OABI

Rating neutralTentativeAI Memo

OmniAb

As of 2026-04-15/Confidence medium/Horizon 6‑12m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Report quality notice

peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators; small-cap biotech peer set is too weak or includes unrelated comparators for a standard-conviction report

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

6‑12m

Key catalyst

H2 2026 partner milestones could refresh the revenue narrative • 2026-09-30

Expected move: -48%

Biggest risk

The bear case is that OmniAb remains dependent on partner-controlled development events, posted lower 2025 revenue, and guided to another year of material cash burn; if partner timelines slip or monetization from newer offerings stays modest, the stock can remain trapped in a low-conviction monitoring range with financing risk creeping higher [#8-K-2026-03-04].

Invalidation

Break below $1 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The bull case is that OmniAb’s 107 active partners, 407 active programs and growing set of later-stage partnered assets can gradually convert a low-revenue platform story into a milestone-and-royalty story, while OmniUltra and xPloration widen platform relevance and help sustain partner additions [#8-K-2026-03-04].

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-04-15

Base target

p=50%

Bull target

p=25%

Bear target

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

H1 2026 partner readouts are the nearest sentiment test
Platform launches need to convert into durable partner and program growth
The bull case is that OmniAb’s 107 active partners, 407 active programs and growing set of later-stage partnered assets can gradually convert a low-revenue platform story into a milestone-and-royalty story, while OmniUltra and xPloration widen platform relevance and help sustain partner additions [#8-K-2026-03-04].

BearKey bullets

2026 guidance still implies meaningful cash burn and a lower year-end cash balance.
Competition in antibody discovery and screening remains intense across transgenic platforms and related discovery technologies [#10-K-2026-03-04].
Partner-controlled clinical timelines and outcomes drive much of the equity story.

WatchKey bullets

H2 2026 partner milestones could refresh the revenue narrative

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

6‑12m

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $1 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: -11% / -74%

Vs latest close: Bull -11% · Base -48% · Bear -74%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $2 (p=25%)Base Target: $1 (p=50%)Bear Target: $1 (p=25%)

Commentary

Monitoring view. Primary-source context is solid, and the peer set is now anchored more tightly to OmniAb’s own disclosed operating competitors rather than broad adjacent tools names, but forward visibility is still limited because OmniAb’s upside depends heavily on external partner milestones and on whether newer platform offerings translate into durable monetization. The deterministic prior remains neutral with low catalyst density, so this stays a cautious watchlist thesis rather than a high-conviction directional setup.

As of 2026-04-15 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

H1 2026 partner readouts are the nearest sentiment test
Platform launches need to convert into durable partner and program growth

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$2 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$1 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$1 / p=25% prob

Price $3 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 11%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull -11% · Base -48% · Bear -74%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-09-30
H2 2026 partner milestones could refresh the revenue narrative
OmniAb’s March 4, 2026 press release pointed to H2 2026 topline data for IMVT-1402 in difficult-to-treat rheumatoid arthritis and cutaneous lupus erythematosus, plus H2 2026 Phase 2a celiac disease data for TEV-'408. These are meaningful external checkpoints for milestone visibility, but they are still partner-controlled and several steps removed from OmniAb’s own income statement [#8-K-2026-03-04].
Prob 40.00% • Move 22.00% • Priced-in 30.00%
EVENT2026-12-31
2026 cash trajectory is a real overhang despite revenue guidance
OmniAb reported $54.0 million of cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at December 31, 2025, while guiding 2026 revenue to $25 million-$30 million, GAAP costs and operating expenses to $80 million-$85 million, cash costs and operating expenses to $50 million-$55 million, and year-end cash to $30 million-$35 million. If partner inflows slip or spending runs high, financing risk could move back into focus [#8-K-2026-03-04].
Prob 55.00% • Move 20.00% • Priced-in 45.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

H1 2026 partner readouts are the nearest sentiment test
2026-06-30
Management highlighted H1 2026 topline data expectations for Immunovant’s two Phase 3 batoclimab thyroid eye disease studies and Teva’s Phase 1b vitiligo trial for TEV-'408. Positive partner data would help validate OmniAb’s royalty-and-milestone optionality, but timing and outcomes remain outside OmniAb’s control [#8-K-2026-03-04].
Prob 45% • Move 18% • Priced-in 35%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Platform launches need to convert into durable partner and program growth
2026-12-31
OmniAb ended 2025 with 107 active partners, 407 active programs and 32 OmniAb-derived programs in clinical development or being commercialized. Management also highlighted OmniUltra and continuing xPloration interest, but the long thesis still depends on those newer offerings translating into partner additions, program growth, milestones and eventually recurring royalties rather than remaining promising platform features [#8-K-2026-03-04][#10-K-2026-03-04].
Prob 35% • Move 21% • Priced-in 28%

Risks

2026 guidance still implies meaningful cash burn and a lower year-end cash balance.
Competition in antibody discovery and screening remains intense across transgenic platforms and related discovery technologies [#10-K-2026-03-04].
Partner-controlled clinical timelines and outcomes drive much of the equity story.
Revenue mix is uneven and can swing with milestone timing, license activity and services demand.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ABCL	AbCellera is the clearest public operating comparator because OmniAb names it as technical competition in both genetically engineered rodent discovery and single-cell screening, making it relevant for platform adoption, partner acquisition and discovery-tool differentiation [#10-K-2026-03-04].
TWST	Twist Bioscience is also named by OmniAb among companies providing similar technologies in genetically engineered rodent discovery. It is not a royalty-platform analog, but it is still a relevant public comparator for partner-facing discovery workflow competition and pricing power [#10-K-2026-03-04].

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-04-15

AI Stock Memo: OABI - OmniAb - RankAlpha