OSPN

AI Memo

OneSpan

As of 2026-05-29/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q1 2026 print reinforced the recurring-revenue mix • 2026-04-30

Expected move: +9%

Biggest risk

Bear case is that momentum is not yet translating cleanly into margins: cybersecurity operating income declined year over year, Adjusted EBITDA fell to $21.0 million from $23.0 million, and NRR eased from 107% to 105% as expansion slowed and some contracts contracted. Thin coverage makes the re-rating fragile.

Invalidation

Break below $12 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case centers on the recurring mix: ARR reached $192.1 million, NRR stayed above 100% at 105%, and the Build38 acquisition extends mobile-security capabilities that may support cross-sell and higher-quality revenue over time. The new buyback also helps per-share optics if execution holds.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-29

Base target

$16

p=55%

Bull target

$18

p=20%

Bear target

$12

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Build38 can broaden mobile-security cross-sell over time
Bull case centers on the recurring mix: ARR reached $192.1 million, NRR stayed above 100% at 105%, and the Build38 acquisition extends mobile-security capabilities that may support cross-sell and higher-quality revenue over time.
The new buyback also helps per-share optics if execution holds.

BearKey bullets

Adjusted EBITDA declined to $21.0 million from $23.0 million because higher cost of goods sold, sales and marketing, and R&D outweighed revenue mix improvements.
Cybersecurity operating income fell 14% year over year as higher sales and marketing spend and R&D investment, plus incremental acquisition headcount, pressured margins.
Low coverage and no verified post-print analyst revision or price-reaction data limit confidence in the near-term rerating case.

WatchKey bullets

Q1 2026 print reinforced the recurring-revenue mix

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $16 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +26% / -19%

Vs latest close: Bull +26% · Base +9% · Bear -19%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $18 (p=20%)Base Target: $16 (p=55%)Bear Target: $12 (p=25%)

Commentary

Primary-source evidence is constructive but narrow: recurring ARR growth and the new repurchase authorization support the upside case, but profitability softened, NRR eased, and the packet does not verify a post-print price reaction or any analyst estimate changes. With low coverage, this stays a monitoring-positive setup rather than a high-conviction rerating call.

As of 2026-05-29 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Build38 can broaden mobile-security cross-sell over time

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$18 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$16 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$12 / p=25% prob

Price $14 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 9%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +26% · Base +9% · Bear -19%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-30
Q1 2026 print reinforced the recurring-revenue mix
The Q1 2026 10-Q showed total revenue of $65.9 million, ARR of $192.1 million (+14% y/y), NRR of 105%, and Adjusted EBITDA of $21.0 million, which supports the recurring-business thesis even as profitability softened [#10-Q-2026-04-30].
Prob 85.00% • Move 4.50% • Priced-in 75.00%
EVENT2026-05-07
New $50 million repurchase authorization adds per-share support
On May 7, 2026, the board terminated the prior program and authorized repurchases of up to $50 million through May 7, 2028, giving management another capital-return lever if execution remains steady [#8-K-2026-05-11].
Prob 80.00% • Move 2.50% • Priced-in 70.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Build38 can broaden mobile-security cross-sell over time
2026-09-30
The 10-Q says Build38, acquired on February 27, 2026, adds next-generation mobile application protection and SDK-based security to extend App Shielding, which could improve product depth and cross-sell optionality over the next several quarters [#10-Q-2026-04-30].
Prob 55% • Move 4% • Priced-in 35%

Risks

Adjusted EBITDA declined to $21.0 million from $23.0 million because higher cost of goods sold, sales and marketing, and R&D outweighed revenue mix improvements.
Cybersecurity operating income fell 14% year over year as higher sales and marketing spend and R&D investment, plus incremental acquisition headcount, pressured margins.
Low coverage and no verified post-print analyst revision or price-reaction data limit confidence in the near-term rerating case.
NRR slipped to 105% from 107% because expansion contracts slowed and some contracts contracted, which suggests the upsell engine is not accelerating.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
APPN	Closest public workflow-automation / enterprise-software benchmark in the peer set; larger and more platform-heavy than OneSpan, but useful for recurring-revenue multiple context.
DCBO	Smaller SaaS peer with a subscription-heavy mix and a similar market-cap band; useful small-cap software comp even though it is less security-focused.
CRNC	Same-sector small-cap software reference, but the operating model is more conversational AI / automotive than digital agreements and mobile security, so the similarity is limited.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-05-29

AI Stock Memo: OSPN - OneSpan - RankAlpha