance)
Leisure demand normalization and growth roll-out
Bull case requires persistent improvement in same-store sales, clear margin expansion from operating leverage, successful new-unit economics, and at least one material capital-allocation action (asset monetization or buybacks) that supports a premium multiple.

BearKey bullets

Delay or failure to monetize real-estate assets
Discretionary spend slowdown
Execution risk on new openings or conversions

WatchKey bullets

Asset monetization or portfolio optimization announcement

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $24 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +244% / +12%

Vs latest close: Bull +244% · Base +80% · Bear +12%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $46 (p=25%)Base Target: $24 (p=55%)Bear Target: $15 (p=20%)

Commentary

Analyst coverage is optimistic—median targets sit above the anchor while highs imply asymmetric upside [#SERP-2][#SERP-5]. Near-term sentiment is event-driven (earnings, asset actions); longer-term views hinge on durable leisure demand and capital allocation [#SERP-4].

As of 2026-01-11 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly earnings (comps, margin guidance)
Leisure demand normalization and growth roll-out

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-11Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$23.00

Range (USD)

$16.00 - $48.30

Count

Query: Dave & Buster's Entertainment Inc Common (PLAY) analyst consensus price target high low average

Dave & Buster's Entertainment (PLAY) Stock Forecast & ...
Search result #1
According to projections from 8 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Dave & Buster's Entertainment is 26.375, with a high estimate of 46 and a low ...
Open source
Dave & Busters Entertainment (PLAY) Stock Forecast ...
Search result #2
The average price target is $23.20 with a high forecast of $30.00 and a low forecast of $16.00. The average price target represents a 41.12% change from the ...
Extracted: $23.20, $30.00, $16.00Open source
Dave & Buster's Entertainment (PLAY) Stock Forecast and ...
Search result #3
According to the 8 analysts' twelve-month price targets for Dave & Buster's Entertainment, the average price target is $22.60. The highest price target for ...
Extracted: $22.60Open source
PLAY Stock Forecast 2026 - Dave & Buster's Price Targets ...
Search result #4
Based on our analysis of 17 Wall Street analysts, PLAY has a neutral consensus with a median price target of $25.50 (ranging from $16.00 to $46.00). The overall ...
Extracted: $25.50, $16.00, $46.00Open source
Consensus Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc.
Search result #5
Last Close Price. 16.21USD. Average target price. 26.50USD. Spread / Average Target. +63.48%. High Price Target. 46.00USD. Spread / Highest target. +183.78%.
Extracted: $16.21, $26.50, $46.00Open source
Dave & Buster's (PLAY) Price Targets
Search result #6
The forecasts range from a low of $19.00 to a high of $46.00. The average price target represents an increase of 68.51% from the last closing price of $17.21.
Extracted: $19.00, $46.00, $17.21Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$46 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$24 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$15 / p=20% prob

Price $13 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 12%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +244% · Base +80% · Bear +12%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-30
Asset monetization or portfolio optimization announcement
A strategic real-estate sale, leaseback, or refranchising could materially de-lever the balance sheet and re-rate the stock; timing is uncertain so assumed window end used [assumption: company may pursue monetization in H1 2026] [#SERP-5].
Prob 30.00% • Move 25.00% • Priced-in 20.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly earnings (comps, margin guidance)
2026-04-11
Next quarterly release could show margin expansion or weakness versus consensus; analysts' 12-month targets imply upside if same-store sales and F&B margins improve [#SERP-2][#SERP-1].
Prob 60% • Move 18% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Leisure demand normalization and growth roll-out
2027-01-11
Sustained consumer reopening, successful new-unit economics, and higher-margin ancillary revenue could drive multi-quarter upside vs. consensus targets [#SERP-4][#SERP-3].
Prob 50% • Move 65% • Priced-in 10%

Risks

Delay or failure to monetize real-estate assets
Discretionary spend slowdown
Execution risk on new openings or conversions

Peers

Symbol	Summary
CNK	Cinemark — similar exposure to discretionary entertainment and box-office cycles; useful revenue-sensitivity comparison.
AMC	AMC Entertainment — broader theatrical/discretionary demand exposure; highlights sensitivity to consumer leisure trends.
EAT	Brinker International — casual dining peer for food-and-beverage operating leverage and cost pressures.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Dave & Buster's Entertainment Inc Common (PLAY) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-11