AI Stock Memo: MTW - Manitowoc - RankAlpha

MTW

Rating sellAI Memo

Manitowoc

As of 2026-02-01/Confidence high

Open ticker Back to Memos

Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

sell

Confidence

high

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Quarterly earnings & guidance (estimated) • 2026-04-30

Expected move: -13%

Biggest risk

Ongoing order weakness, backlog cancellations, and margin erosion force consecutive earnings cuts and multiple compression, driving the stock toward the $9.09 analyst low.

Invalidation

Break below $9 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

Sustained order recovery and visible margin expansion from mix and cost reductions prompt consensus upgrades and multiple re-rating, lifting the stock toward the $20 analyst high.

Research note

Recommendation

sell

Confidence

high

As of

2026-02-01

Base target

$11

p=60%

Bull target

$20

p=15%

Bear target

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Near-term backlog/order revisions
Construction cycle recovery and margin improvement
Sustained order recovery and visible margin expansion from mix and cost reductions prompt consensus upgrades and multiple re-rating, lifting the stock toward the $20 analyst high.

BearKey bullets

Cyclical downturn in construction demand
Input-cost and supply-chain pressure
Interest-rate driven capex pullback

WatchKey bullets

Quarterly earnings & guidance (estimated)

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

sell

Model confidence

high

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Base case: $11 (p=60%)

Bull/Bear spread: +66% / -25%

Vs latest close: Bull +66% · Base -13% · Bear -25%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $20 (p=15%)Base Target: $11 (p=60%)Bear Target: $9 (p=25%)

Commentary

Near-term sentiment is cautious-to-negative: consensus median target ~$10.50 sits below the anchor and sell/reduce ratings dominate, signaling limited upside. A small minority of analysts retain high $20 targets—asymmetric tail upside but low implied probability; near-term catalysts (earnings/backlog) will likely determine direction absent a clear demand pickup [#SERP-4], [#SERP-2].

As of 2026-02-01 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Sustained order recovery and visible margin expansion from mix and cost reductions prompt consensus upgrades and multiple re-rating, lifting the stock toward the $20 analyst high.

Bear Case

Ongoing order weakness, backlog cancellations, and margin erosion force consecutive earnings cuts and multiple compression, driving the stock toward the $9.09 analyst low.

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Near-term backlog/order revisions
Construction cycle recovery and margin improvement

Human Analyst Targets

External snippets for comparison only; verify at source.

Unverified externalLast fetched 2026-02-01Source quality: external scrape

External snippets are unverified; treat as directional signals only. Always confirm with the original provider.

Inline RA est

Provider

serper

Median (USD)

$10.50

Range (USD)

$9.09 - $20.00

Count

Query: Manitowoc Company Inc Common (MTW) analyst consensus price target high low average

MTW Stock Forecast - Manitowoc Company Inc - Alpha Spread
Search result #1
Wall Street analysts forecast MTW stock price to drop over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MTW is ...
Open source
Manitowoc Co Analyst Ratings and Price Targets | NYSE:MTW
Search result #2
Manitowoc Co Inc has a consensus price target of $13.03 based on the ratings of 9 analysts. The high is $20 issued by Credit Suisse on August 9, 2023.
Extracted: $13.03, $20.00Open source
The Manitowoc Company, Inc. (MTW) Price Targets
Search result #3
The forecasts range from a low of $10.00 to a high of $10.00. The average price target represents a decline of 22.66% from the last closing price of $12.93.
Extracted: $10.00, $12.93Open source
The Manitowoc Company (MTW) Stock Forecast & Price Targets
Search result #4
The 4 analysts that cover The Manitowoc Company stock have a consensus rating of "Sell" and an average price target of $10.5, which forecasts a -22.34% decrease ...
Extracted: $10.50Open source
MTW - The Manitowoc Company, Inc. (NYSE) - Share Price and News
Search result #5
The average one-year price target for The Manitowoc Company, Inc. is $9.69. The forecasts range from a low of $9.09 to a high of $10.50. A stock's price target ...
Extracted: $9.69, $9.09, $10.50Open source
Manitowoc Company (MTW) Stock Forecast, Price Targets and ...
Search result #6
The average price target is $10.00 with a high forecast of $10.00 and a low forecast of $10.00. The average price target represents a -23.66% change from the ...
Extracted: $10.00Open source

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$20 / p=15% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$11 / p=60% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$9 / p=25% prob

Price $12 as of 2026-05-28

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 13%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +66% · Base -13% · Bear -25%

Sentiment & Exposure

Sentiment unavailable: insufficient coverage

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-04-30
Quarterly earnings & guidance (estimated)
Estimated late‑April release could update guidance and backlog detail; expect potential repricing around results [#SERP-2].
Prob 65.00% • Move 12.00% • Priced-in 50.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Near-term backlog/order revisions
2026-05-02
Analyst consensus and recent coverage show downward near-term targets and a sell tilt, raising risk of an order/backlog revision or weaker guidance that could pressure shares [#SERP-2], [#SERP-4].
Prob 45% • Move -18% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Construction cycle recovery and margin improvement
2027-02-01
A multi-quarter recovery in construction activity and improved mix/operational leverage could lift margins and drive re-rating versus current analyst medians; longer-term view given cyclicality [#SERP-5].
Prob 25% • Move 60% • Priced-in 20%

Risks

Cyclical downturn in construction demand
Input-cost and supply-chain pressure
Interest-rate driven capex pullback
Order backlog reductions or weaker guidance

Peers

Symbol	Summary
TEX	Terex — lifting/crane OEM; demand-sensitive peer.
CAT	Caterpillar — broad construction OEM; macro cycle and aftermarket benchmark.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Human targets: serper
Targets query: Manitowoc Company Inc Common (MTW) analyst consensus price target high low average
Analysis date: 2026-02-01