PFS

Rating buyAI Memo

Provident Financial Services

As of 2026-01-28/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Analyst consensus re-rate / 12-month target refresh • 2026-04-28

Base target: $22 / p=60% prob

Biggest risk

Adverse deposit outflows or unexpected credit deterioration would pressure EPS and warrant a multiple contraction, pushing the stock below current levels; a prolonged margin squeeze could drive valuation toward the low-to-bear target range.

Invalidation

Break below $19 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Provident could re-rate toward the top of the analyst range if NIMs remain resilient, loan growth accelerates modestly, and deposit costs stabilize — supporting upside to the $24 analyst high. Operational discipline and stable credit trends would validate a premium to the current market price.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-28

Base target

$22

p=60%

Bull target

$24

p=20%

Bear target

$19

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Next quarterly earnings (estimated)
Sustained NIM expansion / credit cycle tailwind
Provident could re-rate toward the top of the analyst range if NIMs remain resilient, loan growth accelerates modestly, and deposit costs stabilize — supporting upside to the $24 analyst high.

BearKey bullets

Deposit outflows or rising funding costs
Localized credit deterioration in commercial/CRE portfolios
Net interest margin compression from competitive repricing or rate shifts

WatchKey bullets

Analyst consensus re-rate / 12-month target refresh

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $22 (p=60%)

Target spread vs base: +9% / -16%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $24 (p=20%)Base Target: $22 (p=60%)Bear Target: $19 (p=20%)

Commentary

Consensus is mildly positive: the analyst median (~$22) sits just above the anchor, implying modest upside to the $24 high but limited conviction across coverage [#SERP-4]. Coverage is light, so earnings or funding surprises can quickly move estimates and share price [#SERP-2]. Near-term tone is cautious ahead of results; sustained NIM strength and stable credit trends are required to realize the bullish case [#SERP-1].

As of 2026-01-28 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Next quarterly earnings (estimated)
Sustained NIM expansion / credit cycle tailwind

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-28Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$22.00

Range (USD)

$19.86 - $24.00

Count

Query: Provident Financial Services Inc Common (PFS) analyst consensus price target high low average

Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS) Stock Price, News, Quote ...
Search result #1
Provident Financial Services Inc has an Investment Rating of HOLD; a target price of $21.000000; an Industry Subrating of High; a Management Subrating of ...
Extracted: $21.00Open source
Provident (PFS) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #2
According to projections from 4 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Provident is 23.125, with a high estimate of 24 and a low estimate of 22. What ...
Open source
Provident Financial (PFS) Price Targets - Zacks Investment Research
Search result #3
The forecasts range from a low of $22.00 to a high of $24.00. The average price target represents an increase of 8.54% from the last closing price of $21.31.
Extracted: $22.00, $24.00, $21.31Open source
Provident Financial Services Inc. Analyst Estimates - MarketWatch
Search result #4
Stock Price Targets. High, $24.00. Median, $23.25. Low, $22.00. Average, $23.13. Current Price, $20.15. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. PFS will report 2025 earnings ...
Extracted: $24.00, $23.25, $22.00, $23.13, $20.15Open source
Consensus Provident Financial Services, Inc. - MarketScreener
Search result #5
Analysts' Consensus ; Mean consensus. BUY ; Number of Analysts. 4 ; Last Close Price. 19.86USD ; Average target price. 23.12USD ; Spread / Average Target. +16.44%.
Extracted: $19.86, $23.12Open source
PFS | Provident Financial Services Inc. Analyst Estimates & Ratings
Search result #6
Stock Price Target PFS. High, $24.00. Median, $23.25. Low, $22.00. Average, $23.13. Current Price, $20.29. Related Links: Options · Overview · Research & ...
Extracted: $24.00, $23.25, $22.00, $23.13, $20.29Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$24 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$22 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$19 / p=20% prob

Analysis 2026-01-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-28
Analyst consensus re-rate / 12-month target refresh
Annual analyst coverage refresh and consensus target updates (assumed window end for planning) — may reprice shares if guidance or macro outlook shifts [#SERP-2], assumption: window end selected for planning.
Prob 60.00% • Move 8.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Next quarterly earnings (estimated)
2026-04-28
Estimated upcoming quarterly results could drive short-term re-rating; date estimated due to lack of official disclosure, assumed quarter-end release window [#SERP-4].
Prob 70% • Move 4% • Priced-in 50%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Sustained NIM expansion / credit cycle tailwind
2027-01-28
If net interest margin and loan growth remain favorable through the next 12 months, longer-term earnings uplift could materialize; selection of 12-month horizon as conservative long-term estimate.
Prob 50% • Move 20% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Deposit outflows or rising funding costs
Localized credit deterioration in commercial/CRE portfolios
Net interest margin compression from competitive repricing or rate shifts
Regulatory or capital/dividend policy changes

Peers

Symbol	Summary
CFG	Regional bank with similar retail/commercial footprint in the Northeast; useful comparator for loan mix and deposit behavior.
FITB	Larger regional bank whose performance can indicate regional funding-cost trends and NIM direction.
ZION	Comparable regional franchise with similar sensitivity to local commercial real estate and loan demand cycles.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Provident Financial Services Inc Common (PFS) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-28

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Symbol

Summary

CFG

Regional bank with similar retail/commercial footprint in the Northeast; useful comparator for loan mix and deposit behavior.

FITB

Larger regional bank whose performance can indicate regional funding-cost trends and NIM direction.

ZION

Comparable regional franchise with similar sensitivity to local commercial real estate and loan demand cycles.