NSTS

Rating neutralAI Memo

NSTS Bancorp

As of 2026-03-15/Confidence medium/Horizon 3m

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-03-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

Key catalyst

Next quarterly 10-Q / earnings release — watch capital ratios and reserve trends • 2026-06-13

Base target: $13 / p=55% prob

Biggest risk

Deteriorating leverage or credit trends force capital actions or dividend cuts; valuation re-rates to small-cap regional bank multiples.

Invalidation

Break below $10 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Stable deposit funding, modest NII improvement and no capital remediation lead to above-consensus earnings and multiple expansion toward low-mid teens.

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-03-15

Base target

$13

p=55%

Bull target

$14

p=25%

Bear target

$10

p=20%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Next quarterly 10-Q / earnings release — watch capital ratios and reserve trends
Capital framework / CBLR threshold risk could force capital-action if leverage weakens
Stable deposit funding, modest NII improvement and no capital remediation lead to above-consensus earnings and multiple expansion toward low-mid teens.

BearKey bullets

Deposit outflows or funding-cost pressure compressing NIM
Failure to maintain CBLR leverage thresholds requiring capital actions
Local credit deterioration increasing provision expense

WatchKey bullets

ANCHOR: {"price": 12.2, "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-13T00:00:00Z", "source": "rankalpha_api_adj_close"} ANALYST_TARGETS_REVIEWED: true Our base target (12.5) sits near the analyst median (12.25) and within the published low-high range (10.72–13.19); bull assumes multiple re-rating to ~14.0, bear assumes re-test of lows near 10.0.

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $13 (p=55%)

Target spread vs base: +12% / -20%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $14 (p=25%)Base Target: $13 (p=55%)Bear Target: $10 (p=20%)

Commentary

Market tone is neutral-to-cautious: coverage shows few analysts and a tight median target near current price, indicating limited sell-side conviction [#SERP-3]. Primary disclosures emphasize capital-framework risk (CBLR) and routine quarterly monitoring, so near-term moves will likely track capital and reserve updates in filings [#10-K-2025-03-28] [#10-Q-2025-11-13].

As of 2026-03-15 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Stable deposit funding, modest NII improvement and no capital remediation lead to above-consensus earnings and multiple expansion toward low-mid teens.

Bear Case

Deteriorating leverage or credit trends force capital actions or dividend cuts; valuation re-rates to small-cap regional bank multiples.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Next quarterly 10-Q / earnings release — watch capital ratios and reserve trends
Capital framework / CBLR threshold risk could force capital-action if leverage weakens

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-03-15Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$12.25

Range (USD)

$10.72 - $13.19

Count

Query: NSTS Bancorp Inc Common (NSTS) analyst consensus price target high low average

Nsts Bancorp Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy NSTS?
Search result #2
The 52-week high for Nsts Bancorp, Inc. Stock is $13.19 and the 52-week low is $10.72.
Extracted: $13.19, $10.72Open source
NSTS Stock Quote Price and Forecast - CNN
Search result #3
The price of NSTS shares has decreased $0.07 since the market last closed. This is a 0.57% drop. Closed at $12.25.
Extracted: $12.25Open source
Stock Quote - NSTS Bancorp, Inc. (NSTS)
Search result #4
Share Information ; Year High. 13.06 ; Year Low. 10.72 ; Exchange. NCM ; Shares Out. 5.24m ; Marketcap. 63.92m.
Open source
NSTS Bancorp Valuation - Simply Wall St
Search result #5
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target? Feb 28 2026, 0 Analysts. Share Price, US$12.25.
Extracted: $12.25Open source
Nsts Bancorp Inc Stock Price Forecast 2026, 2027, 2030 to 2050
Search result #6
For 2027, Stockscan's Analyst expects the average price target for Nsts Bancorp Inc (NSTS) is $12.18, with a high forecast of $12.85 and a low forecast of ...
Extracted: $12.18, $12.85Open source
Is NSTS Bancorp Stock a Buy? - Danelfin
Search result #7
Discover if NSTS Bancorp (NSTS) is a Buy for our AI-powered stock analytics platform. Danelfin rates NSTS probability of beating the market.
Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$14 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$13 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$10 / p=20% prob

Analysis 2026-03-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Analysis reference price unavailable. Targets are shown without scenario returns.

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Next quarterly 10-Q / earnings release — watch capital ratios and reserve trends
2026-06-13
Upcoming quarter filing/earnings (next 10-Q) will disclose updated capital ratios, allowance levels and NIM trends; use prior quarterly cadence and the 2025 10-Q as evidence of ongoing quarterly disclosures [#10-Q-2025-11-13].
Prob 85% • Move -5% • Priced-in 30%
Capital framework / CBLR threshold risk could force capital-action if leverage weakens
2027-03-15
Company disclosed in the 2024 10-K that failure to exceed CBLR leverage thresholds would require returning to fully phased-in Basel III risk-based ratios, which could imply capital-raising, dividend reduction, or retained-earnings actions if leverage weakens [#10-K-2025-03-28]. Expected market attention as capital ratios are updated in upcoming filings.
Prob 40% • Move -18% • Priced-in 20%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

No long-term catalysts

Risks

Deposit outflows or funding-cost pressure compressing NIM
Failure to maintain CBLR leverage thresholds requiring capital actions
Local credit deterioration increasing provision expense

Peers

Symbol	Summary
CLST	Similar regional savings-bank profile and market-cap peer; useful comparator for deposit and NIM dynamics.
FNWB	Comparable community bank with similar asset scale and sensitivity to local credit and deposit trends.
FSEA	Regional bank peer with small-cap funding and reserve-cycle exposure; helpful for benchmarking credit-loss trends.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: NSTS Bancorp Inc Common (NSTS) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-03-15

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Symbol

Summary

CLST

Similar regional savings-bank profile and market-cap peer; useful comparator for deposit and NIM dynamics.

FNWB

Comparable community bank with similar asset scale and sensitivity to local credit and deposit trends.

FSEA

Regional bank peer with small-cap funding and reserve-cycle exposure; helpful for benchmarking credit-loss trends.