MTG

AI MemoPost-earnings T+1

MGIC Investment

As of 2026-07-30/Post-earnings T+1/Confidence high

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Data freshness

AI Memo

As of 2026-07-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Decision Panel

Action, confidence, horizon, and decision blockers at a glance.

Action

—

Confidence

high

Horizon

—

Key catalyst

Q2 2026 results were operationally solid but mixed year over year • 2026-07-30

Expected move: -6%

Biggest risk

The bear case is that higher delinquencies, weaker persistency, lower premiums and yields, and lower year-over-year net income signal increasing credit or portfolio pressure. Analyst revisions and consensus surprise data are unavailable, so the post-print thesis remains tentative.

Invalidation

Break below $24 or thesis failure.

What would change my mind?

The bull case is supported by 14.5% Q2 ROE, $0.86 EPS, $17.8 billion of NIW, $25.08 tangible book value per share, strong PMIERs excess, and substantial authorized capital return [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].

Research note

Recommendation

—

Confidence

high

As of

2026-07-30

Base target

$29

p=55%

Bull target

$34

p=20%

Bear target

$24

p=25%

Key bullets

Fast scan of bull, bear, and watch items

BullKey bullets

Credit and portfolio-quality deterioration could pressure valuation
Capital return remains a medium-term support
The bull case is supported by 14.5% Q2 ROE, $0.86 EPS, $17.8 billion of NIW, $25.08 tangible book value per share, strong PMIERs excess, and substantial authorized capital return [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].

BearKey bullets

Analyst target revisions, estimate changes, and consensus surprise data are unavailable.
Higher mortgage delinquencies or claims could increase losses and reduce earnings.
Persistency, net premiums earned, and premium yield remain below year-ago levels.

WatchKey bullets

Q2 2026 results were operationally solid but mixed year over year

Summary

High-level snapshot

Recommendation

Model confidence

high

Timeframe

Asset

Equity

Trigger

Post-earnings T+1

Base case: $29 (p=55%)

Bull/Bear spread: +12% / -23%

Vs latest close: Bull +12% · Base -6% · Bear -23%

Scenario probabilities

Bull Target: $34 (p=20%)Base Target: $29 (p=55%)Bear Target: $24 (p=25%)

Commentary

Primary-source coverage is strong through the SEC 8-K, but forward visibility is limited because consensus, analyst revisions, options data, short interest, employee sentiment, and an earnings-call transcript are unavailable. The live quote snapshot was modestly below the $30.58 July 29 anchor, suggesting a mildly negative immediate reaction without enough evidence to attribute it solely to the earnings print. Social coverage was absent, so sentiment confidence remains moderate.

As of 2026-07-30 • Updated bi-weekly / post-earningsSource: Internal modelMethodology

Analyst Summary

Thesis highlights from the latest analysis

Bull Case

Bear Case

Drivers

Scannable catalysts and supporting factors

Credit and portfolio-quality deterioration could pressure valuation
Capital return remains a medium-term support

Scenarios

Bull Target (Scenario probability)

$34 / p=20% prob

Base Target (Scenario probability)

$29 / p=55% prob

Bear Target (Scenario probability)

$24 / p=25% prob

Price $30 as of 2026-07-30

Nearest Scenario: Base (∆ 6%)

Targets vs latest close: Bull +12% · Base -6% · Bear -23%

Sentiment & Exposure

News Sentiment (30d)

0.00

Social Sentiment (7d)

0.00

Events

Other notable items detected

EVENT2026-07-30
Q2 2026 results were operationally solid but mixed year over year
SEC-reported Q2 net income was $182.1 million and diluted EPS was $0.86; ROE was 14.5%, NIW rose to $17.8 billion, but delinquency rate increased to 2.37% from 2.21% and the loss ratio rose from an unusually favorable prior-year level. The earnings release is primary-source evidence [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
Prob 100.00% • Move -2.00% • Priced-in 85.00%

Short-term Catalysts

Next few weeks

Credit and portfolio-quality deterioration could pressure valuation
2026-09-30
Primary delinquency inventory and the count-based delinquency rate were higher year over year, while persistency, net premiums earned, and net premium yield were lower. A worsening housing-credit cycle could increase losses and reduce capital-return flexibility [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29].
Prob 35% • Move -8% • Priced-in 35%

Long-term Catalysts

Months to a year

Capital return remains a medium-term support
2026-12-31
MTG repurchased 6.6 million shares in Q2, authorized an additional $750 million buyback through December 2028, increased its quarterly dividend 13% to $0.17, and reported $930 million of holding-company liquidity [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29] [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-23].
Prob 70% • Move 6% • Priced-in 60%

Risks

Analyst target revisions, estimate changes, and consensus surprise data are unavailable.
Higher mortgage delinquencies or claims could increase losses and reduce earnings.
Persistency, net premiums earned, and premium yield remain below year-ago levels.
Recent officer sales are a secondary sentiment risk but do not establish operating deterioration [#SEC-FORM4-2026-07-02] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-26].
The earnings-call transcript and detailed forward commentary were not available in the packet.

Peers

Symbol	Summary
ACT	Closest same-sector and market-cap candidate in the packet; useful as a direct mortgage-insurance comparator, but no comparative operating metrics were supplied.
ESNT	Closest same-sector and market-cap candidate in the packet; relevant for mortgage-insurance valuation and credit-quality benchmarking, though current peer metrics are unavailable.

Sources

Internal and external references used in this analysis

Model source: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Human targets: serper
Analysis date: 2026-07-30

AI Stock Memo: MTG - MGIC Investment - RankAlpha