TWST

Rating neutralAI MemoPost-earnings T+1

Twist Bioscience

As of 2026-05-04/Post-earnings T+1/Confidence medium

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

May 21 investor day could tighten the H2 growth and margin narrative • 2026-05-21

Expected move: -19%

Biggest risk

The near-term bear read is that stronger revenue did not translate into cleaner earnings quality: GAAP loss widened to $44.0M, cash fell to about $172M from about $198M at December 31, 2025, and the securities-settlement charge adds another overhang. By May 4, 2026, reliable post-print analyst target revisions were not yet available, so there is no confirmed Street re-underwrite to offset that caution.

Invalidation

Break below $45 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The cleanest post-print positive is operational: 2Q26 revenue beat internal guidance, both DSPS and NGS grew year over year and sequentially, gross margin stayed above 50%, and management raised full-year revenue guidance while reiterating 4Q26 adjusted EBITDA breakeven [#8-K-2026-05-04].

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-04

Base target

$54

p=45%

Bull target

$66

p=25%

Bear target

$45

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Post-earnings digestion after revenue beat but EPS/litigation noise
Execution toward Q4 FY26 adjusted EBITDA breakeven remains the core rerating hook
The cleanest post-print positive is operational: 2Q26 revenue beat internal guidance, both DSPS and NGS grew year over year and sequentially, gross margin stayed above 50%, and management raised full-year revenue guidance while reiterating 4Q26 adjusted EBITDA breakeven [#8-K-2026-05-04].

BearKey bullets

Competition is intense across synthetic biology, gene synthesis, and NGS sample-prep markets, including providers such as GenScript, IDT/Danaher, Thermo Fisher, and Illumina; stronger incumbents can pressure pricing, product breadth, and turnaround times [#10-K-2025-11-17].
GAAP loss widened in 2Q26 and cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments declined to about $172M at March 31, 2026, leaving limited room for execution misses if the breakeven timeline slips [#8-K-2026-05-04].
The securities class-action settlement remains an overhang: Twist disclosed an approximately $17.1M settlement in principle and booked $7.2M of net settlement costs in the quarter [#8-K-2026-05-04].

WatchKey bullets

May 21 investor day could tighten the H2 growth and margin narrative

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+1

Base case: $54 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: -1% / -33%

Vs latest close: Bull -1% · Base -19% · Bear -33%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $66 (p=25%)Base Target: $54 (p=45%)Bear Target: $45 (p=30%)

Commentary

This is a T+1 earnings follow-up with high headline buzz but only partial post-print digestion. Primary-source evidence is strong and mixed: the company delivered a revenue beat, raised full-year revenue guidance, and reiterated breakeven goals, yet the stock fell from the $60.40 May 1 anchor to $56.73 on May 4, 2026, implying the market weighed the EPS/loss profile, settlement charge, and remaining execution risk more heavily than the top-line beat. Reliable analyst target or rating revisions were not yet available at this stage, which keeps the memo in monitoring mode rather than supporting a stronger directional upgrade.

As of 2026-05-04 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Post-earnings digestion after revenue beat but EPS/litigation noise
Execution toward Q4 FY26 adjusted EBITDA breakeven remains the core rerating hook

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$66 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$54 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$45 / p=30% prob

Price $67 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 1%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull -1% · Base -19% · Bear -33%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

-0.20

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-21
May 21 investor day could tighten the H2 growth and margin narrative
Twist scheduled an Investor Day for May 21, 2026, where management plans to discuss strategic initiatives, growth opportunities, and the roadmap ahead; this is the nearest company-set event that could either validate the raised outlook and H2 NGS acceleration plan or expose how much of the margin and breakeven path still depends on execution [#IR-2026-04-21].
Prob 40.00% • Move 6.00% • Priced-in 30.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Post-earnings digestion after revenue beat but EPS/litigation noise
2026-05-12
Fiscal 2Q26 revenue rose 19% to $110.7M, gross margin reached 51.6%, and full-year revenue guidance was raised to $442M-$447M, but GAAP net loss widened to $44.0M with a $7.2M quarterly litigation-settlement charge tied to an approximately $17.1M settlement in principle; shares traded at $56.73 on May 4, 2026 versus the $60.40 pre-print anchor, showing that investors focused on earnings quality and cash burn as much as the top-line beat [#8-K-2026-05-04].
Prob 65% • Move -4% • Priced-in 70%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Execution toward Q4 FY26 adjusted EBITDA breakeven remains the core rerating hook
2026-09-30
Management reiterated a target to reach adjusted EBITDA breakeven in fiscal 4Q26, keep full-year gross margin above 52%, and drive H2 sequential growth with NGS returning to 20% growth by 4Q; if Twist delivers on that path while sustaining double-digit DSPS and NGS growth, the market could revisit a higher multiple, but slippage would likely reinforce the current cautious stance [#8-K-2026-05-04].
Prob 45% • Move 12% • Priced-in 45%

Risks

Competition is intense across synthetic biology, gene synthesis, and NGS sample-prep markets, including providers such as GenScript, IDT/Danaher, Thermo Fisher, and Illumina; stronger incumbents can pressure pricing, product breadth, and turnaround times [#10-K-2025-11-17].
GAAP loss widened in 2Q26 and cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments declined to about $172M at March 31, 2026, leaving limited room for execution misses if the breakeven timeline slips [#8-K-2026-05-04].
The securities class-action settlement remains an overhang: Twist disclosed an approximately $17.1M settlement in principle and booked $7.2M of net settlement costs in the quarter [#8-K-2026-05-04].
Twist depends on a single-source supplier for a critical DNA-synthesis component, so any supply interruption could constrain manufacturing capacity and hurt service levels [#10-K-2025-11-17].

Peers

Symbol	Summary
DHR	Danaher is a relevant operating comp because Twist identifies Integrated DNA Technologies, a Danaher business, as a competitor in core synthetic biology products and NGS sample-preparation workflows; DHR’s scale underscores the competitive pressure Twist faces on price, service, and manufacturing depth [#10-K-2025-11-17].
TMO	Thermo Fisher is a direct competitive benchmark in both gene synthesis through GeneArt and in NGS sample-preparation tools, making it a useful large-cap comp for evaluating whether Twist’s revenue growth is enough to offset its weaker profitability profile [#10-K-2025-11-17].
ILMN	Illumina is not a full business-model match, but Twist cites it as a competitor in NGS-focused sample-preparation markets; that makes ILMN a relevant read-through for platform adoption and competitive intensity in genomics workflows [#10-K-2025-11-17].

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-04

AI Stock Memo: TWST - Twist Bioscience - RankAlpha