ODD

AI Memo

ODDITY Tech

As of 2026-08-11/Confidence low

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-08-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

low

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q2 2026 results and outlook • 2026-09-09

Base target: $11 / p=50% prob

Biggest risk

Q1 revenue fell 26%, Adjusted EBITDA was negative $7.0 million, free cash flow was negative $21.1 million, and management warned that lost first orders would weigh on repeat business. CFO open-market sales add a secondary sentiment concern but are not operating evidence. [#IR-2026-06-02] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-05]

Invalidation

Break below $9 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

CPA normalization, sequential recovery, positive full-year Adjusted EBITDA, METHODIQ progress, and $667.4 million of cash, cash equivalents, and investments could support a recovery. [#IR-2026-06-02]

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

low

As of

2026-08-11

Base target

$11

p=50%

Bull target

$15

p=20%

Bear target

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

IL MAKIAGE CPA remediation
Normalization and new-brand scaling
CPA normalization, sequential recovery, positive full-year Adjusted EBITDA, METHODIQ progress, and $667.4 million of cash, cash equivalents, and investments could support a recovery.

BearKey bullets

Customer-acquisition costs may remain elevated, impairing revenue, repeat purchases, and marketing efficiency.
[#IR-2026-06-02]
Gross margin fell to 69.7% from 74.9% because of product and brand mix, lower average order value, and remediation activity.

WatchKey bullets

Q2 2026 results and outlook

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

low

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $11 (p=50%)

Target spread vs base: +35% / -23%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $15 (p=20%)Base Target: $11 (p=50%)Bear Target: $9 (p=30%)

Commentary

Recent coverage is strongly negative after the Q1 reset and guidance reduction. Social, options, short-interest, employee, and analyst-revision data are unavailable, so sentiment confidence is low. The September 9 Q2 report is the dominant near-term sentiment checkpoint. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-22]

As of 2026-08-11 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

CPA normalization, sequential recovery, positive full-year Adjusted EBITDA, METHODIQ progress, and $667.4 million of cash, cash equivalents, and investments could support a recovery. [#IR-2026-06-02]

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

IL MAKIAGE CPA remediation
Normalization and new-brand scaling

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$15 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$11 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$9 / p=30% prob

Analysis 2026-08-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

-0.70

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-09-09
Q2 2026 results and outlook
ODDITY is scheduled to report Q2 results on September 9. The prior outlook called for Q2 revenue down 25%–30% year over year and Adjusted EBITDA of $8–10 million, making recovery progress the key near-term test. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-22] [#IR-2026-06-02]
Prob 90.00% • Move -10.00% • Priced-in 75.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

IL MAKIAGE CPA remediation
2026-09-09
Management reported an estimated 28% sequential decline in IL MAKIAGE CPA from April to May, but the H1-through-May CPA index remained 83% above the prior-year period, leaving durability unproven. [#IR-2026-06-02]
Prob 45% • Move 18% • Priced-in 55%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Normalization and new-brand scaling
2027-06-30
A successful CPA recovery could support positive full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA, while METHODIQ and ODDITY Labs offer longer-term growth options. Evidence remains limited and execution-dependent. [#IR-2026-06-02]
Prob 30% • Move 35% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Customer-acquisition costs may remain elevated, impairing revenue, repeat purchases, and marketing efficiency. [#IR-2026-06-02]
Gross margin fell to 69.7% from 74.9% because of product and brand mix, lower average order value, and remediation activity. [#IR-2026-06-02]
Q1 operating cash flow and free cash flow were negative despite substantial liquidity; continued losses or buybacks could reduce financial flexibility. [#IR-2026-06-02]
Q2 revenue is expected to decline 25%–30% year over year, and the positive full-year Adjusted EBITDA outlook depends on recovery execution. [#IR-2026-06-02]
Repeated CFO open-market sales may weigh on sentiment, although Form 4 activity does not establish an operating trend. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-05]

Peers

Symbol	Summary
HNST	Same-sector candidate with similar small-cap consumer exposure; no validated operating or valuation comparison was available.
NATR	Same-sector candidate and loose consumer reference; no direct comparison of acquisition economics or growth was validated.
USNA	Same-sector candidate; useful only as a broad reference because no validated business or valuation comparison was available.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Analysis date: 2026-08-11

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Symbol

Summary

HNST

Same-sector candidate with similar small-cap consumer exposure; no validated operating or valuation comparison was available.

NATR

Same-sector candidate and loose consumer reference; no direct comparison of acquisition economics or growth was validated.

USNA

Same-sector candidate; useful only as a broad reference because no validated business or valuation comparison was available.