AI Stock Memo: PATK - Patrick Industries - RankAlpha

PATK

Rating sellAI Memo

Patrick Industries

As of 2026-02-08/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

sell

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Next quarterly earnings (company release) • 2026-05-09

Expected move: +26%

Biggest risk

Bear case: prolonged end-market weakness (RV/housing), commodity-driven margin pressure, or integration failures lead to downward revisions toward the analyst low.

Invalidation

Break below $95 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case: margin stabilization, steady OEM order growth, and accretive M&A drive multiple expansion toward top analyst targets; improved pricing and market share support realized upside.

Research note

Recommendation

sell

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-02-08

Base target

$117

p=55%

Bull target

$150

p=20%

Bear target

$95

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Next quarterly earnings (company release)
Analyst consensus update / price-target revisions
Macro/cyclical recovery in OEM order books

BearKey bullets

Adverse analyst revisions and downgraded consensus targets
Prolonged softening in RV or building-products demand
Raw material or freight cost spikes compress margins

WatchKey bullets

ANCHOR: {"price": 140.85, "timestamp_utc": "2026-02-06T00:00:00Z", "source": "rankalpha_api_adj_close"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Targets are set using the authoritative anchor and analyst consensus as reference: base is aligned to the reported analyst median (117.07), bull matches the analyst high (150.00) and bear matches the analyst low (95.00).

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

sell

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $117 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +61% / +2%

Vs latest close: Bull +61% · Base +26% · Bear +2%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $150 (p=20%)Base Target: $117 (p=55%)Bear Target: $95 (p=25%)

Commentary

Market tone is mixed: recent sources show analyst targets clustered below the current anchor, producing cautious sentiment. The Feb 5 quarter produced an earnings beat but commentary flagged margin pressure, leaving the market split between near-term outperformance and mid-cycle reversion.

As of 2026-02-08 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bull case: margin stabilization, steady OEM order growth, and accretive M&A drive multiple expansion toward top analyst targets; improved pricing and market share support realized upside.

Bear Case

Bear case: prolonged end-market weakness (RV/housing), commodity-driven margin pressure, or integration failures lead to downward revisions toward the analyst low.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Next quarterly earnings (company release)
Analyst consensus update / price-target revisions
Macro/cyclical recovery in OEM order books

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-08Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$117.07

Range (USD)

$95.00 - $150.00

Count

Query: Patrick Industries Inc Common (PATK) analyst consensus price target high low average

Patrick (PATK) Stock Forecast & Price Target - Investing.com
Search result #1
According to projections from 10 analysts, the average 12-month price target for Patrick is 111.9, with a high estimate of 126 and a low estimate of 95.
Open source
Patrick Industries, Inc. (PATK) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Search result #2
Patrick Industries (PATK) Beats Q4 Earnings and Revenue Estimates. Zacks • 2d ... Analyst Insights: PATK. 更多內容. Analyst Price Targets. 95.00 Low. 133.00 ...
Open source
Patrick Industries (PATK) Price Targets - Zacks Investment Research
Search result #3
The forecasts range from a low of $95.00 to a high of $140.00. The average price target represents a decline of 12.49% from the last closing price of $134.71.
Extracted: $95.00, $140.00, $134.71Open source
Patrick Industries, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts ...
Search result #4
Spread / Average Target. -6.16%. High Price Target. 140.00USD. Spread / Highest target. +10.96%. Low Price Target. 95.00USD. Spread / Lowest Target. -24.70% ...
Extracted: $140.00, $95.00Open source
Patrick Industries Analyst Ratings and Price Targets | NASDAQ:PATK
Search result #5
Patrick Industries Inc has a consensus price target of $107.33 based on the ratings of 12 analysts. The high is $150 issued by Keybanc on October 23, 2024.
Extracted: $107.33, $150.00Open source
PATK Price: Quote, Forecast, Charts & News - Perplexity
Search result #6
The stock appears overvalued at $119.14, trading above the consensus fair value of $110.70 and the analyst consensus price target of $106.33, which represents a ...
Extracted: $119.14, $110.70, $106.33Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$150 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$117 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$95 / p=25% prob

Price $93 as of 2026-05-28

Nearest Scenario: Bear (∆ 2%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +61% · Base +26% · Bear +2%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Next quarterly earnings (company release)
2026-05-09
Upcoming quarterly report and management commentary could reprice near-term expectations; coverage highlights sensitivity to earnings and estimates.
Prob 65% • Move 8% • Priced-in 50%
Analyst consensus update / price-target revisions
2026-05-09
Periodic consensus updates (median/low/high) have historically shifted targets and near-term flows for the stock.
Prob 40% • Move 6% • Priced-in 40%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Macro/cyclical recovery in OEM order books
2027-02-08
Multi-quarter improvement (or deterioration) in RV and housing OEM demand would materially change Patrick's revenue visibility and end-market outlook.
Prob 55% • Move 25% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Adverse analyst revisions and downgraded consensus targets
Prolonged softening in RV or building-products demand
Raw material or freight cost spikes compress margins

Peers

Symbol	Summary
THO	Thor Industries (RV OEM) — OEM demand cycles drive aftermarket/component orders and volumes for suppliers like Patrick.
KBH	KB Home (homebuilder) — housing-market trends that influence building-products demand across the supply chain.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Patrick Industries Inc Common (PATK) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-08