OKE

Rating buyAI Memo

ONEOK

As of 2026-01-24/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-01-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

buy

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q4 & year-end 2025 earnings release and call • 2026-02-23

Expected move: -2%

Biggest risk

Bear case: weaker commodity demand, major throughput/contract losses or regulatory setbacks that compress multiple and pressure the dividend, driving price toward the analyst low.

Invalidation

Break below $72 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Bull case: sustained recovery in gas/NGL prices, steady contract renewals and stronger-than-expected fee-based EBITDA that push valuation toward the analyst high; continued dividend increases support total return.

Research note

Recommendation

buy

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-01-24

Base target

$82

p=55%

Bull target

$110

p=25%

Bear target

$72

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Quarterly dividend payable (declared)
Regulatory / outage / throughput disruption risk
Natural-gas demand / pipeline throughput recovery and organic growth

BearKey bullets

Dividend pressure from cashflow shortfalls
Major throughput/contract losses or project delays
Regulatory rulings or protracted outages

WatchKey bullets

Q4 & year-end 2025 earnings release and call

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

buy

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $82 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +31% / -14%

Vs latest close: Bull +31% · Base -2% · Bear -14%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $110 (p=25%)Base Target: $82 (p=55%)Bear Target: $72 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market tone is cautiously constructive: dividend increase and forthcoming Q4 release keep attention on yield and guidance [#ONEOK-PR-2026-01-21]. Recent analyst coverage shows a modest upside consensus with median targets near $82 and a wide high/low range, reflecting mixed views on commodity-driven volumes [#SERP-3]. Short-term news flow (earnings, payouts) should dominate sentiment into late Feb 2026 [#GLOBE-2026-01-20].

As of 2026-01-24 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Bear case: weaker commodity demand, major throughput/contract losses or regulatory setbacks that compress multiple and pressure the dividend, driving price toward the analyst low.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Quarterly dividend payable (declared)
Regulatory / outage / throughput disruption risk
Natural-gas demand / pipeline throughput recovery and organic growth

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-01-24Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$82.00

Range (USD)

$72.00 - $114.00

Count

Query: ONEOK Inc Common (OKE) analyst consensus price target high low average

ONEOK (OKE) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026 - MarketBeat
Search result #1
The highest price target for OKE is $110.00, while the lowest price target for OKE is $72.00. The average price target represents a forecasted upside of 13.51% ...
Extracted: $110.00, $72.00Open source
What is the current Price Target and Forecast for ONEOK (OKE)
Search result #2
The forecasts range from a low of $72.00 to a high of $114.00. The average price target represents an increase of 11.51% from the last closing price of $78.56.
Extracted: $72.00, $114.00, $78.56Open source
ONEOK Inc. Analyst Estimates - OKE - MarketWatch
Search result #3
Stock Price Targets. High, $108.00. Median, $82.00. Low, $72.00. Average, $87.47. Current Price, $78.56. Yearly Numbers. Estimates. OKE will report 2025 ...
Extracted: $108.00, $82.00, $72.00, $87.47, $78.56Open source
Oneok, Inc.: Target Price Consensus and Analysts Recommendations
Search result #4
Mean consensus. OUTPERFORM ; Number of Analysts. 21 ; Last Close Price. 74.06USD ; Average target price. 88.20USD ; Spread / Average Target. +19.09%.
Extracted: $74.06, $88.20Open source
OKE Analyst Ratings for Oneok Stock - Barchart.com
Search result #5
... Analyst Target Prices. HIGH TARGET. MEAN TARGET. LOW TARGET. 52 WK High. 52 WK Low. Average Analyst Ratings. 3 Mths Ago. Moderate Buy. 4.21. Based on 19 ...
Open source
OKE - ONEOK, Inc. (NYSE) - Share Price and News - Fintel
Search result #6
Price Target. The average one-year price target for ONEOK, Inc. is $90.42. The forecasts range from a low of $72.72 to a high of ...
Extracted: $90.42, $72.72Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$110 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$82 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$72 / p=20% prob

Price $84 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 2%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +31% · Base -2% · Bear -14%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-02-23
Q4 & year-end 2025 earnings release and call
ONEOK will release Q4 and year-end 2025 results on 2026-02-23 after market, with a conference call 2026-02-24; results and guidance (volumes, fee-based EBITDA, capex guidance) can move the stock materially on surprise beats/misses [#GLOBE-2026-01-20].
Prob 95.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Quarterly dividend payable (declared)
2026-02-13
ONEOK declared a $1.07 quarterly dividend (payable 2026-02-13; record 2026-02-02); declared payouts are high-probability, modest near-term price effect but important to income investors and yield story [#ONEOK-PR-2026-01-21].
Prob 99% • Move 2% • Priced-in 95%
Regulatory / outage / throughput disruption risk
2026-04-24
Operational incidents, state/federal rulings or lower-than-expected contracted volumes can trigger outsized downside; these are lower-probability but high-impact events for a midstream operator.
Prob 25% • Move 15% • Priced-in 10%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Natural-gas demand / pipeline throughput recovery and organic growth
2027-01-24
Sustained strength in gas/NGL prices, higher industrial demand and execution of projects could re-rate ONEOK over 12+ months; management guidance and long-cycle EBITDA growth are key [#PR-2025-02-24].
Prob 45% • Move 20% • Priced-in 30%

Risks

Dividend pressure from cashflow shortfalls
Major throughput/contract losses or project delays
Regulatory rulings or protracted outages
Sustained weakness in natural gas and NGL prices

Peers

Symbol	Summary
KMI	Kinder Morgan — large US pipeline operator with overlapping fee-based midstream assets.
WMB	The Williams Companies — natural gas-focused infrastructure and interstate pipelines; similar volume sensitivity.
ET	Energy Transfer — diversified midstream footprint and fee/incentive structures; comparable dividend-income appeal.
ENB	Enbridge — North American pipeline operator with stable cashflows and dividend focus, useful global comparator.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: ONEOK Inc Common (OKE) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-01-24

AI Stock Memo: OKE - ONEOK - RankAlpha