NMRA

Rating neutralAI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Neumora Therapeutics

As of 2026-05-15/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

KOASTAL-2 and KOASTAL-3 joint topline data in Q2 2026 • 2026-06-30

Expected move: -3%

Biggest risk

The post-earnings package did not fundamentally de-risk the story because there was no efficacy readout in the quarter; the stock remains mainly a binary KOASTAL vehicle, and the 10-Q says existing cash covers at least the next 12 months but additional financing will be needed to pursue the longer-term plan [#10-Q-2026-05-07].

Invalidation

Break below $1 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The May 7, 2026 company update kept the core bullish setup intact: KOASTAL-2/-3 readout is still due in Q2 2026, NMRA-511 and NMRA-898 still have 2H26 data hooks, and cash of $147.1 million was guided to support operations into 3Q27 [#8-K-2026-05-07].

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-05-15

Base target

p=45%

Bull target

p=25%

Bear target

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

NMRA-511 MAD expansion data in Alzheimer’s disease agitation
NMRA-898 Phase 1 MAD data in schizophrenia
The May 7, 2026 company update kept the core bullish setup intact: KOASTAL-2/-3 readout is still due in Q2 2026, NMRA-511 and NMRA-898 still have 2H26 data hooks, and cash of $147.1 million was guided to support operations into 3Q27 [#8-K-2026-05-07].

BearKey bullets

KOASTAL-2 and KOASTAL-3 remain the dominant valuation drivers, so a weak or mixed Phase 3 readout could pressure the shares sharply.
Program execution still depends on timely clinical progress, third-party trial conduct, and acceptable safety/tolerability across multiple CNS assets, which keeps forward visibility low [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
R&D expense remains elevated at $38.6 million for 1Q26 and the company still generated a $53.5 million quarterly net loss, limiting room for execution misses [#8-K-2026-05-07].

WatchKey bullets

KOASTAL-2 and KOASTAL-3 joint topline data in Q2 2026

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $2 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +143% / -57%

Vs latest close: Bull +143% · Base -3% · Bear -57%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $5 (p=25%)Base Target: $2 (p=45%)Bear Target: $1 (p=30%)

Commentary

This remains a cautious monitoring-style post-earnings memo, not a thesis upgrade. The packet scheduled follow-up references an earnings date of May 12, 2026, but the primary company earnings source checked was the May 7, 2026 8-K and attached press release for 1Q26 [#8-K-2026-05-07]. The release largely reiterated the existing catalyst calendar and runway rather than adding a new operating surprise. Secondary checked coverage suggested only a slight EPS beat versus consensus, and no strong delayed analyst-revision wave was evident in retrieved sources. With NMRA trading around $1.97 on May 15, 2026, sentiment appears muted despite large nominal target upside, which is consistent with a market waiting for KOASTAL data rather than rewarding the quarter itself.

As of 2026-05-15 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

NMRA-511 MAD expansion data in Alzheimer’s disease agitation
NMRA-898 Phase 1 MAD data in schizophrenia

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$5 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$2 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$1 / p=30% prob

Price $2 as of 2026-05-29

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 3%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +143% · Base -3% · Bear -57%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

-0.20

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-30
KOASTAL-2 and KOASTAL-3 joint topline data in Q2 2026
Neumora reiterated on May 7, 2026 that both Phase 3 studies were fully enrolled in 1Q26 with more than 400 patients per study and remain on track for a joint topline readout in the second quarter of 2026; with the stock still trading near $2, this remains the clearest near-term binary re-rating event after the prior KOASTAL-1 setback [#8-K-2026-05-07] [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Prob 90.00% • Move 60.00% • Priced-in 45.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

No short-term catalysts

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

NMRA-511 MAD expansion data in Alzheimer’s disease agitation
2026-10-15
Management said NMRA-511 remains on track for multiple-ascending-dose expansion data in 2H26 after earlier Phase 1b findings and still expects to start a Phase 2 study in 1Q27; a clean higher-dose efficacy and tolerability signal would help diversify the thesis beyond navacaprant [#8-K-2026-05-07] [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Prob 65% • Move 25% • Priced-in 20%
NMRA-898 Phase 1 MAD data in schizophrenia
2026-11-15
Neumora continues to guide to 2H26 data from the ongoing NMRA-898 MAD study, where management is aiming to identify a maximum tolerated dose and confirm CNS penetration; positive pharmacology and tolerability data would broaden the pipeline narrative, but this is still a secondary driver versus KOASTAL [#8-K-2026-05-07].
Prob 60% • Move 18% • Priced-in 15%

Risks

KOASTAL-2 and KOASTAL-3 remain the dominant valuation drivers, so a weak or mixed Phase 3 readout could pressure the shares sharply.
Program execution still depends on timely clinical progress, third-party trial conduct, and acceptable safety/tolerability across multiple CNS assets, which keeps forward visibility low [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
R&D expense remains elevated at $38.6 million for 1Q26 and the company still generated a $53.5 million quarterly net loss, limiting room for execution misses [#8-K-2026-05-07].
The 10-Q states current cash is expected to fund at least the next 12 months, but the company anticipates needing additional financing to fund its long-term plan, leaving future dilution or capital-raising risk material [#10-Q-2026-05-07].

Peers

Symbol	Summary
LRMR	Small-cap clinical-stage CNS biotech with event-driven valuation and financing sensitivity; useful for framing binary readout risk, though not a direct mechanism match.
TARA	Clinical-stage small-cap biotech comparator for funding/runway and data-driven volatility rather than disease overlap.
IMMX	Loose small-cap biotech market-cap peer that helps frame financing and trial-execution risk, but operating overlap is limited.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-05-15

AI Stock Memo: NMRA - Neumora Therapeutics - RankAlpha