MTN

Rating neutralAI MemoPost-earnings T+3

Vail Resorts

As of 2026-06-11/Post-earnings T+3/Confidence medium

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-06-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

neutral

Confidence

medium

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q3 earnings reset and lower FY2026 outlook pressure near-term sentiment • 2026-06-08

Expected move: -8%

Biggest risk

The bear case is that two consecutive guidance reductions, lower Q3 profitability, and weaker early pass sales suggest more than one-off weather disruption, especially if destination visitation and ancillary spend stay soft or consumers resist pricing into the next season. [#SEC-8K-2026-06-08] [#SEC-8K-2026-03-09]

Invalidation

Break below $118 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The bull case is that fiscal 2026 reflects an unusually poor snow year rather than a broken model: management still emphasized stability from advance pass sales, cost discipline, record guest satisfaction, and early positive results from lift-ticket and marketing changes, which could help visitation and margin recovery when weather normalizes. [#SEC-8K-2026-06-08]

Research note

Recommendation

neutral

Confidence

medium

As of

2026-06-11

Base target

$136

p=45%

Bull target

$150

p=25%

Bear target

$118

p=30%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Post-earnings digestion depends on whether analysts treat weather weakness as cyclical or structurally weaker pass demand
Advance-commitment model and guest-experience initiatives can stabilize demand after a weather-disrupted season
The bull case is that fiscal 2026 reflects an unusually poor snow year rather than a broken model: management still emphasized stability from advance pass sales, cost discipline, record guest satisfaction, and early positive results from lift-ticket and marketing changes, which could help visitation and margin recovery when weather normalizes.

BearKey bullets

Early 2026/2027 pass metrics weakened, with units down about 10%, days down about 8%, and sales dollars down about 5%, raising concern about forward demand and pricing/mix.
[#SEC-8K-2026-06-08]
FY2026 guidance was reduced again from the March outlook, indicating limited buffer if late-season demand or ancillary spending stays soft.

WatchKey bullets

Q3 earnings reset and lower FY2026 outlook pressure near-term sentiment

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

neutral

Model confidence

medium

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+3

Base case: $136 (p=45%)

Bull/Bear spread: +1% / -20%

Vs latest close: Bull +1% · Base -8% · Bear -20%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $150 (p=25%)Base Target: $136 (p=45%)Bear Target: $118 (p=30%)

Commentary

Sentiment is negative near term because the June 8, 2026 earnings release paired a miss/guidance-cut narrative with weaker early pass sales, and trusted news coverage on June 9 highlighted the selloff. However, this is still mainly a cautious post-earnings monitoring view: the packet has strong company-source evidence, but delayed analyst revision evidence is thin, social coverage is absent, and the deterministic prior remains near-neutral with only modest expected returns despite a meaningful thesis-change signal.

As of 2026-06-11 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Post-earnings digestion depends on whether analysts treat weather weakness as cyclical or structurally weaker pass demand
Advance-commitment model and guest-experience initiatives can stabilize demand after a weather-disrupted season

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$150 / p=25% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$136 / p=45% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$118 / p=30% prob

Price $148 as of 2026-07-17

Nearest Scenario: Bull (∆ 1%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +1% · Base -8% · Bear -20%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

-0.58

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-06-08
Q3 earnings reset and lower FY2026 outlook pressure near-term sentiment
Vail Resorts reported lower Q3 net income and Resort Reported EBITDA year over year, cut FY2026 guidance again to net income of $128M-$162M and Resort Reported EBITDA of $735M-$755M, and disclosed early 2026/2027 pass unit sales down about 10% with sales dollars down about 5%; this is the clearest near-term driver of the stock's post-print reset. [#SEC-8K-2026-06-08] [#SEC-8K-2026-03-09]
Prob 85.00% • Move -6.00% • Priced-in 75.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Post-earnings digestion depends on whether analysts treat weather weakness as cyclical or structurally weaker pass demand
2026-09-09
Trusted coverage in the packet framed the print as an earnings miss with a guidance cut, while the company also showed weaker early pass sales. If follow-up analyst work concludes the weakness is more than weather noise, the stock can remain under pressure; if the reaction is viewed as largely weather-driven, downside may moderate. Primary delayed revision details are unavailable in the packet, so this remains a monitoring item.
Prob 60% • Move -4% • Priced-in 60%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Advance-commitment model and guest-experience initiatives can stabilize demand after a weather-disrupted season
2027-06-11
Management said the advance commitment model provided stability despite extremely unfavorable weather, highlighted record guest satisfaction, and pointed to lift-ticket product, marketing, gear, ski school, dining, and resort-investment initiatives as drivers of future visitation growth; this supports a recovery case, but evidence is still early and weather risk remains central. [#SEC-8K-2026-06-08]
Prob 45% • Move 12% • Priced-in 35%

Risks

Early 2026/2027 pass metrics weakened, with units down about 10%, days down about 8%, and sales dollars down about 5%, raising concern about forward demand and pricing/mix. [#SEC-8K-2026-06-08]
FY2026 guidance was reduced again from the March outlook, indicating limited buffer if late-season demand or ancillary spending stays soft. [#SEC-8K-2026-06-08] [#SEC-8K-2026-03-09]
The evidence packet does not include robust delayed analyst estimate or target revisions, limiting confidence on whether the post-earnings selloff has fully reset expectations.
Weather and snowfall variability remain the dominant operating risk after management described one of the most challenging western U.S. winters on record. [#SEC-8K-2026-06-08]

Peers

No peer data

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-06-11

AI Stock Memo: MTN - Vail Resorts - RankAlpha