NTNX

AI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Nutanix

As of 2026-05-29/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q3 FY26 beat-and-raise resets the setup • 2026-05-27

Expected move: +9%

Biggest risk

The main debate is conversion timing: supply-chain friction and longer server lead times still delay bookings-to-revenue conversion, Q4 revenue guidance landed slightly below Street, and NRR eased to 106%, so demand looks healthy but not free of execution risk.

Invalidation

Break below $41 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Secondary coverage framed the quarter as a clear beat-and-raise, with EPS cited at $0.47 versus $0.36 and revenue at about $703M versus $686.3M, while the company also beat all guided metrics, raised FY26 revenue/FCF, and pointed to stronger bookings and new-logo activity.

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-29

Base target

$57

p=50%

Bull target

$65

p=30%

Bear target

$41

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

AI, storage, and buyback roadmap adds multi-quarter upside
Secondary coverage framed the quarter as a clear beat-and-raise, with EPS cited at $0.47 versus $0.36 and revenue at about $703M versus $686.3M, while the company also beat all guided metrics, raised FY26 revenue/FCF, and pointed to stronger bookings and new-logo activity.
Packet median target is $57 versus a $48.81 anchor, implying roughly mid-teens upside.

BearKey bullets

NRR decelerated to 106%, so expansion is still healthy but is no longer accelerating.
Q4 revenue guidance came in slightly below Street, which signals near-term growth can remain lumpy even after the beat-and-raise.
Server supply constraints, elevated hardware pricing, and longer lead times continue to delay bookings-to-revenue conversion and may persist into FY27.

WatchKey bullets

Q3 FY26 beat-and-raise resets the setup

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $57 (p=50%)

Bull/Bear spread: +25% / -21%

Vs latest close: Bull +25% · Base +9% · Bear -21%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $65 (p=30%)Base Target: $57 (p=50%)Bear Target: $41 (p=20%)

Commentary

The post-print tape was constructive: NTNX was indicated about +4% after-hours and closed 2026-05-28 at $48.81 versus $46.57 the prior session, consistent with a beat-and-raise reaction. T3 analyst coverage was also supportive, but the debate is still about conversion timing and supply-chain friction rather than demand collapse, so this remains a positive-but-monitorable setup.

As of 2026-05-29 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

AI, storage, and buyback roadmap adds multi-quarter upside

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$65 / p=30% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$57 / p=50% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$41 / p=20% prob

Price $52 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 9%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +25% · Base +9% · Bear -21%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.68

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-05-27
Q3 FY26 beat-and-raise resets the setup
Q3 FY26 beat across the board: ARR reached $2.43B (+15% YoY), revenue was $703.1M (+10%), free cash flow was $197.2M, and management raised FY26 revenue to $2.82B-$2.84B and free cash flow to $760M-$780M while saying results exceeded the high end of all guided metrics. [#8-K-2026-05-27]
Prob 82.00% • Move 5.50% • Priced-in 40.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

AI, storage, and buyback roadmap adds multi-quarter upside
2026-10-31
The release highlighted Nutanix Agentic AI, the NetApp strategic alliance, NKP Metal, MongoDB integration, service-provider enhancements, and a $750M share-repurchase authorization; these can support longer-cycle demand and capital-return sentiment if bookings convert more cleanly into revenue. [#8-K-2026-05-27]
Prob 45% • Move 6% • Priced-in 25%

Risks

NRR decelerated to 106%, so expansion is still healthy but is no longer accelerating.
Q4 revenue guidance came in slightly below Street, which signals near-term growth can remain lumpy even after the beat-and-raise.
Server supply constraints, elevated hardware pricing, and longer lead times continue to delay bookings-to-revenue conversion and may persist into FY27.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
APPN	Smaller automation-software peer; closer on workflow/adoption dynamics, but with lower scale and more financial volatility than NTNX.
PEGA	Mid-cap enterprise automation peer; useful for comparing ARR durability, sales efficiency, and enterprise deal-cycle trends.
NOW	Large premium enterprise software benchmark; useful for execution and margin comparison, though not a like-for-like product comp.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-29

AI Stock Memo: NTNX - Nutanix - RankAlpha