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MTN

Vail ResortsC
NYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bull case is that fiscal 2026 reflects an unusually poor snow year rather than a broken model: management still emphasized stability from advance pass sales, cost discipline, record guest satisfaction, and early positive results from lift-ticket and marketing changes, which could help visitation and margin recovery when weather normalizes. [#SEC-8K-2026-06-08]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Early 2026/2027 pass metrics weakened, with units down about 10%, days down about 8%, and sales dollars down about 5%, raising concern about forward demand and pricing/mix. [#SEC-8K-2026-06-08]
Momentum
38
Value
49
Sentiment
67
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $136.00 · Bull $150.00 · Bear $118.00Analysis 2026-06-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $147.23
Why
Momentum38 · Δ7d -15.2
Value49 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment67 · Δ7d +5.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Early 2026/2027 pass metrics weakened, with units down about 10%, days down about 8%, and sales dollars down about 5%, raising concern about forward demand and pricing/mix. [#SEC-8K-2026-06-08]
  • • FY2026 guidance was reduced again from the March outlook, indicating limited buffer if late-season demand or ancillary spending stays soft. [#SEC-8K-2026-06-08] [#SEC-8K-2026-03-09]
  • • The bear case is that two consecutive guidance reductions, lower Q3 profitability, and weaker early pass sales suggest more than one-off weather disruption, especially if destination visitation and ancillary spend stay soft or consumers resist pricing into the next season.

Catalyst clock

2026-06-08

Q3 earnings reset and lower FY2026 outlook pressure near-term sentiment

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
38
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-15.2
Δ21d
-27.2
Value
49
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-2.0
Sentiment
67
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.6
Δ21d
+16.5
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 37.8 / Value 49.0 / Sentiment 67.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-11. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$150.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$136.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$118.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.22B
Beta
0.81
Shares Out
35.63M
P/E (TTM)
19.7
P/S (TTM)
1.62
P/FCF (TTM)
175.53
Rev YoY
-7.0%
EPS YoY
-15.7%
Gross Margin
+31.0%
Op Margin
+16.1%
Net Debt
$2.99B
Current Ratio
0.91
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data